Member Info for joseywales

It was the operating margins which made the divi permissible. I think there is a % written into the covenants.

Most debt is fixed but you have the £400m bridge agreed for later in the year which I am guessing might be at market.

No point selling USA business or any other to pay down debt. WG. went through that process and I saw this morning that they are trading back at the same level before they sold their consulting unit and paid down debt.

Well fair play to the CEO stepping up and buying some shares. Small but meaningful. Just sends a signal that the wheels are not coming off.

You mention 888 JG - I sold at a £1. SYNT hit an RSI of 16 which was below 888's when I first mentioned them. I think you mentioned KCT to me which I hold at around 60p still ... believe in that one too.

Yep you can't have it all. I'm throwing up right now as I bought quite a bit of OCDO and held back selling too many NEX at that 118 level a couple of weeks back to load more on OCDO. Another example of why holding this share has cost me.

However ... it's really interesting how OCDO was back in the 350 window and now an 800 offer is muted. That would have been laughed at only a few months back when SP was touching the 500's. Starting to think an offer coming in at the 180-220 range over the summer is not beyond the realms of possibility. It's primed for a low-ball offer.

Well I'd just get used to us lagging behind Eurozone when it comes to any sort of positive news. Should probably re-align expectations in post Brexit Britain and use Argentina or the like as comparatives moving forwards.

So I think we're doing well and Mogg, Johnson etc really aren't gut wrenchingly despicable liars who should be locked up in the same cell block as Putin!

Oh .. thank heaven for small mercies there was not one in early June this time around then! In fact we must be about to go into the closed period now so by that virtue, no nasty surprises on the 27th July!

Yanis, it's purely a cash concern for me. I think the rental model is great and I see it permeating a lot of other product lines outside of tech in the secondary goods space. There's not only a cash element to commence the rental but even on the transactional business there is a cash lag from payment to consumer to the sale out. This may well be stretched a little further now when it comes to the kiosks.

Really I think they have most their ducks in a row and could be on the precipice of something great .... costs below the EBITDA line are simply too high. No substantive PBT is concerning.

To give some perspective Ecorenew Holdings (Mazuma / ICT) YE Mar 22 managed £3m PBT on a £30m turnover ... need to be seen what comes out for Mar23 but it really does beg the question of MMAG management how a significantly less scaled business is crushing them PBT wise with no immediate outlook for significant PBT from MMAG.

I'm not a shareholder right now so not my place to ask it!

On a lighter note .... I hark back to Radio Rentals days - let's get that brand back, fill it with secondary tech and put smiles on the faces of those of us who gazed at those big TV's in the store windows challenging our parents as to why we have to get up and push a button on the TV to change channel!!

Last year there was a trading update in June. Any ideas why we done seem to be getting one this year?

QD ... back your comments up and short it like hell then. I'm sure you can get some clean linens on the cheap from ASOS to contain the mess.

Well JG, you're referring to a media that gives 5 times the airtime to a few rich guys sat in a sub at the bottom of the ocean (3 of which paid $250K to tour the wreck of a human disaster) versus the hundreds impacted by the boat disaster off the coast of Greece. Can't do anything but hold them in contempt. Not shocked by the Murdoch bandwagon since we know where that moral compass sits ... but I pay the BBC a license fee for that behaviour!

What they have is sold put options. So they are not exactly in with two feet here. I'm just a bit dubious since they seem to reaching into a lot of things right now. I know it's certainly helped AO's SP as they took physical shares. I don't think what they have done has in any way reduced the available share pool or been a significant cash investment for Frasers since in theory it's just the premium on the option.

I'm concerned that this is more about disruption as opposed to a 'team currys' play.

AO were quick to RNS acknowledgement and support of Ashley's shareholding ... nothing from CURY.

I think only the Malaysians could do it right now since I very much doubt they'd allow any other company to come along right now and take it on the cheap. Doubt they will though.

The current demand cycle will change and SYNT can ride that out. I think there is an element of positivity in what has come from other industry peers in terms of destocking, reduced orders etc. They are just the first in the supply chain to feel the pinch and next the news will be from the manufacturers/resellers who will be reporting reduced sale volumes and the like. Just the ebs and flows of a supply chain as opposed to collapsing product lines.

Paying 6K interest per 100K of mortgage will soon focus minds. It bugs me how busy restaurants and pubs are with a lot of people who clearly don't realise what's coming. I think Covid created a very significant live for the moment attitude and debt is soon to become a real issue. I guess the burden will be on the banks.

there's a lag but in my opinion the dynamic is different than simple repetition of historic trends around inflation.

i'm no economist but when you see what's happening in the chemical industry of late and then the rough diamond report from anto***asta ... there's disruption in the supply chain likely caused by rates policies happening. bailey follows the herd and there's an obsession at consumer level spending ... the rates take longer to impact since all the fixed rate mortgage changes and rent increases etc take time to filter through. anyway it's a long winded view of mine but not for here.

when it comes to nex they hedge the fuel so on the most part, no benefit or detriment on the price movement of it. smart really.

Well with that non-exec purchase I feel a little happier as we head to July. Just grabbed some at the 106 mark. The price range was showing as 107.8-110 for some reason so I guess things have not synced up with the name change just yet.

I don't think there's any expectation around positive PBT any time soon. I've become more concerned about potential cash burn in the business and unsure where they can cut costs to manage. More questions than answers and maybe there will be more information in the next report. I think I picked badly here and have taken the exit believing this SP will continue to slide.

Well I've done a swap on some of my NEX for SYNT. I got a bit annoyed to see an RNS about a change of name when the share price is on the floor ... insult to injury and all that. I sold just under 112 thinking I'll swallow the loss if it climbs from there ... only to see 108 end of day. What an absolute joke! If SYNT recovers a little before NEX rises I'll be back in ... mug that i am. There are plenty of others out there with 'double' potential and slowly I'm thinking NEX will not be one of them.

Agreed Sherlock ... Lanxness took a pummelling today as if the market was surprised by it. Unfortunately SYNT got caught up in it today despite already having declared the challenges to 2023 early on.

Me and Candid are sat on other sides of the fence but it's always good to have 'considered' counter views in the forum ... its what most of us are here for at the end of the day. He/She wants a 60p price, whereas I think this is close to bottom. The RSI is likely lower than the 23 it was sat at by now, with no RNS from key holders reducing.

You have to wonder what the game is and what Currys management think of this. Maybe they knew this was coming due to conversations already had with Ashley/his team and it's why the Greek option is on the table to try and bolster the SP and avoid hostile takeover or the like? Thing is there is more complexity in CURY than the usual Frasers type businesses. The aftermarket services element is considerable. (Tech support, repair, trade-in, WEE service).

Also, because he now has the voting rights, can he effectively block any other potential suitor from taking the company private?

Candid ... you clearly sit on the risk averse side of thing which is fine. The amount of (lets say heated) discussions I have had with FD's about company direction, strategy and investment are countless (and valued), as the accountants are often the harbinger of conservatism when it comes to capex investments, acquisitions and growth strategies which basically require cash. (Probably not completely fair as the jump to FD from accountant is that FDs tend to have a more strategic commercial view).

Sounds like management at SYNT have listened to their finance team by pulling the divi whilst the company navigates the downturn.

This is without risk of course. However, I seek companies where I believe they are simply undervalued against their MCAP and start investing in tranches as they slide towards the bottom. I'm in no way capable of picking at the bottom so always buy in this way and sometime simply have fewer share if I'm already close to bottom.

I get your argument and might have heard the cliche about revenue for vanity, profit for sanity once or twice before! I don't believe it applies here as nothing really rings alarm bells tying in the available data to the MCAP. Maybe this drops to 70p or lower ... for me price becomes white noise unless seriously adverse stuff happens within the business.

I know NEX has been longer and painful than most others, but there are also plenty of other companies getting the same treatment right now. If the market is saying the UK will suffer inflationary pain for longer and hence higher interest rates, the very simple view of funds is sell UK buy on the DAX, CAC or just about any other country's exchange. Bailey is too weak to manage the UK situation ... didn't exactly shine at the FCA either did he? He needs to ruffle feathers and won't.

What I do think is being overlooked here is that NEX debt structure is in the currency of the business where the debt is held ... assume therefore that a significant amount of debt is structured around the US and EU rate, not UK.