Member Info for joseywales

Wondered where you'd gone GMHK.

I'm guessing the covenant one liner has been picked up on. This has been run by A trades for a while now and it must have been a short running which is now clearing. Hopefully with time we will nudge the RI price and even get in the 200's.

Going to be interesting to see what the market makes of it. No nasty surprises and you’d hope the ugly numbers are more than factored into the SP.

If anything the cash generation is positive and they have confirmed the covenant relaxation has been agreed this month.

Roll on a more positive update in next news we hear!

Well my couple of months comment looks silly ... I'll claim a typo and say I meant hours. I imagine with a bit of time this should get to that year high number of 60p or so.

The way I see it is in a few weeks the year high is 25p. Trailing averages for 90 days will be 13-15 region at best. So an MBO or similar becomes viable at a discount to year high and increment to trailing average. So in my opinion (which is worth sweet FA!), there's either a lot to be made from this SP within a small timeframe or maybe a small loss on news that there will be no news, and business as usual for next year or so!

That's the spirit WT. I went for ITV this morning as DARK got away from me and ITV was only up about 5% on buyback and divi.

Results which have been coming through are generally positive and nice to see BODs are seeing buybacks as the pathway to value.

When it comes to SYNT ... I am taking the view not to buy more however attractive it gets before Tuesday. 2024 could well be a forecast of more revenue drop which will impact that EBITDA line. They have no way to defend the SP and with the Malaysians holding so much it's not really a business open to be acquired by anyone but them.

Well WT, DARK reads well this morning. Really should smash through that 400 which has been a ceiling for some time. A couple to buy at open this morning if train not already missed.

Should be positive when that buyback represents 25% of what’s out there at todays SP. Will be interesting to see what the sale of the US business brings in as well.

Buyback could be defensive play as well. As they go through the US process, some might try low ball offers which they might need to defend.

Will buy some more at open if nothing too much happens to SP. Could look very good in a couple of months.

I think the read across from Croda would indicate the demand 'trough' has extended. Should be in line with the update you'd think. What we really need to hear is confirmation that the slackening of covenants has been extended.

WT ... I guess I will add more SYNT on Friday if it continues to be taken down.

I don't hold IQE long. Was all out today to increase cash holding more than anything. It dipped because of Apple pulling plug on a vendor which had little relevance. I just think there's always an excuse with that company so won't hold long term.

Quite a few results tomorrow. Hopefully some reds will change colour!

I’d forget buying at 16p. This is a train wreck. Cash generation collapsed and net debt added 100m. Thought mr market might be overplaying it but it would seem through all the contracts they might have, they are mostly onerous…

Hi WT,

Certainly some carnage out there. Added another 50K of PFC today from 23.76 downwards. Topped up FCH and added THG. Exited FRES and a little OCDO and IQE. Sat on some nasty red numbers for the minute with a little cash still available to add to PFC if they succeed pulling it down further.

Portfolio value has certainly taken a pounding over the last week or so. Hope it's not 2023 pt2. Anything I'm holding long is just bleeding and none of these quick trades can recover that number.

Of course funds will be selling what they consider lame ducks this month so should be expected I guess.

NASDAQs going mental so DARK might follow down tomorrow. I didn't catch the Crowdstrike results for any read across. 335 is my number on DARK but I'm light on powder at the moment.

I think we are all there or thereabouts in terms of future value here. Just a matter of when.

Best not mention Redeem and Hyla ... didn't pan out so well! How's Bamboo doing these days? ... seemed to remember Jamie worked with them after he sold up to Trever Bayley etc. There's a business that could use MMAGs supply.

Hedge, it does not matter. The success of any secondary market player in any product is supply. The reduced risk of volatile price attrition is the only benefit.

MMAG is vulnerable to enhanced retail / service provider / OEM activity. At point of sale solutions are a big threat ... they are simply not that good at the moment.

No point trying to ramp this ... if there's no buyer/solution it will simply be a matter of waiting on positive results later in the year or beyond.

Two of my buys are showing as sells ... felt that SP was too good not to top up. Just looks like some games at play. Roll on Thursday. If they have managed to maintain increase in the US then this business will attract some interest. Feel this is an opportunity to be in close/at the bottom.

Screwed by Brexit and screwed by sycophantic politicians which would be well placed in some of the most politically corrupt nations of the world. It's not like other countries have their challenges ... at least the Trump saga is making our diabolical look ordinary.

Personally I don't think a UK exchange will exist in the future ... certainly no scale to it. We will be marginalised more and more unless more countries leave the EU and the whole framework is adjusted. Big shout out to the pensioners who should not have been able to vote on the future of their children!

RNS is fine. Basically confirms they have no news on new liquidity injections to support the guarantees needed. At the end of the day that's finance for growth to support pipeline. Operating within covenants is the big one. They are continuing to do that which will open up options whilst the SP make d4E/raise options simply not that viable for long term support of business. Shorts are playing for breach, they have taken the RI/D4E options off the table already for time being.

Will definitely add on drop. Far from disastrous and cost/inflation jump have been navigated. Outlook should be very promising for longer term.

Bighand, I hold a little under 250K shares. I am a firm believer it is hugely undervalued at this SP.

However I am becoming increasingly concerned about outlook. It should be thriving right now (as are Mazuma and the like). Instead it's a business which has burdened itself with the overhead attached to grand plans for growth which has failed to materialise.

If they are announcing redundancies and scaling things back, then the reality must be there is no buyer / exit solution. Could well be that this turns into a longer term recovery. Sounds like they are taking the right approach. As harsh as it is, businesses have to rightsize or simply fail. Across ITAD the jobs market is hugely bouyant as too is the appetite to buy ITAD companies...I am sure those effected will be presented quickly with opportunities.

Hi WT,

Yes PFC could be interesting but I’m watching IQE. Bought a few yesterday and will add on way down. Also grabbed OCDO…madness some of the stuff going on.

Lotm…like you I was just watching SYNT but when it went below 145 yesterday it seemed a bit overkill. Of course it could get worse today but it all seems to be done on no volume. Croda said demand trough still in place so assume it’s just a reaction to that.

Well at sub 145 this is interesting. Such low volume driving it as well. Added a few. Assume this is purely off the back of the US data likely to be somewhat disappointing. Probably just need to re-adjust to an acceptance that higher rates need to remain until Lurpak is back to £3.00 per 500g.

I've bought in at the high 400s ... what's happened this morning seems strange. I think you're right and shorts are playing. The indicators look far better than they have done previously and this appears less of a gamble moving forwards. Imagine the funds will see this too and slowly reduce/exit their short positions in the coming months. Can certainly see it a 6/7 before dropping again into summer.