Member Info for joseywales

I'm still waiting to see how this plays out. Sold out at 21p and I think this is going to steadily track backwards going into the update. The problem is the lengthening of the timeline into profitability and cash generation. Got to remember that JL was talking about divi's back in 2022 which have clearly not emerged. All well and good talking about 'targets' but all the same was spouted in 2020. In the meantime, they are hugely vulnerable to any sizable contract loss until they get that profit and FCF healthy. We also need a confirmation that nothing will come in significant fines around the cyber incident (or maybe that's happened and I missed it).

In my opinion the results on the 14th will be encumbered by 'exceptionals' and maybe intangible writedowns.

Well I find it hard to believe, but the tear sheet I was just looking at showed an RSI of 3.24 which I have never seen before. Does anyone have access to data showing a different RSI number?

At the end of the day it's just gambling the numbers but my view of the actual risk exposure make it a lot of fun down at this SP level. Very happy to hold what I buy. If the trade volumes were a multiple of what they are I'd be concerned a little, but this is just small trade capitulating SP for accumulation on the other side.

LOTM ... is you're thinking this gets taken back up to 185 or like and then pressure towards the 160's?

Cash generation is my concern Trisor.

Not sharing the optimism generated by that RNS. Subtext to me reads that they are not making enough margin in the business. Took my nigh on 21p but will be interesting to see what happens on the 14th.

You have compared it with a completely different industry sector where revenue recognition and margin landscape are completely different. Your point always is incompetent management and that this company will die by a thousand cuts ... or something like that.

The update was not too concerning if you follow the industry sector and updates coming from them. I already mentioned Croda's on this board.

Yes, horrific dilution but the slightly better side has been the volatility on this share which others are enjoying.

To the actual numbers, if they achieve the 150m ebitda (or near) then that'll be roughly half the market cap.

You'll be able to take another short at 215 tomorrow!

I have to be honest and say I would not buy where it is now. I have an average holding below 180 but I'd traded a hell of a lot over the whole RI period which cost me in the end.

The SP is holding on low volume so either one of the main players needs to pump liquidity into the system or this will steadily climb.

Well I'll take oversold GoTrader. If they could do it all over again that would be nice!

Looks like it has not. Grabbed some at 27.26 but who knows where this bottoms out. They're going to need a strong Xmas run that's for sure!

You say that, but a lot of their debt is at fixed rates in currency in which debt is held. One thing they have definitely been good at is the debt structure. Even that 500m bond was at a decent rate given where things are at the moment.

Even if there's a game being played to keep this down, the fact no other funds are seeing this as an opportunity and buying heavily (into the 80's at least), makes me question the validity of perceived value here.

This steady decline all began with those JP Morgan cash settled equity swaps.

Well between yesterday and today I have sold about 2 thirds of what I had so I am sure this will keep on climbing just to teach me another lesson I won't learn from! To go from 13's to 16s in a few days on no news makes me think it's just as likely to get pounded again in a week or two.

I think the issue with the management is they have zero desire or motivation to address the SP. One element is clearly not having the cash to do it right now and the other I think is sheer apathy as the heavily invested institutions see more, and are clearly ok with it. In fact the opportunity for them is strengthening their positions and taking the shares from weaker retail investors who will jump ship with their profit at 70/80/90p if any rise can be managed very slowly.

I think we are likely just going to bounce in historic lows until some light is shed on the disposal.

Aside from that, I like the increased level of below 10 share trades we are seeing of late which might well be some 'players' trying to work out what's going on with this ticker trade.

I've been in this share since about Feb time. So I'm not quite as frustrated as others. However, it has been a dog with limited volatility on its way down.

Was not expecting great news but that was surprisingly poor. Sold at the start of the day and bought back in at 30. It's still nigh on £300m annual sales in a business where the actual product margins are relatively stable. It's not for the faint hearted for sure but I thought the fact they remained in positive EBIT territory after such an horrific drop was one small plus!

Maybe they could split out and sell the US business?

Systematica are still at 1.21.

I know it's too easy to be cynical of the practice but I do wonder if they are using those 6.5m shares or so to maintain the decline in the 200 day average which would support and possibly legitimise a relatively low ball offer. The extended period of decline has also enabled holders to get averages significantly down to sell into such an offer.

At the end of the day, it would pretty much replicate what happened with the AA.

Saw that yesterday and bought back in here. Covenant risk is likely keeping this down but he does not seem the sort of pedigree that would join a company that's doomed to miss covenants. Imagine they will be close to the bone but maybe the threat of any significant capital event has diminished a little.

If you take both BT and HTWS who reported today .... it basically shows how debt laden (asset heavy) businesses have been severely hammered and it's just a matter of trying to pick the ones that can manage the debt and maintain guidance in both profitability and cash generation.

I personally feel that MCG gains will be lost next week. Shorts probably bought a fair chunk today and will just sell it down over no news/bad news days. Need traction on the NA process and some proper numbers in terms of value and interest... otherwise it's still a company that pulled the divi and downgraded guidance within just a few months.

I'd have said both was a good option but I think that re-rate by Cannacord is going to punish JUP's SP once the fervour over the rates subsides. 70p target seems completely ridiculous but probably another factor to create some short term SP challenge here.

I thought the last report read ok considering. If the industry you are in is suffering, all you can do is mitigate and right-size. I thought the pipeline looked quite encouraging. They need to somehow reduce the income reliance from smartphone ... no idea how they effectively do that though.

They made a rather questionable acquisition M1600. You'd usually be making those to add to your EBITDA line. However much they overpaid, EBITDA contribution flows through eventually. (Don't forget they were tracking 150 this year alone).

The read through from Elementis yesterday would make shorting this a pretty logical play. You don't strike me as an analysis/research based player though. Better lucky than diligent I guess.