Member Info for joseywales

Does anyone have any idea on the timeline for any fine relating to the cybersec issue? It's a big anchor weighing them down at the moment and clarity around it would certainly alleviate some of the fall. I took my medicine and sold during the results drop in the end but aside from this wretched fine business, I'd get back in at this level. The business writedowns are irrelevant to the longer term prospects for the company in my opinion.

Is there any cap at all on this fine they will get? Anyone have any info?

It was amusing the first time Tesla and Uber were mentioned. Now tiresome.

If you really want to look at a suitor, generally trade will unlikely pay the multiple and buy future outlook. This is PE territory with a view to picking it up on the cheap (sub £2), hold for two or three years to let opportunities and recovery mature, then list on US exchange.

Alternatively, Asia is also a huge space for this market and as that continues to mature and becomes increasingly competitive, maybe they look to other territories with acquisition being the fast entrance. This is a double edged sword since the general solutions and tech they employ make the west look a little deficient in progress ... depending on speed of deployment they can easily become a threat and one or two dwarf anything in US/Europe.

The trackers would already be well managed by the systematic or ML trading systems in place. Of course it could be them creating this dip but would imagine they were managing their end before 250 relegation became a 'thing'.

Shorting at 64p ... would say there's two weeks at best to close that and make nought.

The logic for the drop is likely following construction news globally and how that impacts this business. However, the supply chain dynamics mean SYNT has already endured this impact as highlighted by trading update comments for that business sector and the recovery moving into 2024 as opposed to 23.

I've bought a few more of these today as what little rise there was got sold into. Maybe it heads lower as looking at last few days there seems a seller is in the background and just depends how many they decide to off-load.

Won't produce a barrage of stretched out cliche metaphors.. However, if the first half is running at c.70m EBITDA on c.1.1bn revenue during a time when their industry sector is enduring a brutal demand cycle, I really don't think things are too poorly run. A business struggling and getting by during such a demand cycle is different to a flawed, broken company. Taking the divi off the table (rather conservatively) and the restructuring/cost mitigation is good management practice.

Would concede the historic acquisition will incur non-cash writedowns on goodwill. Market hates that.

I invest for the future so to me this continues to hold a good prospect of multiplying its SP with fewer risks than others which face challenges beyond simply channel demand.

Well using the term 'final clear out' is dangerous. You just don't know the state of the funds holding big numbers in MCG. I think the same might be happening at SYNT as well. Staggeringly low price points simply driven by market 'cash' dynamics as opposed to any significantly overriding concerns around business trajectory.

Admire you're steadfast attitude to the cause Jamrock. In my head I know I should simply sell before the results are issued just because of the cash drain they have already mentioned will just receive further adverse reaction. However, selling at a price which pretty much reflects cash in hand makes little sense either!

Too much talk of Covid here. If continued Covid testing is the difference between success and failure for this company then it's a poor investment.

Needs positive results/news, not director buys.

I get the argument around the net loss after depreciation etc. However, these write-down items are largely non-cash. What you are actually looking at is a business which in theory should generate 100m+ of cash with a much stronger operating profit forecast going into 2024.

My biggest concern about this company is that a 160 type price tag would be seen as a good deal. If you end up with more reductions from large holders like M&G, there are fewer long-sighted shareholders to block a low-ball deal. Whilst I think the management team are good at running the business they are not good at understanding the market and how the company could be taken from under them. This business has a slightly more predictable outlook than others which is a value add right now.

Just like I said in earlier posts, it is simply retail cash being pulled out of funds. I think this bounces in Q4 since now with valuations so low across the FTSE250/350 it makes leveraged trading an option again even with cost of cash so high.

M&G are no Odier ... suddenly managed fund options generating say 9-11% annual (aggregated over years) is not quite as attractive as putting a hole in mortgage debt or the like.

Probably like many others, I have reduced my managed funds holdings to spread across several companies like this which will yield me far higher on the bounce than any tracker/sector fund etc.

JG, I know this one seems to be more painful than others in terms of the agonising way it has steadily declined. However, as with others I am in .... if you were a fund and want to invest in companies which offer a good 3-5yr outlook (or beyond), this would be one. So when they have cash to invest and their current retail outflows abate, expect this to be on the list. FTSE250/350 trackers and the like have just been clobbered with cash outflows ... it will turn.

All the rights issue, death by debt bs that's touted on here now, is just because the farm gates were left open and the 'not so desirables' can run amock. Shame as it used to be a decent board with constructive, sensible, statistically accurate arguments either way.

Hope to see the real investors on the other side of this.

It would be nice if this changed overnight but the reality is it will simply take time. I personally think an 'event' is coming within the year but then there are other stocks this is happening to as well. Will change in 12 months so long as delivery on profitability and debt reduction appear.

I have as much as I'm prepared to take with an attitude that if it drops to 60p it's irrelevant. I think there's a game to acquire this sub 180 and if those are buys coming through maybe an RNS with a familiar name on it pops up ... hopeful fantasy I fear ... along with desire to move to next opportunity whilst many are out there.

They’ve burned through 2m against a revenue of 2.5m. I guess the 5m cash is about 9 or 10p per share with a burn rate heading towards 6p.

Company simply succeeds or fails within next 18 months.

I will keep holding but expect a long wait for my 20p average to get in the green (if at all).

I'll take an RR sp turnaround or an MCRO/NETW type sale process. Really don't mind which! In the next 12 months it really is a case of either or.

Someone really is selling into any demand and then some. Maybe a load of retail shorters are figuring it drops by a lot more than the divi amount tomorrow?

I've bought in here again having sold out a while back. I think JL has done his work selling off the non-core. Doubt Friday will be great but at mid 26's there's not a massive downside. The cyber cost will be the pain but hopefully some positives around the underlying business and profitability ... and future full year divi.

That was me and I think SYNT is kind of stuck a little after last update. I have a lot more faith in that coming good within a year just because the demand slump in the chemical industry overall is starting to turn.

Someone else also suggested KCT on here as well which I got into. Again the market just overdoes things.

Good point made about MCG EBITDA multiple and MCAP. It's just a process of waiting and I think with MCG it will just be a longer process. Once funds start flowing in (rather than out) of the big fund managers, that cash will find it's way to MCG.

No news and CFO gone doesn't bode well. Wonder how much of that £7m is left. Shocking that management has not updated the market. I like the whole concept but you can't announce a CFO departure without updating the market....just makes it look like somethings gone horribly wrong in accounting practice /cash management.

Personally I think the rug may be pulled from under the management. This is now primed for a low bid takeover. I did not think the results were that surprising considering the wage inflation catch up ... thought we might see that, but it does not however jeopardise the long term prospects. Maybe this gets back up to 110/120 type level....I think however it will be a slow burn. At the end of the day, the divi was kept, cash was generated and outlook looks set for maintaining the divi and growth in 2024. I don't think there's a great deal to short here now but maybe they will re-appear post divi.

At £1 a share I think this will be a nice earner over the years if it doesn't get sold.

It’s fine. Cash generation is what you want to see and catch up in wage cost recovery across H2. Market news might lead with profit drop but that will be just white noise.

As the song says, they’re ‘on the road again’….

We’ll best case scenario is that CFO has been cause of some

delay in reporting. Otherwise maybe a disagreement in messaging and the presentation of poorer results/cash management than expected. Strange not to comment on when first half results will be issued.

I find it a bit strange how there was nothing in my news feed about the MCG results on the 27th. I just looked at the alliance feed which gets sent out each Friday detailing companies issuing updates and results for the next 7 days and MCG had no mention.

I was expecting to see results this week if they had anything positive to say, so I am basing my investment as coming to fruition in 2024 after they have had a full 6 months run with Boots.

My concern is that last year was driven by unexpected demand on covid testing. They mentioned shipping 17m tests in 2022 on a £22m revenue. I have no idea what they revenue per test but looks like there will be a very big hole in the H1 comparatives.

So my guess is revenue will be down considerably and the cost of establishing in store stock in Boots etc will show negatively on cash and profit.

Best hope is for more positive outlook on the sell through since May contract started. Maybe it's already baked in here of another 20% or so could be shaved off come news.