Member Info for joseywales

Should also add that in relation to Hargreaves, in having him, it could well sort out the issue they would have in maintaining financing post MBO. The revolving facility they have would likely reduce greatly if not completely as they take the business private...these high net worth individuals can establish a mezzanine type facility against which I think there are various tax benefits on the return.

My opinion is they are building a consortium of investors to support an MBO. As yet, no-one's name has appeared that would easily replace Oliver and considering it's highly likely management actually want the 50p plus value, an MBO and sale in 3-5 years would be a smart play if you believe in the business. It blows the idea of 25/30p and the like out the water. By carrying on talks they can say they had 18p or the like on the table but consider their MBO at 20p, better value for shareholders ... no-one actually knows but I'm happy to play the guessing game. I also think it will be lower than 20p ... more like 16-18.

I've joined the fray again and bought a few at 2.69. Probably ends up going much lower now but hey-ho.

This drive down has happened to a lot of small caps GMHK. Someone pointed it out and I went through my watchlist and it's creating potential opportunities in several companies. IT's not even debt based as JUP, VANQ and even FCH are having blips ... I've opted for SYNT, JUP and IQE for purchases this morning.

Sentiment is clearly low and subdued further by Fed.

Seen exactly what you say in the small caps space. Not looked in detail but fancy it's where some debt is held in USD. It's more than just a handful that have been impacted. Creates some nice opportunities but like always, difficult to know where the bottom might be. Now this got past the 50p, low 40s might be a reality.

Just hope end of July finally yields some more positive outlook.

The shorts must be very confident that the Cosmens won't be making a play for this.

I did buy Ocado Paddyboy. It's stuck in a tight range of late but with 6.2% short and already hammered to the 350's, I see it as an opportunity. Thing is, a significant part of the value is tied in proprietary tech and it simply never gets realised. Big difference to MCG.

I don't think the shorts are attacking/game playing here. You have no communication from management, a debt pile with a USA solution which is not forthcoming and large holder staving off any idea of being acquired. I bought back in thinking 53p was decent, bought again at 51 and now at low 48s. Glutton for punishment.

Funny how 4m pops up when the trading volume has been nowhere near that of late. Does the FCA track some of these disclosures and timings?

In 2020 I looked at the clothing game. If you go high end designer route it's big. Vesitaire collective are obviously the Backmarket of that space but plenty of longtime success businesses like Pandora's in Knightsbridge do very well. Again, lifestyle businesses.

Needs to be high end fashion since many well known brands simply license their brand and companies go off creating their own clothing with the brandowners permission to use their logo. So needs to be Vuitton, Chanel, Burberry and all that.

This guy buying in might be the start of MBO ... see if we get a few more high net worth chucking some money in to get a healthy consortium percentage...

Fear of RI and nothing from company to support anything else. Can’t sell US…no free cash for buyback/divi…disappointing mess supported only by success of ALSA. Just needs a change in the narrative.

GMHK, I really hope this works for you.

My take on SYNT is a buy at 250 and very likely several tranches on the way down, I don’t need to be right so hope I’m wrong. It would simply be white noise on route to 400 plus in my opinion. I just think the shorts have a playground until next update in terms of remaining net debt reduction and sustainable cash generation from ops. You also have a major shareholding that mitigates some big funds from taking sizeable positions.

Remain quite heavy in Fch having taken some profit at 89. Loaded more into DWL at 68, Also convinced WIne are already batting off at 90p so increased at 61 today.

OCDO is tricky. Increased core so sub 368 there but traded a lot to zero. Monday/Tuesday could be crazy days.

I added more mcg. Christ knows what that ticker owes me now. I acknowledge the RI risk but management lose their jobs then. Any positive cashfliw generation will be sent shareholders way I reckon. Bizaarely it’s RI or buyback!! At no point has the debt been unmanageable,

Yes, watch Millenium. They have increased across multiple tickers. The algo will be leading them so best to find out if the have a change in lead IT/ fund management. They are following rather than leading so might well have a problem themselves. 54p was a gift today…but then at 48p I’ll be thinking when will I grab at the bottom!!!

Well I was wrong again GMHK ... should have bought this at 288 or whatever it was and not MCG!! I think MCG is higher risk than SYNT but potentially returns 2-3 times from where it is now. Flipside is they go for RI!

OCDO is an odd one. 8% short now, so close to Petrofac in that respect. The 340-370 run has been a nice earner but you are not alone in the view it could reach new lows. My core holding is at 368 so I pray you are wrong.

US stocks are tricky ... really stick to what I know and even then, valuations on like of Snowflake, Crowdstrike, OCta etc ... I just don't get.

Started on DWL after the hammering they got. Did well on MRO and the management in DWL are same.

Hope SYNT goes in the trajectory you need it to. I very much doubt I'll be back into it but 400 should in theory come soon ... from memory that would be about 90p in old 'pre-RI' speak?

We are not going back to the type of rates we had anytime soon. Cost of debt in the mid term is uncertain and for sure rates will drop but we simply don't know by how much. More companies will go the RI route if it's available to them. At the end of the day I am sure National Grid could have gone out for financing against the £8bn they wanted (and may well have done prior to this mess we find ourselves in). I know it's multiple factors but we are paying for all that free money we gave away during Covid and our governments (not just UK) are racking up debts which can only be reduced by issuing more money ultimately.

That's not really MCGs problem though ... we are simply entering a period where return on debt is so important. MCG are not too flash on that right now, and the promising presentation of July last year has fizzled into a nonsense.

I don't think the shorts are playing...I think they are adding again. I imagine they are shorting based on an assumption that if there is a failure to sell and realise the cash from US to reduce debt, a raise could be on the cards. I don't think they are playing. More a genuine concern about managements ability to turn the ship.

There's also the fact it's currently a house of cards, completely reliant on ALSA maintaining its profit and cash generation.

The sale of that US business is critical ... and it seems a long way off.

GMHK, I think it's an arbitrary thing for any companies with a certain debt profile. MCG also dropped 20% along same sort of timeline. I've bought them over this one this morning. Just feel this could go like that drop from the 170-190 window to 120-130 (prior to results/update).

The markets on your side Hedge. Did not see it myself so that reduction will cost me a few K. I guess neutral news and no profit warning was good enough for people to re-invest or climb onboard.

I think the sustained increases from usual names each day will add fuel to the debate in terms of moving from UK to US listing. Obviously shorting still happens but I doubt this kind of activity (which has gone on form quite a few cycles now), would go untouched by the SEC. The FCA has no teeth.

The problem is they have not eaten at some of the net debt Hedge. That needed to be a priority to increase perceived value here. So for me it's a reduction in holding with a target to buy again at sub 5.50. I still think they are far from failure but on the flipside what they are trying to do in terms of shoring things up is a bit lame.

I think they should have shut/sold the US op entirely.

Hedge, it's not good in my opinion.

Net debt has not dropped despite cost cutting/streamlining.

Business is 'broadly in line' ... if it was even marginally better than expected they'd have said 'higher end' of expectation.

Importing product from the US is a business grappling to eek the last bit of margin out a product.

Multiple interest chats likely to be with insurers and maybe a couple of channel sellers like Eurostar/New World etc ... waste of time.

New product categories will be more investment, stock etc.

What little has been said screams of a management team trying to fuddle through how to turn the ship.

Suddenly this share price is at the level it should be and frankly should be taken lower to reflect the risk.

Well that update is a load of BS really. Not bust, not sold…so hold?

Well MKS results are strong. When it comes to OCDO, just commentary on commitment, challenges and recent strong turnaround on volume/rev on MKS product. Maybe the devil is further down in the detail, but nothing jumped out as newly ‘negative’.