Member Info for joseywales

What happens next week with the Alpha debt?

Xavik makes a fair point as do you canary. I reckon the 120 mark will come back prior to and positive bid news and it will be the city driving it based on whispers they hear. Everyone has their own opinion but mine is that if an offer comes in, it will be good enough to elevate the SP to 170.

I think Apollo and THG management have been thrashing out forward looking statements by division to get to a mutually acceptable price to take to shareholders.

Agreed Paddyboy ... they are shorting to produce lower averages on their long. Otherwise the short just does not make sense mathematically as the resistance will just be way too much to take it sub 110 type level.

Only a couple of months till July results ... I think these will be positive overall with some margin compression to be recovered in H2. That said, the margin compression is covered cash wise by the increased revenue so interim divi you'd expect to be safe and maybe we can hope for share buyback too. It seems this is the only solution to get the SP out the doldrums.

My guess is Manc is that based on the timing they are buying under the 1% and may buy more today/tomorrow with RNS issued post play Friday. That would then be a rival bidder getting a seat at the table. That said I'm not so sure credible rival bidders will emerge for below reasoning ....

An Apollo lead MBO with some roll in to satisfy the gestations of institutional LTHs would seem the most sensible structure. It get sit private relatively quickly and Apollo could structure further options to acquire institutional investments further down the road.

I think we find out next week what things look like and it will be something which satisfies the majority. Just enjoying the dips into the sub 80s ... I thought they'd try and push for 76 but I guess the free float is falling and not too many stop losses set up after last week.

Cheers LG… I jumped the gun and misunderstood. Changing the holding company name under which the brands operate makes sense. I just did not take the time to read it today.

Like I said the other day, down at 117 again is ridiculous. I'm guessing with the shorts increasing there will be continued pressure on this until we get closer to the half yearly. Hopefully they announce a share buyback alongside the interim divi. Really depend on how margins have held up.

It would make a real difference and I'm a bit frustrated they will spend money changing livery to new fricking name. Frankly I consider it a poor management decision fixing something that is not broke when you need to be delivering on a post covid turnaround and decreasing financial leverage.

Actually...more than a bit frustrated ... want to be sat in front of board to find out why the hell it's any kind of rational decision.

I've been in THG for a while Manc and avoided this as it was reading marginally better than VASTs board. Commercially astute, strategically sound and statistically accurate posts can be useful alongside you own research. Why I stick to NEX most the time.

Can be quite amusing reading the VAST and this board ... reminds you that as a race we are only a few brain cells away from banging sticks in the ground circling a strange black obolisk

No surprise. The big indicators for me were how fast MW got out of their short and Vanguard buying back what they sold for a lot higher SP. Those are seriously connected heavyweights.

Hard to predict the math, but today would be the good day for them to hold this under 80 at close to flush out day traders / weak holders. Then a lot of shares to be bought by end of play Friday. Just guessing but it's fun to see the shorts in action like this.

Best let the pros do the shorting. Can seriously lose your shirt. What's actually happening is they are shorting the hell out of it and buying long too so they have a healthy average on the long. Super smart quants and wiping weak PIs off the table.

Just have fun with it Manc that's what I say.

There's a 20p downside if that on no deal and realistically £1 upside on first swing at an offer. It really is not the first rodeo for these guys and the fact there's been no refuting the process, there's actually been investment in it. Too much liquidity in US PE at the moment with high interest rate environment ... they need to put $US to work and domestic deals are harder to come by due to multiples of valuations over there at the moment. £2 plus is not at all unrealistic for them.

People should take a look at the aerospace parts deal they just did.

No ... only a chuckle at the irony when they point out how the covid lows impacted the business so detrimentally. That'll be when the share price was double (and then some) of what it is today then.

Directors are not buying as either they are not convinced of recovery yet ,or they are holding their cash to roll into an MBO type deal which would role some of the main ii's into the process with it to get the votes needed on a below desirable SP. A bit doom and gloom but I struggle to see why else this has been maintained at such a tight range for so long bringing the 50 day down. Just makes a 180p type deal looks like a decent % ... I can't quite remember but I'm sure the AA went a similar kind of way.

This is almost standard practice I feel. Concerted effort to pull the SP down, then as it goes up, PI's mentality is one of relief so they sell for far less than they would have sold this morning. All done with absolutely no material news flow, just shorts doing what they do best ... probably got share this morning to hand back Friday.

As I've said before, just look at the sales volumes for starters.

Well yes JG ...concur that this country has made serious wrong turns in the last decade and it's something to truly be ashamed of. Sunak is simply out there trying to polish a turd right now.

As for Bailey ... the fact he was also at the FCA prior to the BOE pretty much says it all.

Trying to work out why GLG increased short and what they may be seeing that we do not....tried to search this morning but I've found nothing on the below questions so maybe the answer is simply no to each of them.

- Does anyone know if the contracts NEX have in US federal/govt funded?

- Should NEX miss margin targets in H1 (which is realistic as they play catch up due to wage increases), is there anything in debt covenants that would create an issue for NEX debt arrangements?

- There has been a lot of striking in Germany, has much of the NEX business been impacted by this?

I know this share can be easily manipulated by decent sized funds, but why is this not getting on the radar of some funds simply looking at the short/mid term opportunity on this. 117 is just a level I thought was behind us.

They should get into golf tours / trips and co-ordinate with all the big golf travel sites/complexes.

So long as the brakes are as good as what's holding this share price, everyone in Maida is safe and sound!

Certainly interesting to find the undervalued. For me I increased holding of CURY. Thing is, as much as you research and work out numbers etc, you never really know when sentiment will change!

From memory when I looked at 888 it's RSI was about 33/34 I think. ASOS would have a bit to go to match that. Also not quite the same headwinds 888 was facing in terms of the compliance issues, fine and leadership change.
I once looked at setting up clothing e-comm business ... it's brutal to make the margins work when factoring returns, inventory write-offs/downs, vendor mngmt etc. So I don't invest in ASOS as I just don't understand how they make the business work successfully.

I did pretty good KG. TBH there's just a real lack of understanding on many levels on that THG board. There are some good posters but a lot that need to get out there and have solid exposure to the commercial world and how business run / operate/ leverage etc. Even fewer understand how PE operates.
It's a different investment to NEX for sure. Between now and June there will either be a £2 mark first swing or back to 50/60p. The upside is big and within the month if it happens.
My view on NEX on the other hand is simply safe money ... from this current SP window, it will only climb at some point.