Member Info for joseywales

Agree some funny trades going on. It looks like it's being taken down in tranches on pretty low £ volume. I set up an order last night at 13.20 and got none this morning. I'm sure we will eventually get an RNS but can't see how any holder would want to be selling off into the 11s/12s. Maybe its just a dumping to actually make a purchase play to increase holding. Anyways, happy with the lot I have got so far and will see if that 13.20 appears later.

I'd agree with what you say on gloomy outlook short term. However, closer to the end of that cycle than beginning now. The issue on this is simply larger holders needing (or wanting) to sell off chunks of holdings. Maybe GSA got wind of a sizeable sell order going into the brokers and we'll just have to wait and see where that bottoms out (if it has not already).

When it comes to the company itself, hopefully it will get sold off in time .... it's just a minnow in a big pond really. It's just never going to be a scaled business with margin and profitability which is sustainable in the long term. It's just an industry where scaled players can navigate the volatility a bit better.

IQE is an innovator ... an R&D department (if you will) for a large global player who could snatch them up for £250-300m.

I think plenty are still licking their wounds since the RI so future outlook is kind of imbalanced as a result.

If SYNT achieve the 150m level of EBITDA with debt reduction to the 5-600m level then the covenant talk is just frustration. In my opinion when you look at what other companies are saying in the sector, things are still not good so that EBITDA might not be hit so there is some exposure to risk in short term and the SP having another drop on news. That said as demand returns and an EBITDA level of 250m becomes more achievable, then divi's can come back on the table. No reason this cannot happen in 2024 with improvement weighted to H2.

Can they hit 400m EBITDA longer term? ... that seems a stretch right now.

I think this one could become very interesting. Keen to see how the Q3 results pan out this week. Whilst debt is a lot more costly, this really does look like another one that's been brutally hammered with little regard to their business model and growth.

It’s not MMs. Shedload of US money leaving the exchange delivering on promises of the horrific October forecast. Happening across plenty of tickers. Volume has cooled so hopefully this decline does not roll into next week and worsen.

JG … nothings happened. Just like the drop to 54p last week over at MCG. Nice opportunity to top up…hopefully!

No debt, sustainable revenue model, divi.

The drop in fees just aligns to asset management industry right now. Changes as cash flows back into sector but that’s a while away. Always interesting to see institutional flow increase…they are always first out, first in.

888 had different challenges and it's RSI got to something like 16. Been keeping an eye on it again and was tempted by the 70's but pathway of regulation is real threat the long term profitability now.

Not sure what the RSI is one this. However, imagine there might simply be some forced sellers having to flush shares away now they can't be held in divi funds and soon, the FTSE250 trackers. I'm sure it will regain some of that 30% plus drop in the near term.

JG, for the reasons you stated I agree. However, to not have some kind of market response to this SP begs the question what is going on?

I grabbed more at 56p today but the thing chewing away at me is why are the big players not getting tucked into this?

From time to time the market gets it wrong, but it doesn't get it this wrong.

JG, back to seriousness, I thought an RI was not going to happen at SYNT for a few reasons and one was the SP would not allow them. Now, they got about 75% of the marketcap (based on the 60p SP).

Now, MCG need more than 276m to make any sort of dent. What you'd be talking about is complete obliteration of current shares to get say 800m. You'd also be going to market for 1.30 per share!

Genghis, I'd work it out yourself. I think 12p was the lowest I saw on here based on an Arriva comparison as percentage of revenue ... because apparently that's how things are best analysed now. Thank the heavens in my day we sold our companies a little differently.

How's bed bug sniffer dog's not a winner. I bet Norway would rather have them than the huge reserves of lithium they found a while back to be mined.

That would make my day if Rentokil actually did an RNS/Newsfeed specifically about K9 Bed Bug Hunters. In fact they should sell the TV rights for one of those 'reality' shows and get that 19% bouncing back...

Mavsfw ... just take a look at Jupiter the other day. Nothing unsurprising and no change in management expectations around commercials. 1bn outflow of retail AUM and something like a 12% drop on SP. Frankly the market does not like updates short of bumper guidance upgrades!

What is it now, some 35% type drop in a week. I don't think David Brent could manage that, so credit where credit's due to the management team. Quite an achievement in turning this from a FTSE250 'banker' into comparisons with CPI and THG!

Pointless looking at that Arriva deal unless selling WM. Also no real benefit for i-squared aside from the WM business. Can't see how they can possibly be a potential suitor for the whole of MCG which would be almost double. Also they they raised £15bn into a fund last year and MCG at 2.4bn min, would over-expose that fund now with Arriva deal going through.

Horis M ... I was writing my diatribe when yours came in ... we are in agreement with that 900m debt free figure. I have a 1.5bn total debt figure whereas you are using net debt I guess.

Well if you low ball this and say 6 x EBITDA you're talking about 2.4bn. Stripping the debt out leaves you something like 150p and that's not including cash in hand and some other bits and bobs to be factored in.

Now we are just retail investors ... so what is it that funds don't like about this which is scaring them off from piling in? At the very least you'd expect a jump back to the 80p kind of levels.

Now whilst we know GLG are good at their game and will exit their short effectively, someone's behind it selling at these levels.

I always wonder about the counter party to that JP Morgan Cash Settled Equity Swap and how that might be used as a hedge (just to mitigate loss if it fails) to actively manage some volume in this to drive price down for a low ball offer of that 150 type mark.

I don't think it would ever get past the Cosmen's unless there's a backend deal around ALSA for them. However, having just seen that KCT deal recommended and surprised how the SP alone had not gone past my £1 target previously ... these things can happen and leave long term holders who have not sold/bought on news within the share to lose out significantly. It's also happening with a few other companies in similar sector on other exchanges ... low ball considerations which would have been completely laughed at previously. Funds invested in KCT also had plenty of time and opportunity to average down with the fluctuations in that share too.

Now it could well be the US sale is more a mechanism to head a low ball takeover off and offers have already been made which did not pass the need to RNS but have spooked the Cosmen's to push the BOD into some action. They'd also have some cash to do a small buyback as well with the divi trashed.

Anyway, that's my conspiracy theory over with ... will we know in the coming months but for now lament the fact you can but a share in this company for the price of a Mars bar!

Yes I am sure Candid. Whole episode has been a mess and over complicated due to the size of RI to market cap.

I was not a holder in Eastman days so do not have a clear understanding of the necessity or desire. Ambition sometimes needs to be tempered and now a focus on core basics and a plan to deleverage beyond this RI should straighten this company out.

Yes I am sure Candid. Whole episode has been a mess and over complicated due to the size of RI to market cap. I personally have not been a holder in one so large.

I was not a holder in Eastman days so do not have a clear understandingg of the necessity or desire.

It just becomes a simple equation if they cannot make bus work profitable. Sell it or close it. Could be a quick MBO spin off I'd imagine and avoid the huge liabilities of closure.

Hi Candid, you are wrong about Jupiter. I think there's yet more confusion out their. Their 23% would have turned to something in the 7's when the RI shares were submitted. No-one is factoring this in when looking at shorts as well. So Gevoura are far from 2%+ in. They were that % of the 20m shares pre rights submission.

One thing I do agree with you on is that they need a debt reduction plan still. They have a history of not being able to use debt well so work on becoming a debt free entity.

Your right about PE groups Genghis. You have also hit on a problem for Mobico and how they present themselves.

The company wants to be an all in one mobility provider on a global scale. However, what they are is a holding company for various different companies in that sector. Selling in parts is where the value is.

Win it, build it, sell it and close the stuff which does not work and frankly this would put Mobico into the 'end game'.

ALSA is big enough to split out and list on the Spanish exchange ... why not do that for example.

The alternative is a group that can deliver constantly on shareholder return in form of divi and capital growth and they have simply failed in that. Trust is such a future has been completely eroded.