Member Info for joseywales

Will top up investment of back to 6s. Imagine shorters are in on action. Just like traders are gambling on a package of diamonds…shorters could gamble on the windscreen glass someone mentioned.

On 600K traded and rises across the market. It's optimistic.
That said you'd think will likely wind down positions between now and results ... unless hedging a long of course.

I'd like to buy again and it's really tough to decide. I took a loss Monday morning and bought only a small percentage of what I had again. I've been looking at how QCM faired when trashing Penumbra Inc and the chart only shows a downside for a month or so. I also cannot find any update or result for the Williams vs Penumbra case which had a counter claim for alleged spurious claims which impacted it's share price in the end (QCM claimed they made up a fictitious doctor/expert). The price dip did not last long so can only assume QCM lost their shirt on that one (or at least their investors money).
I just wonder if impending update is not great, whether there will be one last hooray for the 'professional' shorters to trash then clear. MW clearing down a decent chunk of their short would be a decent sign!

Out of interest, was the trading update the other day scheduled or did it come out of the blue?
Reason I ask is that it obviously ended any closed period.

Its a good long now.
Romania performing better. Taji seems good.
Zim - don't know yet if the diamonds are there and if you review the historic trade press it is an open question. De Beers also walked away from the mine previously prior to VAT involvement and Anglo (who own de beers) said no when asked back apparently. I'm sure opportunity exists there but the scale is some way off being defined as too is the investment required to take it on within the JV they have. If diamonds do not realise free cash (because they are glass) then any further progress will likely need a raise to support. Given political landscape is more away from west and Russia/Belarus friendly (Bela president there this week) ... it might be worth concentrating on the other assets.
1.2p is probably fair value of Romania etc at the moment.
If this was truly going to go mental like umpteen are claiming, then directors would be piling in. The RNS was also carefully worded.
I will be a long holder and left some of my investment in ... I think in next 12-24 months this could multiply without Zim factor.
For the gamblers it's worth buying even at 1p I suppose in hope of these diamonds being good and of real value. I really hope they are the $11m plus.

Thanks JG68. I think you are referencing the AI cyber that's got a cold right now ... when I sold up and took my loss first thing Monday, I bought into this one. (Hoping to get back into the former too)!
The drop from 180 was what got me ... and how management's reaction has just been the announcement of the German contract gain which in itself is great, but all it got was a blip. Will be interesting to see where this goes in build up to March announcement.
I'm in now so hopefully it won't get attacked like the other one!!

Brilliant, forthright, honest! I like the implication that the three mentioned activities are not considered a ‘waste’. The size of any divi … I’d gamble first, win the do the next too…never good to go to the budget end of the table for either of those!

Whilst I worry about this going down further and the fact the business growth may be slowing, I do think that the more QCM put out, the less and less convincing they will be to investors/shorters etc.
I wonder if there is no honour amongst shooters. MW have the clout to properly burn QCM by clearing their short. It’s more than a ballsy lot of PIs can do.

I've not long been buying these shares at these low/mid 130s levels. Seems grossly undervalued if they get it back to anywhere near pre-covid operating profit levels.
I get there might be fear that the dividend mentioned last year might not happen in light of strikes etc. However the last update read well to me so what am I missing?
I also see the trading is dominated by AT trades so I guess there is some manipulation (with c.1.8% shorted) as the free float is small based on the institutional investments.
What was the reason for the big drop from 180 mark and no real recovery since?

I've just been playing catchup.

So Poppy's response, concise, professional and delivering on point.
QCMs is laughable if it did not have such a detrimental effect on the SP and business as it drags management into having to address pre-IPO issues. I keep saying it, but this focus on Italy (and other Italian speaking regions selling into Italy) is a real amateur hour project. Anyone who has done business in the region knows it's challenging at best yo know you customers and even harder in channel lead business.
I don't believe QCM play with their own money much .... so its the investors who put money with them who will pay the price. You'd hope Gabriel and his kronies were on the hook for tonnes ... I doubt it.

I think emotion will kick in and on the basis of no news today there will be sellers ... it would only take a few big dumps to set fear in play. Mid 70's seems like the sticking point at the moment.

I sold most of what I had and hope to buy back in. I think parking this diamond rush to one side, the company is heading in the right direction in Romania and Taji seems interesting.
If the case was heard today, it will have leaked as I assume it was not a closed court and therefore the result would be known locally and smart funds would have locals with ears to the ground. If no news comes through, I'd imagine this will see some trimming. Does anyone know the docket number/reference and in which session in presumably the Harare high court?

Someone is mentioning 3p…how does the math extrapolate to a £40m or so market cap for this business. I get the desire to ramp up the price but can someone put some basis behind the valuation.
10 plus years and Mugabe rule … is it known for fact the diamonds are in this bank vault? Also, is it known for fact this default judgement delivers the right to mine?

I think you will get time to buy back in at 2/2.10. I got some at just under 200 but nowhere near what I sold at 240. Imagine there will be a spike of people trying to buy back in this am again.

Good start to the battle. Don’t think I’ve seen share buybacks as a response to legitimate accusations like muddy did against Nmc health.
I fully expect DT may have had tradings with some companies mentioned by QCM. No doubt they need to go through the archives and dig out what they were to form a substantive response to specifics. Again the way I read it…pre IPO and additional regs and monitoring that come for listed companies.

I imagine a barrage of mud slinging will start next week when shorts are all maxed out.
What they have presented is dated and seems pre ipo. The Italian focus and claim should not surprise any one who has done business there. At worst maybe a rogue country manager. It’s a 69 page diatribe … but you need to read it. There are some fast addressable issues DT could handle at pace.
We all know the challenge around growth and renewals…I expect that will be a soft start to the mud slinging.
Expect DT might announce enquiry which will need to be lead by one of the big 4 …. Probably not grant Thornton.

Lending ... that's very interesting and now I understand better the sort of stats MW are considering.
As the business matures and scales, is there not a point at which FCF takes a more significant jump. I was under the impression that why software business are liked is because of higher FCF margins. I think the last thing I read on crowdstrike was 16% and I'd have thought they have a way uglier cost base than DT.

You'd hope we will see some mild recovery. The 'funds' will have their various analysts digging through this I am sure. QCM are already named in US court case https://dockets.justia.com/docket/new-york/nysdce/1:2022cv09409/588863 . This relates to Cassava Sciences and I think it is claims they made about Cassava's trialling of an Alzheimer's drug. Something about them speeding up the process I think.
So to get this right ... the character all these shorters are following is the type that guns down science/research companies trying to find solutions for a terrible disease (albeit for their gain down the road).
Hopefully MArshall Wace are well distanced from this guy ... the Guardian article would have me concerned being in the same sentence.
MaryBr...would love to see Amber Rudd go into battle but I'm not sure she could punch her way out a paper bag.

I think Poppy is doing the right thing by not getting drawn in just yet. Leaders knock out with one punch and she’ll need a bit of time to get square. I wouldn’t have even put the RNS out…you need killer blow the kill the short.

aaah ... I said I'd moved on from the report but I can't. It's like David Brent popped over to Italy, took a few snaps, got drunk and wrote some tosh then thought he'd better make it sound a bit better and plagiarised some material from Shadowfall who wrote the same sort of stuff a few years back.