Member Info for joseywales

Well I have to admit I just sold a little over 10K of my holding today to buy THG at 92. Probably means the ship sails on this now and I don't get them back in a week or two ... broke my own rule so will deserve it, but I had no capital spare.

Am I getting this right ... last years article when Candy bros etal were bidding, is being used on twitter to say the current Apollo deal is dead? Surely can't have that bigger impact as most can read dates if not realise the protaganists are different?

Guys, look at the trade volumes. This is not a mass exodus for the doors. A truly well executed shake up prior to run into the weekend. Only takes a few funds to do this. 110 plus again by end of day!

I’ve increased here. The SP makes little sense. Short term challenges will slowly reverse and the company seems to have navigated this tough period pretty well to date. I am sure the update will not be great and may provide a chance to top up further. I just don’t see this as a 650m cap company in mid to long term.
Like a few others, this has goodwill write down to chew through and will offer some chunky stat tax losses. Nice for PE!

Lack of demand is likely driven by the fact there is always something with the company. Seems good at innovation and then the wheels come off on the ‘go to market’ execution.
Any access to funds will be at a high premium…they need to ‘right size’ and focus on cash generative activity.
It’s a decent speculative buy at this level.

That RSI peaked my interest. Not been in this share for some years now. Always been a bit of a basketcase company in need of decent strategic direction. Seems like SP has been killed on news which was always coming. Guessing it might drop lower but seems like a decent opportunity. This could double and then some if CEO delivers.

Not so sure about 'shoot up' but it will climb. Cash is still out of equities and when that starts coming back in, funds will be looking for value shares. This clearly has long term value.
Short term you'd think it would climb in coming months....I still believe we will see some movement next week and increase into July half year results. Though right now it looks like I am way off the mark!

Shame.
I think this is being attacked to pressure a sale of US business to someone who is already in the background mobilised to take it. The value eclipses the current market cap and enables debt reduction + share buyback. However, deal would suck for long term outlook of the company. It's not about sapping the PI's patience, it's targeted at the ii's.

I sold out of WG and cannot really remember what was left. To strip out goodwill is probably a sweeping generalisation. You need to understand what it represents and its correlation to the business metrics/performance. Personally I don't think auditors challenge this enough due to its subjectivity. You end up with this lump of non-cash effect money which was paid out historically and from an acquisition point of view, a buyer's start point is always going to be current and forward earnings, cash generation, market share, barrier to entry, market share etc. Getting down to the balance, tangible assets is simple audit process but intangibles become a battleground.
Let me spin it this way, if you take Currys/Dixons ... are you really going to view the £3bn (of largely carphone) intangible sat in there when valuing the business ... of course not.

Frankly I dislike intangibles. Any buyer will ignore goodwill on the BS when tendering an offer. So in reality the non cash writedown also has no impact on valuations. Additionally as already indicated, it has no impact on the actual trading performance. It’s old ground really.
Being heavily manipulated to chokehold pi’s in my view. Maybe something will come out of AGM.

Scheduled for 15th May. Nothing was scheduled for yesterday.

If Qube was playing with your money you would certainly want some explanation behind that short increase. Whilst there might be a degree of downward trend whist waiting on news, feeds that push the Sp upwards could literally come any time.

As I said my protein for nestle, not the whole business. Lets them diversify quickly into the space. They can add margin by in-house manufacture and development…it’s what they do…buy something that already sells well. Ditto Kraft and a few others.

Tesco makes no sense as a fit for the whole business…just like when they were mentioned on the CURY board. Some junior city guys are being pranked and need to understand the businesses they talk about.
Agree nestle would want my protein but Kelso already highlighted that.
This is a sit tight job but great post regarding fever tree comparison on market cap. Would expect multiple offers coming in May/June. Might all be rejected but will re-rate the Sp moving forwards.
MW rapid reduction is tell tale. They are always a hedge fund to have an eye on.

Certainly been frustrating. I just think the funds have been using the period as an opportunity to get averages down etc. Hopefully a lot of share need to be bought back including the shorts. Kind of worrying that Systematica and GLG have not reduced further during that sub 120 period. Just hope this is the start of a steady rise through to the H1 results in July.

Great to see some sensible contributions on here from Oke and co. Around metrics of the actual business. Exiting times regardless of a deal or not and sure this will re-rate anyway over £1. Clearly looks like the deal needs to be structured at £2 plus.

It’s being oversold to keep at this level so either someone has upped their short just to keep down a little longer or we will climb a little before days end. Shorts seem to be working with some intensity this afternoon.

Not sure if its quite £1 but the 70/80p value seems about right. There's a decent amount of facets to this business. Personally I'd like to see more on the aftermarket side. Bring more in-house with greater discipline/change in management to grow in and OOW servicing and refurbishment. Change the structure of tech support also - there's a truly untapped avenue here.
What I don't like is the intangibles but then the market has already priced that in.
Plenty for PE to get stuck into for profit growth and scalability. One of my faves for PE offer due to SP level, stage in business and 'low hanging fruit' appeal.

Shorters are selling well into the stop losses but it looks like this is getting heavily oversold right now (assuming there's not a real seller in the background).

Your comment just made me think of something I've not really looked into. When it comes to coach, when they add all these new routes, I assume that is relatively capital light and basically leverages all their existing infrastructure? Their presentations are usually good and it will be interesting to hear how they could effectively grow that coach through Europe if it is indeed capital light compared to the bus/other transit contractual business.