Member Info for joseywales

I've succumbed to buying a few more just to trade. If we get the 135-140 at the end of the week that would be pleasant enough. More likely I'll regret it by the end of the day!

Just catching up this morning. Has some information spilled out prior to market update or is this just some 'gathering' just to have another run downwards?

I'm watching VOD only. It drops like a stone and rises like I do out of bed in the morning! I just feel there are stocks which will find recovery much faster. In that sector I'd buy BT over VOD right now.

I was in NETW so realise how undervalued PAY is. However, they need to make that Appreciate work and deliver.

I still don't see the 50p becoming a reality. Somewhere between 25-50p would be a result. If there's no initial offer thrown on the table by end of Jan I think the offer period might as well be closed. I am guessing management's start point is not credible.

PD101 will then be able to buy the £60k and along with a few of us, hold out for a more general SP recovery which should come very quickly.

The debt level is not high in this business and even if they miss 7.5 EBITDA and deliver something terrible like 5 .... it's significantly undervalued at this level.

What's the scoop on PAY? I have been out of them for some time and felt that acquisition was going to be a challenge for them to monetise in a way to give shareholder value back. e.g. alot more work and revenue for the same profit.

For sure the space remains huge and each year I imagine the smart money continues to untether their handset and SIM. We have quite a few devices in this house which are never replaced with brand new and I've converted umpteen pals to the same. IF you know the game I don't know why you'd get brand new.

What has been a really interesting feature of late of late is the drop in pace of price attrition on devices. The increasing cost of flagship is really taking it's toll (I reckon) and that is simply going to leave a supply shortage in the secondary space. This next two years will be massive and MMAG really must be focussed on exceeding EBITDA forecasts.

I honestly don't know if they have the team to execute something like that. Needs someone in there to ask the tough questions and set the agenda for change if necessary.

I think we can agree to disagree Hedge.

Webuyanycar car is (or at least was) owned by British car auctions which if you then look into it, have the output to their own (significant) and 3rd party sales operations. They built avenues into the sales demand way before wbac. Basically their dealer network was reducing their trade in throughput to them.

In addition you are talking about manufacturer sale activity nowhere near as concentrated as carrier networks and mobiles You picked a poor example to deliver your point.

Anyway we both agree there’s significant upside to the current SP.

Just let robswire run wild, if people sell on his nonsense then great for us. I am happy to put another lump into this if it gets to 9/10.

Been here before hedge. It was not a recycle business. Operations were hugely about repair and mobile had reduced greatly by time of sale. They were servicing assets, not owning them. It's like saying Anovo before they sold to Ingram was a recycle company. Now Anovo was in that £60m number (BCP were the equity house who owned them) and have benefited greatly by failure at Redeem & Voda change from Brightstar etc. Integrating a level 1/2 capability into the buyback process and already having the largest insurance clients on your books helps scale!

Bottom line is, it's a different business and the carriers really do still have the clout to capture device volume. Trade-in houses scramble after the rest.

MMAG is UK leader in that space, Rebuy is in Germany and Recommerce is in France. The latter two have had multiple rounds of funding and similarly struggle delivering scale with profit.

I think this is very different to PFC. That could be a great ride but has with it some significant risk to the capital you put in there. Too much noise on that board but it probably offers the largest return in a short period of time if they find a suitable avenue to guarantees.

I think SYNT looks more like MCG/JUP type potential and probably similar timelines for it to get to the 300 type number. IT's going to take two or three positive updates to drive it. That said, when it moves, it does so with pace usually (which is different to the aforementioned).

I was reluctant when it was down at 120 today as various things have been rattling around my head both on the positive and negative side. I ended up not buying at the 120-122 and really don't know how ludicrous the below sounds in terms of what might be going on:

- forced seller down to strategic sector shift or similar

- Malaysians have their broker running a strategy to increase holding before update and possibly an offer to take private

- Hedge fund running short having seen how easily it was maintained between that 170-190 window for multiple cycles

- Fund looking to build holding and broker executing for them prior to update

- one or two have inside track on update and figuring market reaction will be brutal (WOSG style)

It will be interesting to see if drive comes back lowering the price again in the early part of next week.

Recommence in France and Rebuy in Germany would be better examples. Mazuma sold to EcoAsia for undisclosed and Fonebank to Tech Data. Redeem buckled as too did Hyla.

It’s just very hard to scale beyond a lifestyle business.

You can build all the fluffy stuff you like around it but 6-8 x EBITDA would be the window probably.

Lotm, I bought some trading batches at 160, 145 and 130….not sure I will buy more as decent movement has also ceased. Hopefully it’s not bad news around company fundamentals but it appears for now it’s just a waiting game.

…or there is simply a game being played. I bought some more, missed the low but 130 seemed ok. You in LOTM?

Down to 70p is a joke. You have to thank the market for being able to buy at that price! Report really was nothing less than expected.

Not a day to switch the computer on.

The cash is only needed for collateral to secure the bank guarantees required for new contracts. So worst case is they lose business momentum as a result of not being able to support the guarantee. Really a short 3 year asset backed loan of $200m would likely do the trick and the issue is agreeing an assets value which is why they probably indicated a divestment.

I confess to being a complete opportunist in terms of having some share here. Was never on my radar until December. I therefore have little experience of the past but I guess when they were trading at the highs they were paying out healthy dividends without a decent eye on risk / future proofing the balance sheet.

The shorts, (particularly the likes of GLG/MW) spend a lot of money with research companies which contact current and past employees to gather data. It's applicable to investment institutions in general and these 'research' companies can be huge in size/scale/reach. I am sure right now they are being paid overtime to get as much information they can through this avenue.

Then these companies may have relationships with the lending institutions (often clients themselves) through which they can get limited info and at least a heads up in terms of when announcements could be made.

Bottom line is they have more info than any PIs. The choice as a PI investor is simply do you believe they are swamping the free float to generate fear/dread of a massive dilution or at least an avenue for them to eventually exit relatively clean because of the PI 'relief' sell off on a climb even to 40p.

Or....could PFC genuinely need a mass dilution or even fail. The update left doors open to pretty much everything but failure and if anything hinted that a solution with the banks and customers could be achieved.

In this period where there is no news flow, it's clear the shorts will get their way and simply have a much bigger stick than PIs going on about burning them and the like. If you look at their entry points and factor in that these are always 'net shorts', you'll work out failure is very unlikely for them as well.

I don't particularly like the fact this has been taken below 26p with extreme ease but it is what it is. Hopefully we get news within the next month or so, but it does not look like there was any intense urgency to that update in December.

Good luck everyone but I think this is one to stick in the back of an ISA right now and leave. If you've bet red and it lands right, quite a lot of money to be made here without too much outlay.

Yes the RI was a killer.

Good luck on the flutter. At the end of the day a 20% reduction in broker forecast has been pretty much mirrored in the SP. If that's simply all it is, you could be onto a winner!

Its too complicated but I'll have a go ....

If you bought at 60p and took up the rights at 1.97, you'd have needed to fork out another £10K. Your 20K would have bought you a post rights position of about 5833 shares worth about 7.5K or so at today's price.

Alternatively you could have sold your rights on the 5000 shares for about 1.30ish. So you'd have got 7.5K back of your 10K and have 833 shares worth about £1200.

Don't take this as being 100% correct ... I think I have it right but it was complicated enough at the time let alone a few months later.

Makes me laugh that the SP is about where you could have sold the rights for right now!!

It looks tempting but I know the minute I buy a tranche it will just drop another 10p. Early days of someone selling or a hedge fund playing with it in my opinion so not worth the risk of playing. Will keep the several K I bought in the 150's to trade but fancy that red number will grow before any recovery.

LOTM I hope you're doing ok and hope this gets back to a sensible window for you soon.

At this level you just need to look at what you are risking. If it's an RI, you'll get out selling the rights or whatever and maybe lose 25-30% from here. Ditto if there is some other kind of raise.

If there is a solution with lenders/suppliers, you double your money and then some.

The shorts can't keep adding every day for too much longer. Funny thing is, they are probably borrowing the very same shares that PI's are buying via the various platform providers! Can't make it up really.