Member Info for joseywales

Well the money I took out of here I bought more JUP at sub 90p so I'm sort of happy. I don't short. Actually that 4% is under a million shares so actually no biggie ... I thought it might start dropping today ahead of next week but that 230 seems strong.

I am not concerned about the company's forward looking position. I just was not going to hold so many shares on what is more likely going to be a drop on the 140m submission. Still have a holding just in case, but the odds would seem to be in your favour of a visit to 200.

The below does not make much sense. JUP have 11% of SYNT before the SYNN shares get put into the pot next week. They have a little over 2m of 20m shares in sYNT which becomes 2M of 160m next week. I'd say it's also likely they sold their nil paids early on avoiding something like a 40%+ drop in them in the ensuing days. Just smart fund management. As it turns out I reduced some SYNT and bought more of these today!

Really don't get the UBS downgrade but it has effectively driven JUP down on no volume.

GMHK - can't say I don't blame you. Seen those shorts all coming in and I have reduced with view to buying after RI. With the notification timings I am assuming some will be in at the 230 mark and they generally are not shorting for slim pickings either. Beggars belief but I guess if it really does go sub that 197, it is what it is!! I don't think it has anything to do with the company, it's actually the 'process' being shorted.

Will be interesting to see what happens at Metro. People who feel it was a bum deal here, might think twice if Metro ends up being more of a capital event/restructure type affair.

At least it gives holders a bit more confidence. Just have to wait now.

Whilst I know it went to 50p before, I don't buy into that this time around. Like I've said earlier, I reckon this gets back to mid 20s and then shorts open again for final 2023 results. Whilst EBITDA might show positively, under that line it's a dog's breakfast ... just can't see that turning out well.

Right now they have two big contracts under renewal negotiations which should (if win announced) point the sails in the right direction. The downside into the close of the year is the sale of that travel business which looks like another £40m non-cash writedown. The businesses they have sold of late have all generated a deficit between the cash received and the asset book value. They just need to finally clear the decks in H2 and let 2024 be they year of SP recovery and dividend re-instatement.

Oh ... and start generating cash rather than setting it on fire would help too!

When I bought back in a while back I asked the question about it and it was my biggest concern about this ticker. The thing is for any meaningful compensation there has to be a loss. I think the risk is marginal and you would expect they would have had a cyber policy in place covering such liability.

Considering the Russians are hacking everything they can, I personally belief common sense will prevail when it comes to any fine (not that there's a lot of it in this country right now).

Sounds like it's a minefield when picking these trading platforms. HSBC's share trading service is horrific at best but even there, the nil rights are on the system.

I haven't checked in on this one for a while. Really thought it broke the 90s the other day but I guess a short has increased. UK PLC has just been taking such a pummelling for last few months now. Just the FTSE250 has dropped from 19200 end of July to 17,500 today. That's just brutal and we are now at summer 2020 levels.

I get why a 5/6% (tax free) gilt is a no brainer and few listed companies can compete with that. HOWEVER, MCG in theory does and provides an outlook providing significant capital return on the SP in the relatively short term (within a year) plus a decent divi.

My biggest fear, is the slightest negative message on the 19th Oct is going to keep this in limbo or worse. I think the schools in the US went back in August ... I hope 2 months of data is enough to show a positive trend there. That should just about do it for the 19th.

Sorry should have added that when I sell for the penny, I buy back re-investing 100% so I've effectively grown my holding by about 12k shares over the last month.

Trenners, I'm with Xenor. I have done this a couple of cycles with about 30% of what I hold. Get the risk but if it catapults, I still have a holding that I make a very good profit on way sooner than expected. Personally I just thing we are a little way this finding it's way to the 20s. I believe it will happen as the MCAP makes no sense. However, in the absence of an update showing positive steps in FCF and profit, this will likely be a slow burn.

On II I think it only works on PC not the app. Look at corporate actions in portfolio. I have not checked if it’s there yet but the deadline for II is the 9th Oct with cleared funds to cover.

So GMHk…

Let’s say 200m of debt is paid with RI. From what I can see…

Net assets would be 1.2bn

EBITDA 150m forecast 2023 (70m H1 in demand trough)

300m target by management (questionable)

At 100p your investment analysis gives this a destined market cap of 160m?

I am clearly missing something so what stats are you seeing?

Poleaxe, the trading dynamic of this are completely overtaken by the RI. As bad news as it is, it was the debt which triggered it. Better to have this ugly RI than a capital event down the road triggered by covenants which would be pennies in the £!.

All leveraged companies have been clobbered by the market for this very fear. Many of these companies seem 'undervalued' but that's not because the market it wrong, it's just more risk averse in light of the death of 'ZIRP' and QE.

If they come out the otherside of the debt issue without RI / selling of parts of the business etc, they become multi-baggers. Unfortunately SYNT probably does not present that opportunity anymore but some might see a decent recovery in MCAP in the relative short term after the dust settles on this RI.

Past is the past and all that. Some will feel past decisions and poorly executed management are culturally embedded in the company, some will feel that more learned oversight is now in place to move the company forward.

It's a shorters paradise at the moment but that will turn pretty quickly I imagine.

If you had shares in SYNT last Wednesday, you get the nil paid rights. To buy nil paid rights you have to go through 'competence' compliance. To sell them, it's just market assigned price now.

SYNT fully tradeable but if you take HSBC you cannot buy them .... I'm not sure if you can sell them either. If that's the case with other platforms then it kind of explains the ticker activity. Does not seem like people even know what's happening when you call HSBC either ... they've not even set up systems for accepting the rights yet. Takes incompetence to a whole new level frankly.

T212 ... I kind of have similar with HSBC ... no options to by SYNT on their platform and from Mon-Wed last week, no option to trade SYNT whilst fully tradeable before and after consolidation. I made an official complaint. I also asked the FCA if there were guidelines for the speed of process in effecting changes on their platform.

On another ticker RDT, consolidation happened on something like 22/10 and the shares only appeared on the platform last week. Still not fully tradeable on their platform.

I've had no problems with II really.

Interesting GMHK ... it's really throwing out a real range of opinion. I bought today in the 230's and still kept all my rights. Thought it might be a fast trade as early as next week.

Might prove to be lunacy, but SYNTs reasoning for RI and commercial condition are so far away from AML,ASOS,TUI, etc. Now we won't know till after the fact but you also have a CEO on the hook for £300K for shares purchased in June. If the directors opt all in, that in theory should be a fast RNS post RI.

Will certainly be interesting to watch. Late to the game shorting but maybe there is a turn to be made. A lot of sellers will be flushed out not wanting to stump up the 1.97. Thing is, there will be a lot of funds already short and then there will be some that sold down before RI and will seek to buy back in when the smoke clears. Being fully underwritten I can't see you exiting a 2.40 short until well after the RI if at all. The fully underwritten aspect is important in all this.

It's certainly a term. Sell your shares at 2.50 or whatever it is, use that to buy the rights.

Frankly this is already in the end game as there's not much difference in the math between buying shares now at £2.50 and selling rights vs selling at £2.50 and buying rights at £1.97. It's all based on where you hedge the SP to be.

This is just crazy complicated and brutal.

Basically your breakeven is below based on you unit cost before the consolidation event:

40p - 283p

200p - 854p

At the £2.50 level the companies market cap is pitched at about 400-420m. The £276m is predominantly for debt and a bit for sandbagging against continuing demand 'trough'. Forecast EBITDA for this year is £150m which in theory should not produce cash drain. What they might have is a non-cash writedown based largely on the Eastman acquisition.

Those that state the £1.50 destination are pitching at a £220m type mcap, those for a rise to 400p are pitching at a £640-660m.

Management are claiming they can return to 300m Ebitda ... so a net debt valuation of about 1.2bn would be fair if they could actually achieve that.

Whilst this has lost it's a appeal as a 'mutli-bagger', it would seem like there is some medium term opportunity for potential quick turn as well as holding long. However I think January is the next time we hear from management ?

I just got another 20K under 16.4 .... really did not think we'd be back here but hey ho. It's just trade volume ... it's horrific at the moment and there not light until there is some positive news and action on rates, inflation, gilt yields etc

Was trying to work out the rational for it myself. Obviously Evergrande, inflation and US govt wrangling could possibly mean tightening of belts but since it's a high net worth game, can't see that being issue.

Volume is low so maybe it's not an institution selling.

Probably still a few shorts sub 0.50 so maybe they are using news feed to pull this down to buy back all the way up to 600 or whatever it was last week. News these days is just death by a thousand cuts. We need more A-listers being cancelled and the like to get the news away from economic woes!!

For what ever reason it seems like a decent buying opportunity. You'd imagine the directors would not have bought in if there was the likelihood of bad news round the corner.