Member Info for joseywales

Good point about holding cash. The reality is I suspect that H1 will show the short term detrimental impact of wage inflation which will have impacted cash. It's why I think buyback can only be attached to full year results.

I only have a small holding of these but the top line news of £1.5bn of gain on the markets and £1bn pulled out by retail investors is fine. Actually the pull out from retail could have been far worse at the peak time of this 'cost of living crisis'. The fact there's 1.5bn market gain just indicates what probably all of us know here .... timing is good to buy/add into managed funds portfolios.
IR and CPI outlook will turn significantly so I expect this SP to grow steadily during 2023.
Obviously there is an opportunity to acquire and if that's really going to happen you would expect something to emerge prior to half yearly. However, I don't think this will be sold at enough discount to make it worthwhile.

I think without buyback IMB would be significantly lower. NEX is a very different proposition with a much lower long term risk structure.
Holding in treasury is no good (just look as Vodafone) ... they need to be cancelled. So long as the institutional holders of NEX remain, then just a 20-30m buyback would have a huge impact on the SP and get rid of any unhedged shorting.

Agree on share buyback consensus from SP effect. Long term ii’s would likely just prefer the divi income to start flowing. Also in theory more funds can invest in divi generating tickers….that clearly has not happened!
Hopefully they will add buyback.to divi next year.

I think there is a chance. This has been a nice trading share and I believe this will be a 180/200 type value if management execute.
I think this can deliver growth in profit…not so sure where it goes in terms of top line growth when it seems the cost to gain that is high.
That said, the holding rns the other day and ennismore drop might indicate something is rumoured in the financial markets.

The cost of holding has been a bit brutal really (and I've only been in since around Feb)!. Those who started on the NEX train last week, timed it to perfection I reckon. Unfortunately they never go back up as fast as they go down though.
Of course a bid changes that but then just about every board hopes for that when the general mood is one of frustration with the SP.

Really is just a matter of time. Over 10m of equity swaps for exercise in May so clearly analysts and the like see the impending weeks as a period of action on this SP.
Whilst it's surprising how this has been kept low, I think this will be the last week for top up in my opinion. Personally I need THG to play out so could do with the sub 120 for maybe a few weeks longer.

Agreed - a lot of detail to go through but outlook for the metrics are strong and the senior leadership team in very strong in my opinion.
When you look at depressed share prices, this as a business faces far less adverse challenges than others that I am sure some of us on this board have in their portfolio. It's just one that might take a little longer to come to fruition and that's the cost of limited downside in the mid-term.

Yep, just me and dodgy phone.

Is it me or did all the posts after 8.30 just disappear?

Just a thought, if (and I don't know the fact) the CFO is obligated to purchase shares, maybe the smart question to ask is why has he not fulfilled his contractual obligation. This is a perfectly legitimate question which demand reply whereas speculative requests can just be swept aside.

THG is seen as a basketcase. If it were on another exchange it would be loved as opposed to misunderstood. Millennial businesses listing in a country still full of bowler hats and ties just don't mix.
The bowler hats and ties actually love NEX and don't like PI oiks walking into their exclusive club. So you either dump on their carpet or let them chase you out.
If you don't need the cash, don't sweat it JG.

There's only about 3 holders over 5%. Blackrock, Vanguard, JP, all under 5 from memory. Conveniently one or two literally just under the 5%. I have a feeling over 5% is only on increments of 1% and possible monthly filing if there is any change ... I'm really not sure.
Obviously I could be way wrong but I really think the buying will start. Will start in the auctions and then to regular trading.

That's a lot of cash to tie up JG. I have under half what you have and admit I sold 15K yesterday morning to buy THG at 83. Purely a fast trade and bought back my NEX shares half hour ago - confess I'll be doing it again if THG goes sub 85 today again. Consider my NEX a bank for now but I have a few long termers and little spare change to trade on opportunities. NEX seems the least likely to suddenly surge upwards and leave me holding head in hands.

Too right. If you look from an investment perspective, if they have ramped up revenue by nigh on 20% (at constant) and get margin aligned to target it H2, this has got to be close to a 10p divi in 2024 ... not bad for 117p purchase! Would be space for a share buyback too.

LG, was not meaning to say it will drop further...I think it just get sold into at this level for a little while longer.
I've never really understood why people say institutions are in at some high price. It's these very same shares which have been sold all the way down into these lows and will be bought all back up giving them an averaged down asset value.

I think you just have to sit tight and let anything that might be going on, play out. I really think another week or so at these levels and this becomes heavily oversold and you would only be talking a few weeks till a decent 15-20% bounce.
I think July will yield a lower % margin on the increased revenue because of wage inflation catch up which comes in H2. It’s just going to be a long haul back up to the 200 plus mark in my opinion.
Of course an offer smashes that and we can but hope.

Firm offer is the term. Looksie's, chats and meets under NDAs are fine until press/public get wind of those. This then becomes an area of interpretation but at the point where a share has 'out of range' significant spikes, the rumours need confirmation via RNS.
That confirmation should be followed by a 2.7 form to state a bid will be made, then the rounds of bids.

That THG is either an MBO at 150-170 range or nothing in my opinion. The management team need to be on board for transition and PE going in there to take a looksie will likely culminate in a Thoma Bravo/Darktrace type end where no 'realistic offer price' could be made. I'd be very pleased with 150 personally but many an LTH will be taking a bath. Shame as it should be 200+ but MM playing the game well for MBO. Probably list in the USA in a couple of years!

When I was involved in one potential acquisition, we went for a couple of rounds of dog and pony show...was given an anticipated range of price and then asked to formally submit interest or walk away. All of that was under NDA and an FCA document about any holding we as individuals held in the company. It was a small group of suitors involved and this dog and pony stage was all done without RNS.
So yes, plenty of conversations could be going on if management/major holders entertain the idea. It's a huge diversion from day to day business though.