Member Info for joseywales

I think that's wishful thinking. I reckon they will try and keep it down at this level for a while to optimise what they could recover on a campaign up to 40p or more. I think my purchases set for 27 and 26p will still be triggered this week ... but then who knows!!

Pokerchips ... as we all know, the post EBIT impairments can often be non-cash. I am no LTH of this share but when things got into the teens it seemed like an opportunity. The news then made it clear that no immediate threat was imminent and that they have time to address the financing shortfall. It also looks like a much lower figure than was being touted about.

I sold over Xmas and started buying again last week. On no volume maybe this will continue to drop a bit more but the way I see it is that it's simply a waiting game to see which short breaks ranks and starts to clear. Looks like even a few million will bump the price significantly higher.

It certainly has someone's attention today!

Yes you might be right Hedge. I'm more looking at where I exit as I have less faith in the 50p. It's a pretty easy double and I'll move on.

50p with seasoned MD/CFO/CTO structure I'd have more faith in. If you look at Recommerce Group, whilst they are not listed, they have gone through a few funding rounds and the investors have insisted on placing 'seasoned' players at the forefront of the business and the old owners a more backseat role but with a 'credible' title.

By staying at the business forefront Oliver and the tech guy, have likely built an excessive middle management structure of 'yes' people who keep the business 'cosy'. If they really wanted to push the envelope revenue wise, they'd have put themselves into 'strategic' roles and got in some proven scale makers. Certainly not 'comfortable'.

For this reason it's why I continue to define it as a nice 'lifestyle' business that timed an IPO and it's messaging to perfection.

Not sure how much Shell's impairment on their chemicals business this morning should be read across into this. Long term I still think this is a good investment but starting to wonder if the short term might still have some surprises. Was feeling quite content till I saw that news this morning which again just mentioned 'macro' factors.

Hedge…been on the other side of the fence before and an MBO at 20-28 could be done .An EQ company would structure something where current Iis could remain with blood in game but take haircut to introduce % holding for EQT in newco. They then quickly put in a cash raise to flush out a few holders and increase their own.

Also other ways it could be done but bottom line is PIs take the 20p or whatever it is.

Completely separately, the Red Sea issue will likely mean constraint on a lot of new supply. Whilst it makes capturing the product hard, they will see some robustness on sales and reduced price attrition in the short/medium term.

Interesting seeing that info on Millenium and British Land…for several reasons that’s an amateur hour increase in short. Too long for this chat board. The problem is, it’s not their money and you’d assume they have a change in fund managers or like that’s trying to prove their metal and taking some very significant risk. In the past I used to see them follow MW quite closely. If they are not in cohort with a peer building long, then could hurt them.

Also from memory I think they may have been shorting network international quite a bit … and then the offer came in.

On an exchange where the trading volume is failing its constituents, there’s a lot easier prey than risking it in the US!

I'm not sure I get it but anyway the window trade here I do get. Eventually it has to pop one way or the other though. Personally I think when/if there is confirmation on the forecast EBITDA mentioned last year, that should shift the dial as WalkieT already mentioned. I'm hoping it will get to 300+ level this year but who knows....world's a messed up place at the moment.

I'd also add that GLG reduced under the threshold some time back too. So serious players are leaving. What you are left with is the high risk/big reward merchants playing with funds which allow them that luxury. Looks like more needs to be borrowed and pumped in to maintain downward pressure. Certainly makes things interesting and everyone's in for the high risk/big reward ride on either side of the fence!!

I'd have thought we'd get a Q2 update in the next week or two.

Without volume this stock is too easily 'handled'. One day an offer will hit the table ... but for now it seems it just trades in a 30p or so window and that's just about to be moved downwards!

The problem is the naysayers do not demonstrate any commercial/business acumen/argument to back up the stance they take. I don't say the business is great ... I just see it worth mid 20s per share in a short period as it just needs to focus on profit at the cost of revenue and any grand ambitions of scale.

Diamondguru, it's well known inside and outside the business that hard media dies ... and you clearly read my first paragraph.

Your answer to paragraph 3 is about 1.5-2k iphones covering direct cost too. That's an educated guess based on where ASPs likely are on that particular category.

Paragraph 4 - I call that smart timing and people piled in with a complete lack of understanding, buying the scale up story. (Which was never about hard media really). You can go back to Foneback as well spinning the same vinyl. Analysts bought into it and perhaps better paid ones would have worked it out.

Sustainable as a lifestyle business with opportunities to grow into B2B/consumer IOT EOL solutions etc. Plenty of opportunity for focussed development.

So you simply want to measure the saving against the 1.97. So basically every time you do a trade at 12p profit per share, then every 17 shares (more or less) you bank a share of 197 profit. So 56000 share in these trades you've been doing basically gives you the 3300 @ 197 as invested as opposed to banked profit.

Am I following you? So it's just a matter of tracking you average profit per share on your trades to get to the math?

Well done LOTM. Hopefully you got back in when you could buy at a little over 171 today. I'm not sure I understand the accounting issue you have. Did you sell your rights or did you take them up?

I think it's actually quite refreshing that its holding where it is. Usually this one gives back any decent gain quicker than a robber's dog.

That really has given me a good chuckle. I'm going to predict we will see 345 in the next 18 months. I feel like I'm on the path to genius now.

At this stage they are not looking at company fundamentals and all that being mentioned on here. It's simply math and how the SP can work for them. They have little exposure to big broker/investor purchases so it's just a matter of balance between their millions of units and the free float.

Shared my thoughts earlier and seem like they are pumping more into the system to help bring the SP down. Hoping that 26p level is the worst if it comes. It'll bounce as there comes a level where the algo says 'no'!

I lost a lot of money on the 'physical media' argument back when HMV popped. Really believed it would survive alongside digital. Anyway, irrelevant now since the CD/DVD stuff will always decline bit by bit each year until it bottoms out for the hardcore hoarders.

This business is not doomed. It's just not destined to be as big as some want it to become. I've seen many companies in the secondary space and all are challenged when delivering both profitability and scale. Most end up downsizing a little and then selling for a decent multiple based on a sustainable business which is cash generative and can produce YoY returns.

This applies to other sectors than just devices. Consumer driven solutions are just too hard to scale I guess.

The actual effective scale sits with the IBM GRS / Ingrams etc who you'll never hear too much about - simply a different space not dependent on low transactional volumes. Plenty of large businesses with secondary units making more margin than their primary business.

That said, I hold a good amount here now. 10-11p is seriously undervaluing the business. Whilst I do not share the optimism of others in terms of business value, I do think an MBO is a likely outcome and from there, this can be run as a lifestyle business without the hassle of additional compliance.

Personally I've factored my buying into the 20's. I started at 37 and simply bought on each penny drop. Could do without it going sub 26p mind! That run to 40p+ was something but it's been pulled back way too easily. Just have to have patience as I assume news will be a way off relating to what solution there will be ... particularly when operating within covenants.

My 10 penneth worth is…

A. ii’s are releasing shares to them and a consolidated investor structure with them taking the lead is being put in place to take private. Towards last knocking, some familiar eqt name will pop up who’s managing much of the financing/structure. There’s then a remaining share purchase which will see it sold sub 180 or lower. You’d know by end of Jan.

B. Cosmens increase sub 30% and it’s simply a money play in anticipation of dividends/special dividends outstripping any finance cost/opportunity cost.

C. There’s an approach they don’t like and they’re taking a lead in defending a potentially hostile takeover. However you’d raid the free float for that and 70m shares would have far more impact on the SP.

D. Things worse in the business and something afoot which could present them with an opportunity to grab on the ‘very’ cheap.

As I say just the accumulated nonsense running around in my head. Whatever the outcome, at least something is finally happening.