Member Info for joseywales

Might make a difference when algos catch up ... always a bit of a lag in daytime releases.

20% for European Express. Then there's 3% at Northern Express and 3% at Azvalor (if Azvalor is holding for Cosmens).

So they also have control of share through that Spanish entity as well. Do they need to be added to the equation under the 30% rule or can they be treated separately?

Why don't you sell up then? Clearly not for your appetite to hang around here?

Nothing you say is factually incorrect ... although reference to 'the team' might make one think you got fired from the company.

They know how ALSA performs as they have executive in there. They may not have so much exposure to the details of the other territories.

Also, the increase could well have been about ensuring they have an ability not to have the company taken from under them. Very hard for 75% support without them!

As a shareholder they are not there to behave in other shareholders' interests. If they don't like a bid, they can vote against it, simple as that. That alone could detract certain funds from investing.

JG, you are right, you cannot use the platform average. It's as ianfm says, but you can really over complicate it.

I'm looking at overall portfolio value not by ticker. Switching £12K across to FCH and adding to that holding just made more sense to me for the minute.

Now if I had a lot of cash in my portfolios I would not have sold since 54 must be close to bottom. I just think the short profile is going to keep it within a tight low range until the half years. Purely my opinion, but sticking this out since March 2023 was a mistake for me.

I'd also say that doing it this way means you never really get out at the top unless you view it as a dividend income hold.

Let's face it this is not about to have a big bounce anytime soon. I sold what I bought at 54p before close of play. There's simply others out there I expect to turn sooner and maybe I end up buying back in here in the 60s or in the low 50s. I still have plenty of holding that if by any event this took off, I'll still be smiling.

Paddyboy is right, only a Cosmen scenario changes things imminently and they can be the only buyer since they can block any other bidder. If they are after it, I'm sure they will have already floated a 120/130 type deal into current iis and got rebuffed. There is risk here ... you have one cash cow keeping the company afloat and if ALSA faces any challenges in the next 6 months, it quickly becomes a house of cards. Similarly if USA recovery stalls or becomes non-apparent.

Also, once the trading volume calms down, you will have the short algos running this for a while.

Put them through in smaller batches and you get top end of range. Earlier I got 60.4 when range was 59.8-60.4. 21K was something like high 61.

Calmed down now. Hopefully it will hold at the 60p level prior to another jump on actual news. Hopefully that's come before the AGM.

Yes, but catchups don't go at this pace.

A group bid makes sense for the larger PE houses and the like. The wider geographical exposure might be preferable to them.

Some news has clearly found it's way to people out there. No holding RNS today so it's not just Harwood.

As a result of the sharp incline, at some point, I'm pretty sure that management are compelled to issue an RNS if any material conversations are taking place. Can't really remember the rules.

Well I opted to hold despite not wanting to be dragged into this ticker for another 12 months. That said, I think the presentation and outlook pointed towards a much more positive H1. So maybe a few more months in the doldrums.

If the Cosmens were going to make a play for the business I honestly think you'd be seeing it now. I think they simply secured a nice little nest-egg. No-one can buy the company without their blessing so where-ever the SP goes, it can't really fall prey to anything hostile or activist.

I think the update plus the reality there is unlikely to be a rate drop in the summer./

Are there many other tickers out there trading at under 1xEBITDA? Genuine question as I think this is the only one on my watchlists these days.

Yes, I like the price action and have grabbed quite a lot more already. Not sure it will got sub 55 but that's my next purchase. Assume some just look at the headline and sell up. I was not going to hang around but actually it was a dour report with a lot of positive near term news. 2024 seems sandbagged operating profit wise ... not a bad idea considering track record!

Well, they are not good but I get what you mean. There are some chinks of light in there.

The issue around the US sale is that no-one is buying on forward outlook right now. The post covid world and IRs have put a stop to that to a great degree and totally within PE environment. So in essence, any sale would need to be pushed back to 2025 on decent set of results out of the US.

In terms of SP this morning ... all low level trading dropping the SP so would expect this to climb. With no imminent threat to the business you would expect the short % to drop as well prior to half yearlys.

Yes, but the key takeaway is they have maintained FCF (albeit due to the higher revenues). The sale of the US business is no pre-requisite to anything and these results show the debt can be managed even in 'turnaround' stage as they continue to play catchup with the inflationary cost pressures. Really I expected a hit to FCF based on the news flow.

Well you can’t polish a poop!

Revenue is positive and free cash looks like they are not burning money.

Does not look like much has happened on US side and if anything sounds unconvincing.

Of course it can go lower. When that impairment is put into the accounts, it will impact net asset value. If that then ticks the right box in a fund metrics, they could reduce and that could easily swing below 50 then. Very unlikely, but best account for both directions.

Let's just hope they wanted the weekend to top and tail a few things and get news out there Monday alongside the results! Urgency and this management team do not go hand in hand so the announcement and quick release seem strange.