Member Info for joseywales

You're KCT call was good Paddy.
I still don't think a bid is imminent for NEX. As nice as it would be, I think the institutional investors will have a 3-5 year view and the reality is, it likely becomes a £4/5 share with the additional opportunity to tag on acquisitions once current debt pile is reduced.
When it comes to Wood group and comparisons, WG. also sold the consulting business to clear down the debt prior to the offer coming into them. That sale which hugely benefited the balance sheet did very little to benefit the shareholders until the offer came in. I really don't think selling part of NEX is in shareholders interests ... the debt really is manageable and should demand frontstage in the conversation.

I think there will be pressure on them to stall and hold the rate where it is in May. In theory inflation should begin a sharp fall as the report for April will marry up with pretty much the start of the Ukraine war impact last year.
I think it's the EU rate which is more worrying for NEX. They seem to have a more aggressive stance at the moment.
US seems like another 0.25 and then stall maybe.
I fully expect the wage impact will mean same £ profit figure on much higher revenues in H1 which then balances out in full year as price increases make the positive impact to margin. I expect that is why there was no mention of profit or FCF in update.

Yep so 130s/140s in about 4 weeks time for div re-investment time. Then 160-180 by H1 results in July. Maybe Liberum could just counter my shot in the dark with 80p and £1.10!

I've been out of DARK since the QCM debacle. Having seen MW reducing as opposed to holding out till the share buyback ends, I have bought back in. I think growth will be slow but it's market cap is way below other companies' multiples in the same space. I think over a year the SP will climb significantly and it must be an acquisition target (forgetting TB). Made quite a bit on DARK prior to the QCM hit, hopefully will do again!

The good news is that if it carries on like this, it's probably only one or two weeks away (in my view) from being in a very oversold position. Currently it's RSI is 37 which was about the level I got in at 888 at. You really cannot compare 888 and NEX because of different challenges and the fact 888 has probably had a very sharp flip to overbought now.
I don't look at that RSI much but when company fundamentals are good and simply mood/trading patterns are impacting a stock, it's worth considering.

Amazing isn't it. I bet we give back 4p tomorrow!
I guess we have a few weeks before going into the closed period prior to half yearly results and we have an AGM. If there are no director buys and the share price remains this depressed, surely the leadership team needs to be pressed regarding the SP performance. They seem to run the business very effectively, but if they don't get a handle on this they could get the rug swept from under them. Wouldn't take much for an activist type investor to get a seat at the table and at this level they could come in to push a carve up for the sum of parts and still get healthy return.
I know this won't happen and I'm being a bit devil's advocate but the leadership team need to step it up presentation wise when you have a market cap at this level. For heaven's sake, I'm buying a bit of CURY at the moment and that has far more challenges to overcome than NEX ... with the same sort of market cap and less profitability.

Liberum are like the court jester in the realm of brokers. They went from 55p to 220p on THG. I should actually just get their recs on a feed so I am guaranteed a chuckle every day.

I think what you are covering was already well warned of and covered during 2022 so not really surprising. It's the outlook which needs to be knocked and bashed about if you are a PI shorting this. That becomes a little more challenging both from the business progress and changes in economic environment as inflation tames during this year and rate increases cease.
Good luck to you if you are but when MW and team are reducing and fund managers are aligning longs and shorts so they are prepared either way for a form 2.7 ... it's a ballsy short.

The loss was no surprise and was well covered previously in terms of updates around the customer retention strategy and whey costs etc. The writedown was probably smart too, particularly if they want to line this up for MBO. At the end of the day, it's not like Apollo or the likes could help facilitate that and remain involved.
If Moulding wants to take this private himself then there's now £1bn plus of tax losses to start with. That's a big number to be looking at if they deliver on some of these plans they mentioned and get this thing delivering profit. The small percentage growth plan is an enabler to demonstrate the sort of profit margin potential which could be achieved and it sounds like they have already done some 'right sizing' activity.
Can understand why PE interested as actually it's a smart technology business and actually quite hard to replicate.
150p seems a low number. I know everyone's immediate response is 'well is makes no money' ... but actually the future outlook, capability and opportunity of the platforms form a very substantial goodwill element.

I really would not expect a surge. Shame it’s on a day when inflation figure missed estimates. Slow rise over weeks into July half yearly would work nicely.

Good detailed update on revenue growth. Great number. Would have been nice to get profitability and FCF rates mentioned.
Clear move by NEX management to try and stimulate SP. Not quite Mat Moulding style but nonetheless should trigger some movement you’d expect.

Share buy back would do it. I seem to remember on a couple of occasions ITV has done this ... I always thought it was down to the institutional players.

You want to see dumb ****e stupid, head over to THG's board today - there's one or two gems on there. If it were a picture it would be the Banksy with the chimpanzee saying 'laugh now but one day we'll be in charge'!!
Mind you, even they would not compare NEX to CINE.
It's certainly a strange one whatever is going on with NEX ... no real volume but a very appealing price. Very few safer places for your cash at the moment.

'non cash impairment' should be the takeaway. Eventually goodwill has to disappear from the balance sheet ... it's one of the few lines that can be massaged either way frankly and means little to the actual business.

Point well made. Those genuinely shocked at results probably need to do more research. If anything I would expect more suitors to join the fray in coming weeks.
I hope they get the dip they want today as I too would buy more.
Slight net debt improvement is the positive city analysts would get.

I opted for CURY. I think NEX is being played well. On the odd morning it starts to pull away, it gets truly reigned into range. Reminds me of the AA. While I still don’t believe a reasonable offer imminent, some of the hallmarks are certainly familiar.
I think when it happens, this one could end up as a stand off between management and institutional investors. The latter holding for 350-400 and former happy at 250-300.

Frankly it's not too late to buy THG. I missed out on NETW initial rise from 250-300 but took s spin at 300 last week based on my belief NETW value needs to be 400-450 to make it work for investors. THG already balked at 140 so I think Apollo will need to be 175-200 plus if they proceed.
US Equity will be looking but I think there are softer targets than NEX out there. That said, if interest is there, then you need to think an offer needs to be tabled prior to any significant changes to inflation/rate environment and the money flow away from bonds and into equities.

Well there you go ... news just out on THG. Maybe the same could happen to NEX the day before May's update!

THG has been a great trading share. I bought last week at 65 as I felt it simply would not go sub 60 again. I think there is little downside to holding into the update tomorrow which may even come with some disclosures.
Longerguy - get the director buy argument but I'd say it's moderate at best (but I'd love it if I am completely wrong). I think the no director buys probably relates divisional offers they do not wish to disclose and a need to avoid of potential risk of insider claims further down the road. I reckon they may have had approaches around parts of the business and are trying to work with those companies on a 'whole 'offering. In theory the buyer would have the ability to hold the SP down on the low trading volume days we typically see - that's a big maybe.
I entertain the thought but don't really believe it myself.

Decent article but if you were a NEX cynic you would simply re-buff by saying the company is putting 120 coaches into the UK market where ROCE is currently lowest within group. Whilst anyone who has read the devil in the detail understands why, fund managers looking across tons of companies might just look at that headline and move on. This share needs more buyer appeal and whilst the article helps, a robust update in May will do a hell of a lot better. 'Beating expectations' is the term needed.