Member Info for joseywales

I guess it all goes back to investment in the UK exchange. Simply not enough participation in it leaving a whole raft of companies seemingly undervalued significantly. It’s not a particularly new dynamic of last 20yrs but brexit and covid seem to have exacerbated it over that time.

US data not great … might be a while till money gets cheaper again.

Market has been kicking companies which push through intangible write downs. Has no impact on cash generation, just reported profit. That's why they confirmed it would not impact return to shareholders. Load of fuss about very little. They bought companies and now they are not worth what they paid/put on the balance sheet .... wow ... hardly unique.

#Hateintangibles

Well I would not describe it as banking it. Got put into other stocks where I can lose it all just as easily as grow it!

My concern would be that you have a short in here realising that the SP can be taken down with relative ease and low volume. It might actually be a smart way to not only cover the short but build a long.

I'm surprised this stock does not get more attention. I can't remember the numbers exactly but I think the EBIT number was forecast at about 150m (I need to be corrected if that is an EBITDA number). Lets assume the RI money was used to reduce debt to 500m the debt (post IFRS) and the rest absorbed by capex/restructuring projects.

Conservatively it should be a 1bn company (on debt free basis) which would pitch price at the high £2s/low 3s.....

To be honest I sold half just now at 364 ... moving into some stocks which will fair very well if US inflation reading affirms rate reduction likely. I'm sure it will go higher but I went rather big in the 320s and can spread it again.

LOTM ... do you reckon this seller has a floor like 150 or similar. I'm not a chartist or anything but can see from the trades that something is still going on.

It was positive ARR growth and outlook. Not blowing the doors off but steady and reassuring. To be in the 320's was ridiculous. A bit like this here in 150s.

Update dropped on dark today WT. Should get your 350 and then some…if Uncle market plays fair of course!

You’re right LotM. Makes little sense on Mcap vs RI here. Mind you, just look at what Schroeder’s just did at PFC….if a fund needs to sell I guess they just have to and take what they can get.

I've grabbed a few K LOTM. No idea what the game is but I'd rather be here at this price than CPI for the time being.

Frustratingly I'm still sat on my hands. Hope you do well LOTM and with a following wind I might get to buy some in a while.

He could have simply heard mumbles in the insurance sector. Assurion would be a good fit after all. I just wonder if the price management probably want to settle for (outside of MBO) could be hit. They hold a lot and might even have some personal debt assigned against that early post IPO valuation muddying the waters.

I guess my point is the SP has significantly bridged the point at which an RI would be acceptable. So those holding short are pitching for company failure as opposed to an ability to sort the liquidity issue out. Also, it really sounds like you are talking $100-150m to sort the short term.

I personally think they will get headroom from current lenders at a cost. I've always messed about with HTWS. Whilst it has a very different margin stack it has a ludicrous debt figure and somehow they manage to get financing albeit at a premium.

It really is just the same daily cycle. Down at low 26, up to the highs, back into the 25s I imagine. Followed it today and bought this morning, sold just now and will see if I buy in the 25s again. I was buying in tranches but decided to simply have fun with the last tranche left!

Personally I think an RI is off the table because of the crushed SP. Who knows...

That said, if they simply raised the current MCAP, would you be happy to fork out another 27p or whatever per share for a company with the order book and liquidity to make it happen in place? So 54p for a share in that company sounds decent enough and if you don't have the shares now, you don't get the opportunity. (Bearing in mind this all started from a much higher SP).

I think it will be a mute update really. Probably chugging along to what they have already stated. It's really a flip of a coin how the market reacts to that. They should have the cash to do some more buyback too. If's it's still in the 320's I'd expect a re-rate upwards. However I think this move has been made by a few lingering shorts that want to clear down before the results ... we should see if this gets into the 330's this afternoon.

Not really for this board but it was ranging 340-370 which was already low. Since CTO exercised options and the brief Lynch sell off it has been brought down by low volume. Very much like a lot of tickers right now. Maybe I have it completely wrong but low 320s just looked like it was dragged down in the hope they can buy back a lot more shares from 'relief' sellers on the way back up. Dark truly is a strange one.

Looks like SYNT now being dragged by low volume as well. Sold out of CPI on the RBC downgrade with a view to buying back in but might well use the money on this one. Think it has better prospects frankly!

Well no-one's picking up on it being nothing but an investment so maybe that's all it is after all. Is the period over in terms of the takeover code as there's been no 8.5 from Shore today either?

Yep ... who knows why Lancashire seems to be the hub ... suppose it goes back to Brightstar and the breakouts from network carriers like SHP who got into the used mobile game.

Could well be an interesting week as that move will generate trade press interest.

Mission labs was the smartagent thing. Didn't know they'd sold it. Interesting person to step in and lead an MBO ... MMAG could use his techie wizardry/know how.

Hedge ... I don't think there's much in Cannacord ... maybe they are simply not happy with direction of sale process and management expectations etc.

What's interesting is the 1m shares to Damian. So maybe he's heard an insurer is lurking ...? He's involved in the smartagent stuff so will be well connected. MMAG has the devices insurers love in terms of VAT margin consumer.

That's funny Walkietalkie ... DARK is where my money is! Got a feeling we won't be waiting till Friday though. Hopefully got it right as that one will sting if it goes the other way.

I haven't done anything this time around. I believe it will but right now just have capital tied up elsewhere.

That Shell business will be different. I also look at likes of Croda / BASF / Elementis just because for some reason it doesn't matter in which sector they operate, the chemicals industry seems to be fairly representative across the board. SYNT are set up ok for a longer demand trough in my opinion so will simply take a little longer for margin/cash generation to re-appear and SP to grow.

Hedge ... not sure what you are going on about in terms of the free float. Just take a look at the 8.3 forms and it will give you the picture. Just the reductions from BT's pull away put 8% into the free float alone between premier, shroeders and Cannacord.

Directors/employees at 14.5%

Over 1% holders amounts to about 43% so how do you get to a 5% free float.

I'm all for being positive as have rather a nice holding on these but the reality is the money walked away after the BT thing and If Cannacord are still dropping then there's no buyer closing in just yet.

It may be months away, but this will come good and into the 20's.