Member Info for joseywales

In a round about way it looks like someone has taken options on nigh on 5% of the business and it looks like they want to remain unknown by using the cash-settled equity swap. Whoever JP are acting for can acquire the voting rights by exercising the option. That's purely my understanding ... and can I take my earlier post back!
Will be interesting so see how the shorts react tomorrow .... since they will know a hell of a lot more about an action like this.

Right now I really would not fuss about the share price. In fact it's one of those rare times that it would be really nice if it stayed at this level for another week.
I see various issues over a sale. Number one is that buyers will be looking for bargain basement pricing only. Keep eyes on Apollo and what they come back to WG. with - bet it will be sub 300 still and that would be like NEX selling for 250! These companies are more likely to increase equity stake than acquire ... that's what will start driving pricing up in these undervalued companies.
There's a lot of cash out there and if rates start pulling back in 2024 that cash will want good homes!

I'd agree there is no reason to sell anything. I also don't think we will see any offer for the entire business any time soon.
So long as NEX deliver on plan and the turbulence created by the inflation/rate backdrop starts to calm, we should see a slow climb over the coming months. I'd expect the H1 results will be the pivotal moment for management to demonstrate delivery to plan, cash generation and a sustainable return to shareholders. Then back to the 2 or 300's.

It's not just LSE ... the ones I look at only have Liberum. I think there's about 3 or 4 missing. I don't think its a conspiracy, just bad news management.
Look at the positive, we all got to buy stock at these levels .... I think the general mood and continuing bank fear contagion got hold of me earlier.

Hope your right Quickdip. I suppose there's strikes all over the place at the moment and I struggle to reconcile the brutal impact on SP to something which will be transitory.
I guess these selection tools/algos are firstly picking up on debt and then picking up on a highly unionised employee structure. I'm sure when it reverses it will climb at pace.
Curry's is interesting ... I think the mix of superstore and online is a competitive advantage. The recycling/repair/tech aftermarket stuff can also be hugely profitable. They just need to structure it better. For sure volumes will be depressed on 'discretionary' tech but the growth in financing is an indicator that it's not a brutal decline (if at all). Nordics just has not gone through that Comet/Littlewoods process - that market could be an anchor for them.

Unfortunately this is not the only stock at covid lows. Like an idiot I did not sell CURy a couple of weeks back and now that’s back to where I atarted. Just so much general fear out there. I personally think the inflation thing passes quickly now and they have over cooked the rate hikes. The Uk economy also has the added brexit burden … there’ll be talks of QE in a year or so!
NEX is so baffling…it’s the fact no big fund has stepped in to take a stake or an existing one increased.

Can only assume the diamonds are being held up by the attorney general or someone in the release process. I believe that office had to sign off the court order for them to be released?
Diamonds aside, is there a general company update due soon?
I still think this is over 1p if they deliver as expected in Romania. However I guess this will drop back to the 30s if there is no positive update in the coming weeks/months.

Seems like a crazy offer but at the end of the day it’s the passengers who will pay ultimately and NEX has their valid reason laid out. Actually if they maintain margin discipline it turns into more cash.
Urgency to close could also because West Midlands is the NEX group company which is the guarantor on the medium term bond/note. No idea how significant as I’ve not read the whole document.

I don't know about patterns but my simple thought this morning when I bought at 423 was that there's 6.2% shorted that is known about so the real figure could be closer to 10%. Tuesday is unlikely to be great but it might well show that things have bottomed out in retail. If that is anywhere near the case, it's a lot of short shares to claw back.
It's only my perception /experience but I think M&S have worked to combat the discounters. Myself and others in same social circles have gone back from Lidl/Aldi .... having found the discovery mind blowing to start with and then realising how they manage it in some categories. AZ Fresh is obviously a challenge ... but it's not a price point winner it's the same day delivery slots. Range is also far more limited which is probably qudos to the Ocado tech.

This is starting to have similarities to Wood group when they had basically announced they would sell their consulting business since the share price was kept so depressed. That bit got sold to clear the debt and then obviously most know what’s going on there now. Can’t help but think there’s more than just a little pressure on them to sell the US business.
Hopefully not…but it’s strange how this is being kept so low now.

Although the retail update will likely just be a continuation of decline in basket size and the like, I imagine between now and the weekend there will be some respite. Can't imagine at 6% short, some will not be buying some back just in case there's a surprise next Tuesday. Maybe they will just hold some to kill the SP if news is worse than expected.

Oh and I read the Guardian just to put my stake in the ground Moonman.

Aah the days of Thatcher vs Foot!
Neither side actually comes out on top. Bus drivers will take an income hit for as long as the action lasts, NEX will lose revenue (and more importantly cash), Unite lose .....oh nothing ... turns out they still get their £20 a month from their members.
Actually they do pay the £75 a day to the drivers so all in all, it sucks for everyone until something amicable is agreed.
It does however need to make commercial sense and its unfortunate but sometimes unions are blinkered in that respect.

Finally sold what I had left in CPI and bought more NEX. Really there's 5p in the bag already and at sub 120 it's just worth going heavier into this. Happy to hold till then but I think we will start seeing a significant climb if interest rates end up being called 0.25 or even paused. Any company performing well but holding debt will re-rate on signals of rates calming.

I think we might well see that problem across the board from pension funds. It's almost like it was when those numpties last year had a brain fart of a budget.

It's not really about the 10% plus, it's more about the security of the job roles moving forwards. When it comes to rail, it's hugely contentious as many would argue a significant move to driverless trains and investment in technologies would greatly reduce go forward cost and ultimately become cheapest mode by far. The unions will never let such a thing happen which is why it's a double edge sword for a NEX investor. They really do work well to inhibit change within the rail infrastructure and leave it with a cost burden which is simply too high.
As more cities look at the ULEZ type model and no doubt vehicle criteria becomes more onerous to avoid it, buses have an interesting future.

Probably a lot of pension funds and the like in that 17bn. Your person on the street does not get the impact this will have and it will be those pension holders who opted for 'conservative' investment profiles who get hit the worst. The companies that pick at the pieces and buy what are now likely classified as junk bonds will make the money! A bit like what Goldman did when buying that $20bn+ of assets from SVB just prior to collapse ... money goes to money!

I was thinking share buyback would be good. Actually, clearing some debt down might be better.
This price is sickening but actually I don't think it will be that long. Myself like others may be wanting it to remain down here till April 6th. I'd be putting most my ISA allowance into this one for sure and my luck ratio pretty much means that this goes back up by then!
More seriously I think we will see this turbulence for a few weeks. People will be taking big hits ... particularly bond holders and those financial institutions may well be forced to liquidate other assets (which they'd rather hold) just to generate cash on the books. So the shorts will do very well.

I don't mind following shares which are well shorted like this. Whilst you question your sanity from time to time, you have to remember the algos built into the systems these companies use map human behaviour, patterns and a myriad of factors outside of the company fundamentals. They are designed to create exactly the kind of thread in the chat and will only get worse as AI will start to manage news threads more effectively as well.
The bottom line is there will be people that will sell all the way from 120-140 now ... and sub 140 seems to be the magic number for these guys on NEX. They probably just need to keep it down at 120 a while longer to create enough frustration/apathy/boredom with this stock.

I was trying to find the pre-IFRS debt amount but I think that becomes a wash against that 219p.
If you then take the 400m EBITDA and whack a 6x multiple on it ... that'll be around 350p. That's probably the ballpark that an institutional investor would consider exit. So long as NEX deliver on some of the presentation comments, that figure should only climb.
That's why I don't think an offer is in process ... these equity houses are looking to grab value in a depressed market, not a fair value transaction.
In addition, the space is still very fractured ... particularly in the USA. You'd think that any sale to trade would be on a piece by piece basis.
The next challenge to the business past the strike will likely be concern over the US debt ceiling negotiations. I assume a lot of the school bus business is state and federal run. There's always going to be something just like any other business!
Heard this morning that Rolls Royce is quite literally going to the moon!!