Member Info for joseywales

It's interesting how this is being kept where it is considering JP Morgan have reduced / close their short. The pace at which they have done it following the update make me think something's up.

I also think that they are stating a PBT and don't appear to be writing down any of the huge intangible they have, make me think they have had some approaches/interest which have been at undesirable levels.

I lost faith and sold what I had left here today. I think Romania is a strong proposition but funding is reliant on these diamonds and the reality is they are held up in ZIM processes. Good luck to those holding out but I only see an upside to about 1.2/1.5 if the diamonds emerge and a downside back to 0.20 which is where I originally invested ... could be even worse than that as another raise will be nigh on impossible unless at huge discount.

I think AP going to Zim to rally some support within the chambers of power over there is more a last ditch effort to save his own investment. The language in the communication to shareholders has been carefully thought out to present the most optimistic scenario.

Yes that message was not in the WG. RNS. I think the proposal was over 200. I like the business. Ingenuity has huge potential.

If nothing else I think WG and THG highlights the difficulty PE would have with NEX. If you take NEX on a forward earnings basis, it easily becomes £3 plus. It could be they are already swamped with multiple offers at the 2 to 2.50 range and it simply won’t get majority shareholder approval. This could be why no director buys are happening.

I’m watching what happens with NETW…you’d think anything shy of 4.50 is a good deal for PE.

VOD has been in a rut ever since Goldman were appointed to do that share buyback. The theory was it would negate the convertible but instead it slumped by some 10-15% and stayed there. Divi good and messaging good but like a lot of other places the market does not buy it.

JG - I'd be careful on that THG board ... some far flung fantasies there now. I hold a decent amount but I have them under ISA for long term. I will trade 20K of my holding in and out because I'm sure it will be volatile as usual. I think it will climb to the £1 mark after the next update and should see some good years in 24/25. I really got it wrong with Apollo so I am not holding out for any acquisition activity there.

I added a little HTWS this week. They've served me well before and will see what happens post update.

As for NEX ... they just will just sit there. I'm actually thinking of pulling down some cash from my managed funds into NEX. Between capital and divi it has to be set for one hell of a return over the next couple of years.

UK stock market will evaporate in years to come. Brexit sealed that fate along with umpteen other disastrous outcomes. Back in the day it would be seen as treasonous what Rees Mogg / Johnson and their merry band of numpties did and they'd be impaled on Tower Bridge!

Instead it's just more lies and a slow painful slide into insignificance on the world stage.

Well subject to no surprise in the publication of the July financials, it should re-rate then. Does not seem to be any threat to the dividend either so it's all pretty good news considering the economic backdrop they've had to weather.

When you see AO World with a market cap of 400m and this with 600m, it makes little sense to me. This is one of those where it might take some time but the money is in a safe place. Agree that 80p/£1 would be fair sort of price range and a decent discount to any kind of price which would be needed to acquire.

It’s not the first time a relatively positive update has failed to shift the SP much but to have 7m shares traded and still in the 50s is weird. Powers that be are clearly suppressing the SP.

There is a difference in RNS language between WG. and THG. Basically the last point on the THG RNS states that Apollo reserves the right to buy shares in THG. This statement is not on the WG. RNS. Is that simply because they are not permitted to buy shares in WG. because they were further down the road in terms of making a formal bid and receiving diligence packs?

Well LG, I lost 8p a share on what I was trading there. Got a horrible feeling I should have held them till Monday though. I think it shows things will happen over there at some point so hopefully I will make well on the shares I’ve held for a while.

Bought the Nex I sold back at 117 something.

Will be interesting to see what happens to WG next week. Clearly PE hunting but seems like management and key shareholders are putting good consideration into future earnings outlooks.

LG, when I checked the RSI on that timeline is was sat at 50 something. Don't listen to me right now I'm getting it wrong all over the place. Extremely lucky my foray into scaling up my THG holding yesterday for a quick trade has not lost me too dearly this morning.

The RSI from what I can see is about 41 now so heading in the right direction to become oversold. I'll be buying my shares back today ... no doubt the price will take a dip after I've done that too!!

LG / Paddyboy, it was not something I took lightly but I'm tired of capital stuck in NEX when opportunities have passed me by. I won't have my 'NEX' allocation in THG long and it was a simple math process looking at the upside/downside risk.

LG, on NEX it is mid range so not close to being oversold or overbought.

I have not tracked ASOS but it's running an RSI of 22 based on what I saw. That indeed is very oversold. Frankly I don't get how that business gets profitable so simply not one I'd touch personally so I know nothing of its financing, structure, situation etc.

Oculus, D2C is massive. Channel convergence and pricing integrity have been hot tickets for some time now for brands. Ingenuity gives OEMs the toolkit to manage something they are simply historically no good at managing. Selling ingenuity is tough though ... I always think the intercompany margin stack of these big manufacturers/brands is always a challenging stumbling block that needs to be overcome. They create obstacles to simplicity within their own business.

Out of interest, do you know if Under Armour is a client of Ingenuity?

No, because the very institutions that give them the leverage to run the short are helping them out.

I'm with you pearls. Mind you I did pile in at 76 and 75p. It's all just white noise and the way I see it a lot of shares have to be purchased tomorrow. Qube could only reduce marginally on a 10% drop and I reckon some other funds are backwards on this now.

LG, I have to be honest and say I sold some of my NEX holding to add to my THG holding so I can trade more on the white noise/fear/manipulation tactics being played out. Like you, tired on missing opportunity and happy to take the risk. Even if I end up having to buy back in at 125/130, it's irrelevant to what I potentially make on THG tomorrow/Monday. 75p seemed like a gift this afternoon.

I really got NEX wrong in terms of it taking off before the divi was paid.

I think extension is probably favourite.

I fancy that management and Apollo are trying to work out how to handle any disgruntled investors who would object to the £2 mark type deal (or maybe less). In a way it's the most complicated bit as once the deal is done the path to exit is relative simple in terms of business execution, split the businesses, list beauty on US exchange and trade sale on the My Protein side, then grow Ingenuity a bit more with soft lead access into to Apollo 'partnered' manufacturer/retailers etc.

Actually quite an exciting future for THGs management I'd say.

Put the stick down, banging it harder in the ground does not make the obelisk disappear.

Manc, I thought 76p today ... might be lower if they can push it that far but the buys are looking pretty strong so not sure they can flush out enough weak holders/doubters. Good strategy would be to flush it really low today and then they buy slowly in the AM pushing hard later in the day. If I was running the desk it's what I'd direct.

You're right about volume and the main holders. It's just that those who dance round black obolisks have come out to play on this board again.

The same entities that are buying are selling too. Take a look at Citigroup and BC rns. Simply work the price down and buy up what they can. Seems like low 80s is their target to scoop up all they can using short and long.

What happens next week with the Alpha debt?