Member Info for joseywales

They are 100m but profitable (like MM they went crazy over Covid to the 150m level). Would not have cash on books for the transaction but the Swedes have money I expect.

Hedge, it's just about keeping your average low here. Worth taking a step back and re-evaluating where your end target should be. In my view you have no chance at 20p. Mobile has too many challenges outside of just the secondary market right now. Landscape is shifting a little.

10p+ works for me now and I don't have the scope to by much more under RNS ... will definitely start selling at 7+ again as I think this could go on for some time.

I'd agree, no third party buys this really. The whole takeover period game has been a farce. Current management and a consortium will take it private in my view. No better time to do it with those results.

Personally I think the clothing will be a disaster for them. Stick to what you know and all that.

Now more convinced they'll just take this private. The only blessing is they are not burning cash so in that regard not a bust scenario. Hopefully we will get a real sell off today.

Instant quote spread on this is a joke at the moment ... over 0.7 which seems fierce.

This seems to have been sold heavily over recent weeks to keep it down at this level (since Schroders and Norges increases). Is there a firm date for the interims in July at all?

I don't think it's mandatory and if an MBO or similar is going to happen I can't see us hearing anything but the minimum. Would imagine this gets routed again and another holding RNS suddenly appears. Still, all just a game and all that .. .ready to buy in the 5.5-6 window again!

Not sure where the 10m gain would be unless they already reserved against the US assets previously. It's wooden dollars anyway since the bottom line is 33m will come into the company less the transaction costs and tax on the 10m. Certainly another 25m could be pumped into buyback if they wanted to.

Personally I think this is 'OK' news, not great. I expect mngmt were also hoping to achieve more.

Would still take further buybacks as opposed to divi. Get the UK ship shape and pay divi out of those profits.

The way I read it is the 89m (at end FY23) of US assets will have to be written off. So there will be a book loss (just on the balance sheet adjustment) of 56m. Personally I think the 33m is not that great of a price...however that is the climate right now.

Hopefully 5th September will yield some very positive numbers so this can take the next step up into the £1+ territory. Imagine today will just be a nice 'blip' in the SP.

Oops ... 'an adequacy' ... there's me having a pop and clearly I fail basic GCSE English.

I think the vomit is still in my mouth. How he has the audacity to take it after the complete dogs breakfast he's made of the organisation is beyond comprehension. Still, he changed the group name to Mobico ... fantastic achievement and clearly demonstrates a adequacy far beyond the bar, that was clearly set at GCSE business studies level.

Any idea why the buyback purchasing stopped at 13.45 yesterday?

If 'an event' (and I was speaking in negative terms) took place then the board would have to issue an RNS. The reality is as you say, shorter plus maybe a seller. More are being bought than sold daily at the moment with large transfers at auction. So, if there is no increase in short reported today (for yesterday), I imagine there is a seller. It may well be as a result of the 250 dropout and the shorts knowing that, piled in.

At the same time, Systematica are way up on their short and may well want to cash in sub 50 you'd think.

The other thing to add is that there's been no RNS from any large holders running for the door. They had 163m cash at end of last year ... treading water against 2022. The Q1 update showed increased revenue which should be at the conversion rate they usually maintain....it's really quite baffling how the SP has now brought the MCAP down to 0.75 times EBITDA. It's almost behaving like some event has occurred and it's going to the wall.

It does look like the algos stopped on that RNS drop.

The shorting has done them a massive favour. They must have some confidence that the Cosmens are not going to make a play for the business.

JG, MW increased to 1.31%. Things could get even more brutal I imagine. Maybe the bidding season is not going so well in the US.

I don't think that average in MCG will be the end of the world. The US sale pony show should start in full force H2 so hopefully that will bring upside along with better business metrics in UK and US.

I took the view that a nigh on 5% drop in the 250/small caps from a 2 week high was worth buying what appears to be a lull/blip. Hopefully we don't get a continuation next week. Hate weeks where portfolio value drops by as much as it has!

SYNT has been dragged down on really low volumes ... maybe it will go further but one decent update should catapult it. I thought the May update was cautiously optimistic . It was careful not to over promise. Fully intend to add more on further drops and high on the list of tickers to buy (at this level) if I sell up any others in my portfolio.

I think the bottom line is they are treading water without burning cash just yet. There's also a track record of good cash conversion. When they get the businesses straight and delivering as they should, divis and buybacks would very quickly change this SPs trajectory. It's just a matter of when as the UK/USA have been a real anchor around the business's neck. The German debacle is pretty irrelevant in the whole thing really ... and it's quite likely they sandbagged the reserve which comes through as a balance sheet adjustment down the line if it's the case.

My main concern on the risk side was a de-listing. However, I think a quick dilution event afterwards would have to happen to address financing which should in theory put many holders off rolling into the private entity. Tough for them to get to 75% still. Also not sure that's a game Hargreaves would want to be associated with.

Hanson setting up the holding company is a good sign for sure.