Member Info for joseywales

I think the fact the crazy report has been debunked is great. However put yourself in their shoes. This game will switch to attacking renewals and stalling sales which we know is the real elephant in the room at the moment and will likely prevent any new institutional investment.
Whilst there may also be another 2/3% short under the 0.5 reporting threshold which could create a squeeze short term, I imagine MW happy to wait till the March update.
I’d love 3.50 plus within weeks but I am figuring on a bumpy ride till a few weeks after March’s update.
The timing of the short mixed with current real growth challenges is seriously unfortunate as QCM might just get scalded rather than burnt to a crisp.

This debt is no red flag. It sounds like March will have climb in revenue….on incredibly simple level, higher revenue on same debt is good use of debt and profitable growth.

The potential diamond mine was described by Perea in late 2020 as being $9-14m per month delivering free cash of $3-7m per month. Now you annualise that and work out where potential market cap should sit! The multiple of where it sits today is staggering really.
I know people wanting a win next week want the diamond parcel to be real and not a bag of stones. In the long term it really won't matter if real progress gets made in the coming months on the mine. In terms of carat value, the interview states $65-100 per carat (as at that time) - so that give an idea what that parcel could be worth if it comes off.
You then add Romania into the mix. We need news on the 14K tonnes per month being achieved, but have to assume that becomes significantly cash generative. I cannot find figures on this but you don't reach 'nameplate production' to be losing money! Then there's the matter of the one they need to get off care and maintenance but that kind of sounded like a cash/financing issue.
So actually at 0.65 it looks like a good buy even if nothing ever comes of the diamonds and diamond mine? What is the opposing view of this and are there any numbers supporting a significant downside to this as an investment?

Yep, no confidence in their own report and that selfie posting twat will still be having his eggs florentine in the Waldorf while many investors have suffered I expect. I hope the Charlie gives him the mother of all nosebleeds.

GLG seem to be reducing their short at 0.01 at a time. Pure conjecture but if they want to clear down their short significantly between now and March’s update, we should see a jump in next few weeks. I’ve read more of the historic docs etc and it really seems hard to punch any holes in an investment argument. Also this seems to be a company chat where no-one seems to credibly create an argument against investment (aside maybe short term). Quite refreshing!

I went on QCMs twitter account and they had a link to FT for Schools with the DT article. It you were running that show I don’t think you’d want to be sending your followers to a pice where Numis are declaring it a swing and miss. It’s a massive brain fart and they must be the laughing stock of NYCs financial corridors.
They could also be under pressure from their own investors to get the hell out of dodge ASAP.

More seriously I am guessing they are 10-12m shares short. Forgetting dodgy claims and the like ... could they mount a proper system against the share price to effectively manage their exit? Need a whistleblower from inside the hedgefund world to answer that I guess....I imagine QCM would place the task with one of the quantative math algo companies out there.

Do you think they had a Wolf of Wall Street style office party high fiving and getting wasted when the report was complete. One of them stands on a table and claims 'this is going to be the biggest thing since Star Wars' .... and then the report drops...oh

Every £s a prisoner DBH. I have been buying and that would put my average up to 0.50 ... my perceived value estimate is 1 to 1.4p without the diamond rush and a 12-18 month window if I need to leave it there that long. No credit claimed here .. dumb luck as I did not even know about the whole diamond saga when I bought first. Had concentrated on Romania mostly.

Can't we get some more comments from Cassandra and Aimmaster or are they sleeping over on the east coast. It's Friday and the weekend should start with some comedy.

I've just put in an opportunistic buy order at .55. It seems there is some game playing and stuff but looking at fact and what is known today, the existing core business is on the turn and that basis sits completely separate to this diamond/Zim saga which is a huge bonus to an already undervalued share in my opinion.
I tried the day trading thing back in 2010s. Good luck to you and well done for having cohonis the size of watermelons.

That's massive from Numis. As that starts getting picked up things are going to swing very quickly I imagine. In fact they could even get over-cooked as a lot will not look past the short saga and realise that March update/results presentation might not be all roses and petals. It goes back to being a nice long which could again nudge the 350 type mark over the next 12 months. (That is without a suitor stepping up of course).

It will have a way to go yet but I would estimate over 235/240 QCM go in the red. Their not a big house so when they do these things they need them to pay off. If this were to go back to 3.20 or higher then QCM might not be able to write the ticket to buy back the shares. No idea of their financial structure but they have court cases and god knows what else going on.
It was a question I had about shorting actually ... what happens to when share are lent and then the company goes chapter 11 or like ... is the pension fund/broker/institution left hanging with a hole in their books?
I think Marshall Wace have a much higher breakeven point looking at declaration timeline ... so are already in the money.

CR888…as well as any general recovery in tech stock, more importantly is buzz around AI again. Mostly brought on by generative AI and chatgpt stuff … but that will crossover to anything AI driven.

Aimaster…just saw your chat on CPI (another MW short). Didn’t bother looking at the others.
Do you call them Marshall Wallace deliberately instead of Marshall Wace? Don’t blame you for following them as they are rather good at what they do. Just remember the story about the frog and the scorpion.

That's a funny comment below. Not Warren .... lucky hopefully. Took a big hit on DARK and whilst I have bought back into them a little I put more of a chunk into this on Monday/Tuesday. Like I've said in earlier posts, I was looking into this and wondering where the issue lies. I guess the risk is no divi leads to more short attack but long term, this really does look like a great share. Last update looked good so strange it went 180-130 in the first place.

Has that Cassandra been kicked off then. I don't think anyone in their right mind was buying what she was selling. It was amusing...going on about Grant Thornton and some nonsense about Tesla and a bakery.
How about on day 3 or 4 of the battle KKR/or other investor increase stake and wipe out all the additional free float created by the shorters. That'll be fun.
I wonder how the people who have provided funds to QCM feel about it right now. They clearly did not get to see the report before handing over the money. Let's face it , in terms of credibility it was just shy of claiming DT group abused Mickey Mouse in a staff cloakroom.
Saw the increase from Marshall Wace and hoping it was just a timing thing prior to DT's rebuttal. I'm surprised they would be piggybacking on this but I guess ethics may be low on the company mission statement.

MM's only make off the spread. You just have profit takers and also those willing to take the risk to sell now on basis news will be light until reality of these diamonds is confirmed or not.
What you need is some sort of news when they collect the diamonds that they are indeed real and there ... the hysteria then starts over again.
On the other side of the day to day business, debt looks manageable and Romania/Taji looks good. Whilst I was a late investor at 0.2, the underlying business looked way undervalued to me if they started delivering. That seems to be happening now. I got more at .65 today. My view is this becomes 1-1.4p within 12 months and that's completely ignoring diamonds and Zim. Once the 'diamond' run era is over, I think more investors will join the VAST journey. Realise it's not been so fun for the multi-year travellers with this one and hope the diamond dream materialises.

The fees a holder gets when lending out shares is nominal .... I don't really understand their motivation.
There's been so many attempts to further regulate shorting and transparency of hedge fund activity. The bottom line is you need to understand as a PI you are fighting against the curve. The hedge funds, MMs, brokers, banks are all ultimately and incestuously intertwined in the actual flow of the money. Where that £ starts and ends gets touched by each effectively and all need a slice of the pie and profit. It why I have 70% of many in managed funds ... you simply can't continually beat a system rigged to the detriment of PIs. Ultimately ETFs and the like will kill off PIs in listed companies .... its why there are more and more opportunities to invest outside the market and with it far greater risk. Nasdaq already runs some kind of pre-IPO market space which currently is only open to institutions I believe not PI's yet.

Very interesting JG68. Pleased I'm invested.
That sort of explanation and fact is what would put them on PE radar. Also when looking at transportation on global basis it's still hugely fractured. I think the flip side is the institutional ownership knows what they are sat on so won't go cheaply. I usually just ignore 'takeover; claims on this chatroom but there is some validity here. Similar to how I see Jupiter at the moment.
That aside, you are right about Bailey....the guys an atmosphere hoover and could empty the room of any great dinner party!