Member Info for joseywales

'non cash impairment' should be the takeaway. Eventually goodwill has to disappear from the balance sheet ... it's one of the few lines that can be massaged either way frankly and means little to the actual business.

Point well made. Those genuinely shocked at results probably need to do more research. If anything I would expect more suitors to join the fray in coming weeks.
I hope they get the dip they want today as I too would buy more.
Slight net debt improvement is the positive city analysts would get.

I opted for CURY. I think NEX is being played well. On the odd morning it starts to pull away, it gets truly reigned into range. Reminds me of the AA. While I still don’t believe a reasonable offer imminent, some of the hallmarks are certainly familiar.
I think when it happens, this one could end up as a stand off between management and institutional investors. The latter holding for 350-400 and former happy at 250-300.

Frankly it's not too late to buy THG. I missed out on NETW initial rise from 250-300 but took s spin at 300 last week based on my belief NETW value needs to be 400-450 to make it work for investors. THG already balked at 140 so I think Apollo will need to be 175-200 plus if they proceed.
US Equity will be looking but I think there are softer targets than NEX out there. That said, if interest is there, then you need to think an offer needs to be tabled prior to any significant changes to inflation/rate environment and the money flow away from bonds and into equities.

Well there you go ... news just out on THG. Maybe the same could happen to NEX the day before May's update!

THG has been a great trading share. I bought last week at 65 as I felt it simply would not go sub 60 again. I think there is little downside to holding into the update tomorrow which may even come with some disclosures.
Longerguy - get the director buy argument but I'd say it's moderate at best (but I'd love it if I am completely wrong). I think the no director buys probably relates divisional offers they do not wish to disclose and a need to avoid of potential risk of insider claims further down the road. I reckon they may have had approaches around parts of the business and are trying to work with those companies on a 'whole 'offering. In theory the buyer would have the ability to hold the SP down on the low trading volume days we typically see - that's a big maybe.
I entertain the thought but don't really believe it myself.

Decent article but if you were a NEX cynic you would simply re-buff by saying the company is putting 120 coaches into the UK market where ROCE is currently lowest within group. Whilst anyone who has read the devil in the detail understands why, fund managers looking across tons of companies might just look at that headline and move on. This share needs more buyer appeal and whilst the article helps, a robust update in May will do a hell of a lot better. 'Beating expectations' is the term needed.

Think it will be more like THGs turn this week (at least hope it might happen). Looked at KCT but felt like it might stay down for a while before climbing again subject to business execution. Looks like news flow changes well into H2 for them.
NEX won't go like 888 .... different dynamics to reasoning. They were facing unknown compliance issues, CEO gone and genuine questions over some aspects of licensing ... all overbaked by press.
NEX needs an offer for the business to explode the SP ... needs a big player as the opportunity is to buy it then build it out further by adding more acquisitions. I just think we'd have seen it by now if there was any legitimate interest.

I’m not so sure the strikes were a major influence. I think anything with debt pile has been hit. Just rules put into the decision process of big funds.
I get the BT argument but again that’s probably significantly undervalued (and draghi had created the surge to 190 previously). I’m sure that will get back to 300 plus mark eventually.
We really should start to see a drop in the cpi figure next week which will become far more dramatic in months to come. If that happens and interest rate cools, more money generally will come into equities again and NEX type shares will come back on people’s lists. Just need some nice surprises on the inflation front.

At some point this share should do the same. Maybe between May update and July half yearly.
I sold 888 at 72p…it has climbed so fast within the week and may face some additional headwind in marketing restrictions/challenges around gambling.
Opted not to add more NEX for time being and bought a little more THG.

Agree pokerchips. I bought quite a few through last week. I think they will have to put the write down through on WH and another fine but bad news almost done. I think it could rebound quite quickly but won’t get over £1 anytime soon.

Great post Sandy. So basically VAST future is hanging on the value of these diamonds. I'd also infer that the production report is not going to be too rosy if you're putting out this RNS. Real shame as I'm sure a good management team could have delivered more ... instead, my concern is this is turning far more into black/red gamble territory rather than a business with truly investable potential.
Frankly the RNS screams that something else is stalling the diamonds and they are asking the government for assistance.

You're right. I have this mentality of setting a target and the last one I really got wrong was Investec where I was in at 150 and sold at a little over 300...the thing just went like a steam train and even now I simply don't follow that stock.
I am sure NEX can do the same. They are similar to Investec in that the management team is very strong ... and those teams deliver if not confronted by any adverse market conditions. So point well made.
One of the reasons behind the 180 for me was a target at a healthy discount to what you would buy the business for. At the time I considered that the 250 mark ... and actually I think that is what an equity house would throw their hat in the ring at. Whilst the debt is no issue in terms of the day to day running of the business and cash generation, it has obviously battered shareholder value.
Now if management deliver on their growth plan and maintain margin discipline, that 250 increases rapidly and within this year. Of all the things they need to do, margin discipline is the most challenging to achieve when coupled with the revenue growth target.
A concern of mine against this becoming a 3-400, is that the competitive environment still has too many players from large to small and consolidation play of smaller regional routes is the smart action (to defend margin and scale) but you can't do that anchored down in debt.

Yes, weird. Like someone was sat on a load of orders. Stopped as quickly as it started.

I am at the 120 level average wise. Initially I was thinking 180 sell point but actually if management bonus includes a 185 floor, it makes no sense. I am thinking more like 220 and I am guess the Oct/Nov update might be the trigger to push it there if all is on track. The good thing is, the management team only need to deliver on plan to get it there ... any improvement might be that catalyst to the £3 some want.

Here's a different way of looking at this. I have spent 48K on shares which if they go to a 20p divi in 2-3 years, gives me 8K p.a on my investment. Let's say I get 3-4K in 2024. It really is not a bad bang for your buck. Whatever your view on divi's, funds will be looking at this and right now they will have been averaging down themselves in the past few months. The half yearly results, divi and debt outlook will be huge in the half yearly's.
I have only been in this one for a few months so do not share LTH frustration. It certainly amazes me how this is held back but frankly I hope it get drummed between now and the 6th April as I will buy more into an ISA. Just don't see a share with the potential return and 'safety' for wont of a better word.
This just is not a quick buck share ... for that go to THG or the like ... plenty of excitement but you make half of sweet FA as no-one times the ups and downs to perfection.

It was the full Morningstar stock report.

The report I can get at shows Blackrock at 4.59 prior to this and JPM at 4.76.

I don't think the Saudi contract is all that. Seems that it was split between a domestic company, Alsa and cannot remember the third. NEX would have one of the two contracts for the north by the sounds of it. Decent but just part of organic growth as opposed to a game changer. They just need to keep winning new business without too much capital intensity.
When it comes to a buyer, I think they need to have an offer before the Takeover code is in play and an RNS has to be issued. If any conversations with management were being had, I guess that might stop the ability of directors purchasing but no need for an RNS unless some info is leaked and they have to answer 'press speculation'?
I find it strange how all other broker recs have been buried aside from Liberum's downgrade helping the shorts. That said, some of these AI selection tools and the like treat debt in a pretty arbitary manner in light of the rate hikes. More of an 'any debt is bad debt' type mentality.
Would love this to boom during April /May but I think the reality is it will be a long slow climb over many months.

I think it's just impatience from some investors - particularly when fast wins can be had on other FTSE350 stock. Still, their money, their problem!
Keeping the SP down just gets harder and harder as the algo's have less inventory to play with. They might struggle on the 6th April if its still 120!
I'm also still trying to find more about that JP Morgan RNS and quick reversal (or change to non-disclosure requirement).