Member Info for joseywales

I was struggling with it JG. I think they have some kind of period of reprieve beyond October anyway. I think they have set a platform for growth very effectively. The thing I was trying to work out was fair valuation/target. With EBITDA now 400m and debt vs assets a wash. was thinking a very conservative price target should be around 2.60-80 region now - this should only become higher as new business wins turn active.

Finally got through the report. Strong set of figures, very little pre-IFRS debt now with more disposals on the cards which no doubt will wipe preIFRS out and reduce the lease liability figure too. Not a lot to dislike in the report and surprised this is not surging over 35p and beyond. Business has finally turned for the better and sounds like more to come. c.500m MCAP is grossly undervalued. Even if you just take the EBITDA number and strip out 85m preIFRS ...its 150m. So at an incredibly basic level, a conservative 6 multiple would be almost double the share price of c.30p.

Now they have stuck to their dividend policy (did not think they would), this will give funds ability to buy in which were previously excluded because of the lack of divi. Once it get securely past this 140 sticking point, should track to 180 in relatively short period...I'm sure it will pretty much be onwards and upwards from there as well.

I imagine the shorts are holding some volume and either hand them back or play some more depending on the results. If they surprise with a dividend, then maybe something positive will happen tomorrow. Past that, I fear the shorts might use stock they hold to flush out those that might have bought in for a quick win. I've freed some cash up so I might top up if results are as expected but the share price gets a tanking.

Amazing how this has been maintained at such a low price. OK, even if there is no dividend, something pretty catastrophic would need to have impacted the business since the last update for this SP to stand. The shorts are not running off and why cover a long down at these prices. I wonder if there are question marks over US business growth and profitability ... it's the only one I can imagine not getting a 'post-covid' uptick when comparing 21 to 22.
My view of anything like that would be that its a transitory issue around cost and pricing alignments which would be addressed in the short term anyway. It's just not a business facing that same sort of challenges as something like OCDO where the SP collapse can at least be logically justified.
In terms of NEX business sale ... I'd think management would want to eat into the debt to max value to shareholders. A bad time to sell and I don't think 250-300 offer now would get accepted when maybe double that is achievable in 2 or 3 years. Selling off pieces however, might be a viable option to eat the debt.

It's an interesting question in terms of what data shorts might see and how market makers might work with the hedge funds . The hedge funds would be the MMs largest customers and their venues would be competing for order flow. I imagine there are data sets they have access to and can legally share which far exceed what PI's can get, or even Bloomberg terminals. It's simply not a level playing field in that respect.
Seeing a very similar pattern on WINE just starting to happen. Obviously incomparable business metrics but it does raise the question in terms of how MMs might drive the price down on low volume. Conversely ... it's basic economics that if volume outweighs demand....price drops!
When it comes to NEX, it's almost like a psychology play ... keep it low for as long and hard as possible then PIs will sell as it climbs at a far lower rate than they originally targeted. This will all be set up within algo trading, particularly as it is more AI driven I imagine.

Longerguy ... if you look at what has just happened with John Wood Group today, I think it demonstrates the desire of larger equity houses to purchase undervalued assets (particularly US houses where domestic opportunities are more limited right now). Whether NEX has been driven down strategically or simply shorts taking advantage .... a low ball offer would not be surprising. The biggest barrier to a bid is probably the current investor profile ... would be incredibly hard to get anything low ball past them so likely there's other lower hanging fruit out there.
When there is some stability in interest rates (or at least predicable), I imagine there will be quite a bit of M&A play this year. Suitors would certainly want to get in before a larger, general recovery in the market.

I reckon it's the shorts. Would not be beyond conceivable that one of them increases to try and flush more forced sellers or daytraders out. The algos are not gaining them shares which accounts for the low volume this morning. They either buy to close or drop more liquidity in.

Anyways, unionised labour in the private sector of developed economies is always a melting pot for debate.
When it comes to NEX, this issue is a ‘this too shall pass’ scenario which should not undermine the business in the long term.
I really think the SP pressure has come from the shorts this week as they build up pressure to clear down. I’d expect we will see some healthy chunks handed back to the institutions in coming weeks…they want investors to grow tired and there’s only so many of those and forced sellers.

Makes you wonder by how much unions have increased their subs. Maybe someone should attack how much they are getting from hard working people!
What I do not get about NHS/Frontline public sector services is why there are not a raft of tax deductibles over and above private sector such as car lease, energy, travel cost etc…why can’t nhs staff have an incredibly lower tax burden.

This is down because the market knows a divi would be pushing employee/union sentiment. The quasi blindside option would be a buyback. If management standby their comments about share price frustration, then we should see that. Otherwise I imagine there will just be another push downwards temporarily after the update.

Interesting. If they are blood diamonds then Vast really should not have them or get them. Handling them would undermine their whole business by the time the press get hold of it .... in particular in Romania where it could impact on any license applications or renewals.

At the same time it's going to snow in Saudi. No facts to support that either.

This is the fact. They have the right to have the diamonds but they do not have the diamonds yet. The next stage was for the Attorney General to sign off (according to the AP podcast). No-one actually knows for fact how long that process can take. Until they are actually in Vast's legal and physical possession, it's a fact that you are taking a punt not that dis-similar to black or red on the roulette table since this will drop to 0.20 mark again if the diamond thing implodes.

I think it's just a waiting game this one. Might not be next update (if there's no divi), but later in the year it will bounce. As a more general recovery gains traction then the additional funds which come with it will seek this share out I'm sure. Would be rather pleasant if this could get to 180+ by the summer but I don't think they produce enough updates for that to actually happen.

Well Systematica and GLG increased their holding marginally so that increased liquidity helps them push down and maybe flush out some stop loss etc. I thought is was a good opportunity to buy more in the 120's and imagine will just need to be patient and buy more if it drops again significantly.
Someone mentioned directors were not doing anything but I assume the closed period just started ...hence timing of the drop/increased short.

It looks like she has transferred some of her existing stock to her brother. I suspect he will not be subject to the declarations Poppy is, when and if he sells them. Need clarity on that really as the timing is not great when the closed period starts prior to what might not be a great update in March.

Watch Eat the Rich on Netflix. You come out with a reasonable idea.
It also touches on how all these chatrooms are monitored by fund managers/their systems to avoid Gamestop/AMC style situations. I imagine they probably participate too in some roundabout way.
If you want some amusement take a look on VAST chat at the moment ... it's real ramp and dump then do it again kind of merry-go-round.
The FCA have set up a call for evidence to review short selling on the UK exchange. Submissions are required by end of March I think.

Prelea said on his podcast that the Attorney General has to sign off on the release after the signed High Court Ruling is received. He could not commit to any timeline.

Sorry but I am playing catch-up. Has someone compared the investment argument for NEX to RR.?
That’s frickin moronic on so many different levels. Do they actually understand RR. Revenue streams?