Member Info for joseywales

To put some perspective on this, between the asset company and express holdings, 7% of the stock has been acquired in recent weeks without an RNS on the other side showing any significant reduction from a key holder. Then at some point Systematica need to clear their 1% plus all the non-notifiables. Outlook even in the short term finally looks rather good. Well overdue!

Just watch the spread and trades. Guessing, but I don't think it's an institution dumping. Its a flush out. That said, I'd like it to have another run into the 330's again.

Personally I gave up on holding long on this share a long time ago. Nice to dip into when it gets a bit hammered and that's about it. Someone should buy it and put it on the US exchange ... listing on the UK exchange was the biggest mistake.

It's defies logic but it's simply a 'fear ' attack and flushes out the weaker holders. A 'seller' is a little more structured and a steady decline. When your CTO in a software company sells their shares you'd expect it to be managed a little better in terms of communication.

I expect a lot of stop losses were triggered this morning. I was a brutal drop. The same kind of thing happened when Poppy sold.

It's all guesswork messing around like this and don't be fooled by those who treat it otherwise.

Wow that was fast, have a shower and it's gone up 12p!

I don't see a pullback. I think some have sold waiting to buy back in but I think this time it will not present itself. Whilst someone is at play trying to keep it down, this seems to have a little more attention now.

Just an attack on the director sell. Probably needed a day to co-ordinate. Started buying in tranches from 345 as believe this will simply be back in the mid to high 300s in a few weeks if not sooner. Just becoming too predictable with their activity now across multiple tickers so imagine they will change plays soon.

Well there's a lot of thrush on these boards.

Relating to the share, once Cannacord stop clearing out along with others who built positions speculatively for a bid, I think this will re-rate pretty quickly in the new year.

The thing with all secondary market business is that at some point they get ahead of themselves believing in huge scalability and the like. They load up on overheads and margin quickly diminishes as more enter the space which is generally low cost entry business. So sticky elements are frictionless interaction which captures the product and strong sales channels across the spectrum of devices leveraging demographic 'hotspots' for certain lines.

So, have a significant overhead reduction plan in place and seek strategic partnerships to support the flow of outbound devices, reducing the in-house cost of managing consumer driven solutions which are high cost/maintenance and don't seem to be delivering on the bottom line.

The business just needs to take a slice of humble pie and focus on bottom line, not being the biggest and 'baddest' out there.

Tackle that corporate market ... go work with Restore's asset management arm which seems to be struggling with direction from outside looking in.

Shorts aren’t doing much at all at the moment. Don’t be surprised if they dump a load in here as PI surge weakens. A lot of stop losses to be triggered.

The shorters have played a good game here. I’m sure they will try and have the news feeds focus on the ebit loss.

Within covenant and guarantees put in place was what I considered to be the gamble here. Can buy the kids some socks for Xmas now.

Don't see it being a problem. Does not sound like there's a suitor and the market is reacting solely to that. It continues to be a great opportunity to buy as the SP slides. Whilst I might not believe the £50m hopers, this will climb back to mid teens and I'd anticipate a good start to 2024 for them. Just needs some patience into the new year.

I'm just gloom and doom with this share. Have them just tucked away and try not to think too much about them now. I doubt they can be much cheaper but I fully expect this to be back in the 60's again without news in the New Year. It's either the most overlooked share or we are all wrong and serious buyers have stayed away for good reason.

I was rather hoping for this to be taken private but probably wishful thinking. Probably left money on the table but sold out on Friday.

Negotiating down with suppliers is one thing but since many are small businesses and likely insure credit, I consider that the next risk faced. They don’t have much in the tank if credit insurance limits are reduced.

Bold call to move the range up. I'm going to guess the other way and say we will see the 160's again. I just don't think there's enough participation in the share and scheduled news is quite a way off. So my thinking is this only rises sustainably (in the near term) on a general flow of money into equities again ... and more precisely the UK exchange!

Probably nice prey for low level shorting and MM play for a while...and remember they will know how many shares are sat in retail at any one time.

All guesswork but at least its something to do until we hear from the company itself.

@Mikey279 - 6 times at best on a debt free basis. VC would go for 4 and hammer the intangibles on top of that. Not enough clearly defined annual recurring revenue. It's more like a trading house trying to punch out the numbers.

When it comes to the rental/lease business, going to corporate direct is pointless. You'll jet get SME and not enough scale. It's the network of mobility providers and a model which works for them and you. They already have the lease partner finance in play but the issue is MMAG need to be able to provide repair/warranty support as well ... so going to an Ingram/Anovo for that product makes more sense.

Of course, you then have the VAT margin to consider so sending consumer sourced devices to a business might not work....

Whatever way, 25p seems fair for this ticker. Think they should sell up soon though.

HedgeHog ... Recommerce category is flogged to death. It's quite well known to those around it that if Blockbuster Video went full tilt down that road rather than 'dabbling' they'd still be around (as too if they bought Netflix for$50m when it was on the table)!! My point is it's not new so don't present it as something that's just sprung up as the new hot potato.

The issue with recommerce is structuring a business and strategic direction which delivers sustainable growth, opportunity and shareholder return (not simply capital return). It's the conundrum and why so many (very successful) recomm business end up defined as 'lifestyle' business. You seem like you might know you're way around the industry so then you will also be more than aware of the struggles equity houses have had with such entities and that includes EcoATM.

We are in agreement that MMAG has a sustainable model. However this game is all about the supply and I personally suspect that the cost of capture has escalated significantly for MMAG. In retail propositions from CEX through to Voda, set the price matrix for what MMAG must pay consumers for devices and their cost to collect, process, re-deploy might well be significantly lower. Take a look what those 'retail' guys out of Finland are now pushing through Europe ... supply is their issue and a strategic partnership/merger type deal with them would not be a bad call. I forget the name of the company right now.

You mentioned Backmarket ... they are a platform and those IT wunderkinds basically set up from a room what is a truly investable, sustainable sales platform. They don't go buying MMAG and the like ... they just take their slice of the pie without touching the product.

They said about cash outflows in h2 pretty much matching inflows of h1. So not bleeding cash and certainly not doomed for failure. However no significantly positive fcf till 2025 and even then around the 50m mark.

So my read is company stable but in no position to return value to shareholders just yet.

No mention of non cash write-downs against disposals …

Apollo failed with WG. .... so why would they not be sniffing around this one if they want such a company in their portfolio?

It'll go where the powers that be want it to until we get some positive news flow from the company. That said, most companies with debt have been arbitrarily sold last two days ... inflation data week blues I imagine. I guess the Chinese deflation marker did not help things much either.

Well done LOTM, hopefully that'll jump to the good for you by the end of the week.

The Regen repair business was just repair ... no trade-in. They supported some end of lease stuff but I think that was gate fee and triage revenue. Their non-mobile activity was the most attractive part.

Eco-ATM is a different animal. In the US it was crazy numbers but mostly low end. No idea how the Sainsbury's roll out went or shopping centres in the UK/EU.

I don't think Eco would be an acquirer. Assurion would be more likely and then of course there's EcoAsia if anything is left in the tank there.

Very leftfield but actually when they get their cash influx from the Greek sale, the CPW arm of Curry's still has a great capacity for trade-in, repair, triage. They are in a unique position to really take a lead into the asset cycle and re-deployment at consumer level. At the moment I think they still just auction out their product.