Member Info for joseywales

We were promised an update before the formal results in July. Have been happy adding at this 50/51p 'trap' it has been in on no volume, since that holding increase. If they report that cash position in that £17m range (ahead of expectation).... what sort of bottom line are they likely to report for the financial year. Does it remain a bit fugly or will there be upside there too?

Here's an idea for you Diamond and tighten that seat belt ...

.... don't buy any!

Personally I think they played a fair game. Imagine it was some mid management level chat in BT that got quickly kicked aside. Made no sense.

In terms of trouble in this 'takeover period' that's a whole other issue and would say inexperience is the factor not negligence. Just have to hope the distraction has not impacted the business too severely and that management have stayed on the ball in terms of the day to day and not the pie in the sky!

I think Vardey hit the nail on the head. Ex-Owner driven emotional attachment to the business and losing the sight that since Covid, it's been a case of a death by 1000 cuts. The swings at ATM and rental have cost the business significantly and eroded it's value. Maybe there is something afoot to review the trajectory YTD but we are in the soft side of the year. Also, if there was any conversations happening there would have been leaks by now. So if they can't sell it ... what will they do is the question.

Well, net assets were 12m and intangible made up 12m. So if you have faith in the realisable value of intangible then it's crazy. Otherwise assets and liability are a wash.

So long as they've cut cost, focussed on cash generation and maybe some more margin in the US ... it should not be so bad. This nonsense in terms of staying in the 'takeover period' is a joke though.

You'd hope for some update at the AGM or at least some tougher questions which the board cannot hide from.

Well it doesn't take too much to sent this SP downwards. Was joking about the 4 or 5p but maybe it will arrive.

GMHK, I've reduced MCG yet again today. It's a painful one and there's plenty of scope for further trouble down the road. Like you say, a potential exit from the 250 is likely why the shorts increased. Big problem when it's shares are so heavily ii owned.

For SYNT, the trading update has to be nothing worse than already stated. Left too soon but I'd do exactly the same again simply because there remained insufficient commercial stats to back up and sustain the current SP.

I hope you're wrong with OCDO as I bought more today. Had been waiting for 330's but bought at 343. Just felt the shorts were struggling to bring it down further despite adding. You have to think 10% plus will be short volume there now. Crazy how OCDO goes through these ebbs and flows. Whilst you might never catch the bottom, this seems to provide 2 or 3 opportunities a year.

Keeping an eye on FRES again if it goes sub 500.

So I can't remember the exact numbers but it was something like £165m unrestricted cash. Current SP is about x1.5 that. So when you think of the US exit to come and a reduction in issued shares through buyback, £1 is very conservative. Once US exit complete you now have a 'profitable' business ... so 20m AEBITA for 23 and in theory growing. If you just look at a very low 6x, you are talking about 285m. That's without any outcome from the US business and growth in UK profitability...I think Flexiplay is a good play! Hearing enough about it.

I think you're £1.50 is very fair and if a company wants to pick up the business you'd think that's where they'd need to be. Even then, management might feel confident enough to bat it away and I can't say I'd blame them.

Whilst I love the trajectory this is on and clearly it will eventually get over 100 ... a 250 target seems mighty ambitious for a share you could buy for as low as for 26p before they came out with buyback and US exit.

Hi Lotm. I stopped trading PFC a while back fortunately. After the penultimate news I stayed well clear. That one’s going to leave retail investors high and dry I imagine.

I’m not opening up on any new companies at the moment.

In my mind SYNT has pretty much doubled on ‘tame’ news which has not yet indicated a pathway back to cash generation and shareholder returns

That said the 230 to 260 window within a week has got my attention.

I did LOTM but to be honest chose not to, I have enough risk with MMAG in low cap and like GMHK says, I have WINE as a project too. Still in FCH despite its recent jump … I believe it’s a £1 plus. Just like GMHK I have MCG and Ocado. MCG owes me and regret getting involved with it really. Also in others like WOSG / VANQ but I think they may take some time to turn.

My concern about AIM as well as other small caps is delisting now. I think that situation is going to get a hell of a lot worse.

Still not in SYNT again yet. Regret not grabbing a few on that 230 drop.

Yep well those boys are on the vino from open. I just waited till end of play. Seriously though, if the Cosmens want this business they (and advisors) will review every trick in the book to minimise their outlay.

Rates will not go up. However, there’s rethinking in terms of when reductions will start and that thinking seems to have clearly moved to some time beyond summer.

He just averaged down that’s all. Sub 15p exit looks great right now!! Get it lower that’s what I say. At 4 or 5p I’ll be putting an RNS in!

Well is can be said of a lot of companies. All a matter of which ones will turn the corner and fly and those that will corner with the grace and pace of an oil tanker.

Anyway, been looking at shorts across the board and I’d say MW are viewing debt size and risk against a rate environment which will be higher for longer. Much more relaxed on that front as feared it could be around RIs down the road which I’d say is the only (and slight) risk to this ticker.

I have no idea of the rules around such but if I was the Cosmens, I’d be pushing for a highly dilutive RI which you’d underwrite. Sort of like running a stealth mode share capture! Would flush out any retail who can’t double down.

Saying it's small is la la land. You have to measure the short by the free float that's not sat with ii's. With Cosmens eating into what MS released to a large degree, the balance sat in retail and the like is actually very small. So 2% short here is a big deal and they have enough shares to put through the algos to eclipse the usual daily trading this runs at. It's why it's such a big problem when there's no divi, no buyback and ultimately nothing in sight near term to push this back over £1.

The director buy means zip at that level ... in fact since he's counsel it means there's no chatter Cosmen wise within the company yet.

Personally I think the climb will slow now we are getting over year highs. They’ll simply start finding more sellers. If the US exit delivers some £m, then I imagine that will be the catalyst for £1.

The bit I don’t get is why on earth would shorts increase into a major holder increasing. The only reason you’d do that is if you know for fact they will stop and have no intention of a takeover?

I would not say I'm cheerleading this one. I've offered reasonably balanced opinion in my posts but yes, for me its a buy. Biggest risk is de-listing but I can't see where the 75% would come from. For you its .... well nothing because you are not invested and you're not short. Hmmm. You only post on MMAG so do you actually invest al all?

You're right, no-one officially gets fired from any business any more. We use settlement agreements.

I think that is the case for an MBO scenario ... not sure outside of that. However, that's the 120 mark now which would seem about right for a lowball number. I imagine they'd need a solution around the debt structure as the smart play would be to leave it in the business and just buy the shares. Hell of a thing to work out.

Another point to note ... they'll only need to make an offer that appeases under 50% of the holders now and that only gets smaller with every 1% they add up to 30. Maybe May/June is the endgame for this.