Member Info for joseywales

Yep that's about the crux of it. So a lot of PIs will be locked out by cash requirement and I expect that's what being played out at the moment with the SP in the 43s. I very much doubt there will be an upside to holding out and trading the nil rights but who knows. I have never taken part in a rights issue as large as this in terms of raising what was more or less 100% of the company's market cap.

So the maths structure is fine, just need to learn to read properly. So 165m shares post issue it is!

I get that they have massively reduced the upside potential now and your reasoning. I am in positive territory with this ticker now and I have a holding in the 44's currently .... so it's a very different consideration for me.

I should have said, I am under no illusion that that 525m MCAP is achievable short term.

With the market driving the MCAP down to the 200m level my guessing is that maybe half the 276m gets added by the market to the MCAP post RI. So that would be an SP of about £2.20 or so post RI which is a far cry from the prospectus number of £3+

The current SP to break even would assume trading on nil rights of something like £1.35/1.40 ....

Wigwammer, I know will we not change each others mind. However ... by my math, if you were to take your 72p shares and partake in the RI, the breakeven market cap would be 525m give or take a pound or two. My maths could be wildly wrong so here is the breakdown:

200 @ 72p = £144

Post consolidation turns into 10 shares

RI gives 60 shares at 118.20 (1.97 a piece)

Total - 70 shares @ £262.20 total investment = £3.7457 SP to breakeven

140, 200. 818 shares in issue post RI - 3.74 * shares in issue = the 525m

I am a million miles from a math professor so please let me know where I am wrong. If I am right then a 43p price right now should look crazy attractive to most.

Sorry Wigwammer I was in an antagonistic mood this morning. We can agree to disagree.

I think you are calling the prospects of the current SP and future MCAP completely wrong. The past you might be calling right, but then what's gone is gone.

Where this industry sector sits in the supply chain, they are first in, first out when it comes to any recessionary/economic pressure. Hence the 'trough' being referred to.

Sorry I am not really following things at the moment. Is that acquisition in the Canary Islands something that is really being looked at/happening or is it just idle gossip?

They need to be knuckling down making profit and reducing debt with the current business profile and winning 'low cost/asset light' new business like they mentioned before. I am guessing they can do the 80m out of current facilities but it's a bit concerning if this truly is a real figure/activity they are pursuing.

First Group comparisons are pointless I think. I was a holder when they sold off Greyhound and like. They were quite a rollercoaster ride prior to that and you needed to make on the volatility and not hold long.

That'll be your own made up one then? I think you'll find it's more likely to be hold. The dolphins are dancing with the lamas .... imho

I don't think people are talking this down ... probably not as excited as you though sharehead.

I think this gives 35-50% return in a 3-6 month window and then I'm cashed out. I just don't buy the double/treble scenario. Maybe in 18-24 months but too much can happen in that period with this company's history. I just don't believe it's a long term hold.

Really sitting on the fence in terms of buying back in. The writedown was not as much as I thought it would be and the business loss is to be expected. My main concern was forward looking and how bad this economic backdrop could become and how well they can navigate it. I personally enjoy my visits to Majestic Wine and I feel that alone is trying to sway me to purchase again.

I don't think I've ever seen a heads up for rights issue. Right now there are plenty of companies with leveraged balance sheets which in the interest rate environment we are in, will consider all options available to them I'm sure. It's what you do when you run a company.

Then there's all the hindsight commentary about acquisitions gone bad and the like. Well, guess what, sometimes for different reasons acquisitions don't work out. Covid was certainly a gamechanger and no-one talks about the integration/transformation challenges this would have given the company.

I get there are angry LTHs here which might be holding 200 plus averages. Bottom line is you should not be managing your own portfolio if you do, since this share has always had enough volatility to trade your holding and maximise your average potential.

Anyway, as I said before each to their own (and my math could be completely wrong) but I'm looking at this as a relatively simple slam dunk buying at these levels.

Those that sold at 49 on Friday and bought in the 43's yesterday should do pretty well this week I imagine.

That was August ... the fund managers are back with holiday blues right now!

Got to say I'm sharing the pessimism JG. I sold out of a few things Friday and stupidly bought back in today but on reflection I think this could be a dire week. We know 0.25 is likely and dropping inflation may have stalled ... it really is not news yet there went 1.75% off the FTSE250. Really is death by a thousand cuts.

Oh dear. I really hope that's not true. I'm sure it's ok for long term but can you imagine how this additional 80m will be viewed by brokers, funds and shorters in a week where we might see another 0.25% top up on rates. I see this is the 70s again ... spent 80m and no significant update on overall business to soften the blow. Brilliant ... you can't make it up!

I think this can go lower so long as there's a seller still in play. Let's face it, MW or other could just add to short with as little as 5m shares and likely push this down another 1/1.5p ... certainly into the 15s. However, I imagine it's more a case of them trying to buy as much as they can in the 16's and close the short with healthy profit. If they can do that before the seller disappears then there is unlikely to be a 'pop'. Then, with plenty of doubt still lingering, I'd imagine any short would re-open at 23/24 mark.

I have bought back in on these. I think the individual components of the business each hold value which considerably exceed the MCAP and it looks like I am one of the few that likes Ingenuity. That's a business which should be destined for NASDAQ as there the investors get the software model and the huge front end investments needed. Seems like a lot of moaning about how it's sucking up cash without a view of what it potentially turns into. The nature of product channel sales are rapidly changing and this business delivers a solution to brands to tackle some of this challenge.

Frankly, I'd not be adverse to selling Nutrition and getting Beauty straightened out and sell that too. Relatively mature parts with further growth potential which would get a decent multiple.

Agree with you Ambers. I sold out of what I had with intention to buy on news. Cash burn was really not good and quite a lot of lines are commoditised and available from Chinese suppliers. You set up an ecom solution very easily and quickly to sell a lot of it and MHCs cost base will be too high to compete profitably. Too much hinges on Boots sell through to bounce this back.

It’s just the same as what has gone before with this share. It’s kept down in the doldrums to tire those after quick wins…it then elevates pretty quick on no news. My guess is a relatively small free float makes it particularly susceptible to this. So long as not too many players jump on the bandwagon, it’s a nice little earner.

Just ambulance chasers. I had details leaked on easyjet breach. Was told by easyjet, one call to Amex and all good. How do those bottom feeders reckon I can get 2k without incurring a loss, god only knows. It’s just white collar scamming if you ask me.

Here will be just the same and they will seek sign ups for years. I think they take the case to some sort of insurer who then underwrites the cost of taking the case to court.

Well this is it Fish. They have created an unnecessary complexity. Post RI at 197 the MCP would be roughly 320m. At the 60p is was down to, the MCAP was roughly 275m, today it's more like 225m. Now post RI £276m is injected into the balance sheet (less some costs). Conservatively you'd think the MCAP would settle into the 450-500 range medium term. That would be about a £3 SP. This RI is largely paying debt, not cash to keep the business running like RR. was. The wheels are not off, demand is soft. I don't think that medium term is at all ridiculous.

Anyway each to their own but I'm looking at where I have got my average to now thinking my math must be wrong. If you execute through the RI with an average in the 40's it looks like you should make a very decent turn in a very short period.

I think it's more like algos are running for the shorts to reduce/clear. It'll then get run up and the shorting cycle will start all over again.

Oh ... that might possibly be manipulation and that definitely does not happen on the UK exchange...ever. Got it wrong again.