Member Info for joseywales

I've sold a few just in case this gets taken back down again. More than likely retail has driven today. Still hold plenty so please make me totally wrong!

Think I gave it the kiss of death today by adding to holding here! Oh well, not long till we get news.

@Tylo ... there was nothing indicating any immediate need to do that and so long as they focus on profit and cash generation then it's not something likely. They certainly looked topside of their facility though.

These businesses burn cash like it's going out of fashion when they are trying to push growth cycles. 2024 should just be a year where they settle down, put profit and cash back on the books. Just deliver a company where investors can see a future where return is possible. It just won't be the size that perhaps Cannacord and Shroders were hoping for.

As to the muted price response and guesses around it ... I imagine a fund got wind of the fact that SYNT were talking to banks about extending the timeline of the covenant breathing room they currently have. Without knowing the entirety of the situation and typically low volume trade to easily execute an effective short, the fund shorted from 180ish down to 120s and it's their algo we're been seeing in recent weeks. You could assume that no big buyer will appear off a trading statement and will await the finals in March. So we have a period where that fund will slowly manage their exit or hedge into the results presentation.

You're flat out wrong Wigwammer but I decided you were simply thrush a long time ago. You never got holding and trading. Maybe take your narcissism to another board that loves that stuff ... VAST used to be good for people like you ... go talk diamonds in the rough. Gutted I bit and will go back to ignoring you again.

This board is usually quiet with decent dialogue about the company and the usual stab in the dark as to ups and downs.

It might not happen today but you’d expect this to climb back to 160/180 pretty quickly.

There’s a few things the naysayers could grab hold of in there.

Better than expected really. Ebitda reasonable and more importantly cash generation. Just need the industry wide lull to swing.

3.5 times debt to ebitda is the anchor. Improving volumes would sort that out immediately.

I can only imagine something has kicked off with management and Cannacord/Shroders whereby they don't see value being realised anytime soon. Oliver has 33m shares of which 10m were at issue and the other 23m carry a 30/40p average. Probably standing firm on a value for the business which is simply not there. It's that owner run business problem ... same like you see in THG and a few others where emotional and business attachments get all muddled up.

If Shroders decide to sell all their holding, then we could see 10's and lower for a few months unless there's some positive business direction news.

You've made a very logical decision there LOTM. I failed to, so just hope any backwards movement is simply a blip. At some point the tide has to turn and this SP level seems crazy really.

Thinking of jumping back in simply because the cash position eclipses the MCAP. I genuinely thought they'd burn through some.

The negative is that the cogs that turn the wheel of this company is Covid and the subtext is that other tests are just struggling to gain traction to get to some kind of scale to support the company.

WT…new one for me today was FCH. Been there before and did ok. Other than general holdings I have too many projects on go at the moment like this one. Started selling down PFC today.

Good luck LOTM.

This is being run by algos at the moment so I'm sat on the sides and will likely hold through the update unless we see a considerable upward trend. Commercially it would need to be a disaster of an update to send people running for the doors . However, with someone's algos running it on too lower volume ... it could be a long period in the doldrums waiting for an uptick in positive news feed from SYNT.

This looks too cheap now. Been here before on a rise to over 50 from memory so back for a similar journey hopefully.

Hopefully March report will show some traction on the profitability side.

I think they paused before and it went to 12/13 and they started selling again. Irrelevant now for me as loaded as much as I care to on this.

Crazy cheap at that 10.50/11 spread. Was EBITDA forecast at £7.5m? There's a very big disconnect when a company MCAP is well under 2 x EBITDA. From memory they just have a revolving £30m credit facility with the rest of debt simply being leases/IFRS junk.

That's the way I see it Hedge. Should know shortly if Cannacord are continuing to sell off their 4% or so.

On the flipside, this process is a couple of months in now so there really should be some news regarding offers or inability to find a buyer at the right price. Just need to move on from limbo really.

Can't see how it's oversold when Cannacord are pretty much supplying the liquidity needed.

Just a case of sit tight and wait now ... maybe add a few more on additional drops in SP where (like today) the spread is not ridiculous.

Just depends how Tuesday goes. Potentially MCAP is significantly under 2 x EBITDA ... so prospects from this price level could be very exciting within a relatively short timeframe.

If Tuesday is considerably worse than expected, then there will be too many questions about management's ability to forecast accurately and the market will give the SP a kicking.

No idea about the brokers timings. Sort of coincided with the big drop from 180 but that must be sheer coincidence since none of them are a 'bad' read.

Whatever was going on, there were two purchases totalling 120K shares which seem to have spooked whatever was happening.

RD90, if that's what you think will happen you should sell up and run.

There's no real commercial argument for it though. The carpets business is getting kicked into touch because it's not profitable ... that's just simple good management.

The base chemicals business is highly commoditised and therefore highly vulnerable to the demand lull and a race to the bottom against competitors. Again smart management to put investment and resource into end markets on speciality businesses.

None of us know what's driving it so you can't really say it will hit lower lows or actually rebound. Personally I don't think we will see a great update. There's simply no sector recovery yet. This is one good update from significant bounce but I would not rely on that coming next week. I'm happy to have a punt on the Malaysians looking to take this private.

The Red Sea issue will be a blip in supply chain across industries which will quickly adapt to new routing times. The real issue is if it then drives inflationary pressure again in Europe.