Member Info for joseywales

The problem is that management cannot quote anything until they know what claim QCM are going to make against them. If it's that they don't like coffee drinker then I lost money selling this morning for no reason. Something more substantive and I won't feel quite so sore as I do now.

Every shorter wants you to buy right now. They will be providing the liquidity for the buys. If you really believe in the company, wait for the QCM report and if you think there's no creedence to it, buy back in. By then it will be cheaper than now anyway!

On what basis is there a deal on the horizon?
You have an activist shorter taking an interest famed for uncovering fraud / flawed product or technology claims etc. (Take a look at BIO-ON). They have a business/reputation based upon this activity so why would they deviate from their modus operandi for a bit of game playing which trashes their credibility in the future?

I think there will be a mix of other shorters getting in the game and investors not taking the chance with QCM shorting. QCM would usually publish a paper to support their claim at some point and the last time they did that it sent an SP down 20% in a day. I got rid of a large % of my holding first thing as I am not prepared to gamble on QCM playing games by making the short.
What little I left in DT is probably foolish and emotional! I really believe in DT but if QCM publish a paper and go after this ... short to mid term it will cause SP carnage and if the claims have legs it turns to disaster. Good luck to all those who stick it out ... I put some of the money from selling DARK into NEX this morning so who knows maybe I've gone from frying pan into the fire!

Interesting analogy Lending. The more I am looking into QCM the more I think we will see a paper around the technology in the coming week or so. The guy Gabriel actually talks against Long/Short strategies (interview on bloomberg) so I think they are in for discrediting DT. I imagine other funds will follow them on short and we will see this comfortably go sub 2 without DT management being able to offer significant counter arguments to any claims.
They are not abundantly active so you can take a look at the impact a short placed by QCM has on a share price in the short term. Like everyone though ... they can get it wrong!

Agree with you JG68.

I think 0.86 would be too small of a short if they really had something. If they have something I reckon technology flaw is what they'd go after.
The Lynch angle could be interesting particularly if seed funding (or similar) was used from Autonomy sale to support Darktrace. That would be a seriously long journey though. Accounting issues would generate a cash hole (as was apparent when Muddy Waters called out NCM). It kind of leaves the technology angle and if you dig deep enough I think flaws can be found in most Cybersec ... or security patch updates would never exist!!
The other link I saw about longs QCM make and in particular Sun Corp. This was related to Cellebrite. A very different cybersec player with very interesting business synergies if DT's AI tech is truly market leading. Any kind of 'partnership' would put DT in front of most law enforcement / defence departments globally.
So I'm actually wondering if their short is to cover a degree of risk on a long. However would they not be obligated to produce an RNS for any decent size holding? Or do you simply short on the one side first and then buy on the long after?
Christ knows! All I do actually know is worrying about what the Fed will do or not comes in a firm 2nd place!! In fact it probably comes third behind strawberry or apricot on a peanut butter and jam toastie.

Sounds like there will either be a challenge to the technology or the accounting practices then. Hopefully management are to the task of promptly handling any report QCM release.

Where do you get the info about MW specifically?
I thought this price was going to get trashed further before any increase. I also look at other MW shorts like Dixons / Capita / THG and Melrose ... none of them really seem to be pummelled by MW short like you could see during 2022.

From IT industry perspective the product is rated ... just the price is not and licensing structure/billing is confusing. Price will become less of an issue if rating and product proliferation delivers quality. A lot of software companies seem to get claims of confusing billing .. probably just to do with overall license and then cost per device etc. When doing research I picked up this ... it's just Microsoft resource but if DT have some sort of PR resource working with Azure/Kubenetes/AWS etc, it can't do them any harm.
https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/samples/azure/azure-quickstart-templates/darktrace-vsensor-standalone/

I was just considering the market value of the product as opposed to the company - can see why the SP might double in a couple of years if not sooner. (Excluding any type of takeover).

I'm waiting for the broker recommendation with little substance to come out at 210 or something silly. Might buy some more then. This 4 or 5% might end up being 8% by the end of the day but until MW start reducing short I think it goes back and then some next week.
Just need something to kickstart the volume and for that you need the wider flow into the market. Still too many headwinds for that to happen any time soon. Maybe a first rate reduction in September!
350-400 will come but who knows when. I'm thinking Q4 worst case ...

No probably not. I've bought but thinking it will might be 12 months before significant recovery. I think the next update will show slower growth again. Not because of the product or the team but underlying issues in UK's SME sector in particular. Whilst the cost of living crisis and inflationary responses are a global issue, the UK SME market has also been facing death by a thousand cuts due to the on going Brexit nonsense and a government which would make the worst run boardroom in the country look like a well oiled machine. My view is that UK business will continue tightening their belts whilst the detritus continues to spew out from Rees Mogg and his Brexiteer kronies strangling any kind of chance for UK to grow and succeed.
Frankly DT need to focus on landing bigger fish in large corporate and public sector and significantly more focus outside the UK. Maybe that's what the new revenue officer will be looking into.

....or current and looming legal fees need to be covered in the family? Do they still hold another another 14% between them?

Put a buy order in at 241 but I imagine it will take some going to hit that today. Will also buy more if it falls more in coming days…might just take a few months to turn. Really not buying into all the negativity.

I get what you are saying about shorters and the fundamentals. However, if you particularly look at MW, it seems to be more about taking advantage of sentiment and volumes as opposed to fundamentals. Their timing on increasing a short (as they have done on DT and THG) seems serendipitous. (Could they also be long)? They seem like a good one to follow as price gets trashed pretty quickly.
Fundamentals of DT are good .... look at the slurry of tech results from the US and DT are beating the curve. Seems like a huge reaction to marginally slowing growth.

The price seems to be dropping on relatively low volume. MW increased their short and no doubt a few followed under the 0.5% reporting threshold. Whilst volumes are low I imagine it's prime money making territory for these guys to achieve what they need to. Just need money to flow back into tech stocks generally ...
When it comes to Cybersecurity, DT seem to have an effective product. However, if the product was really good, then at this price level why are trade or tech investors not swarming around it?

Clearly no-one actually reviews the website of the company they invest in! Exact words in financial calender on DT website states:
3rd January (00.00am GMT) to mid-January (Q2 Trading Update)

The are also attending some fireside chat conference on the 12th Jan .... maybe they plan to release update in the morning so that material things of note can be discussed at this event.

Interesting how this is not breaking 270 and MW yet to reduce short ... maybe they have decent cover and can do some further damage to SP if the update is anything but positive in terms of growth forecasts being met or exceeded.

I did not buy many at 270 and wishing id' bought more ... thought it might continue downwards until closer to the update. Now it seems to be climbing steadily ... any thoughts on it going sub 270 next week or do you reckon the shorters/MMs are done with it?

Really good entry point this. Hope it drops a bit more and keep topping up as the Jan results would need to be a pretty horrific u-turn to get lower than this. Real bargain territory for a buyer but no doubt way to many are in at higher averages waiting for the 500-600 type number that cam about when TB had a look.

Doubt it will finish much past mid 23's. It's a pre-close update so no real reason for price 'surge' late in the day.
Also see the TU is not even mentioned on II platform's news feed for activity due this week. Some may not have picked up on it.

Volumes are low and it looks like AT trades are dominating the selling side ... is that shorters managing the SP effectively while volume is low?
Must be something like 20m shares short between MW and Citadel if it's 0.6% a piece? Maybe there is just a couple of days more of this 22/23p level. Between the last update and now, if there was anything adverse enough to push the SP lower than this, then it would have been in the press surely.