Member Info for joseywales

There's clearly value there JG. That 140 offer isn't in the distant past. Just a matter of guessing what game is at play now and how long it will play out for. Alternatively 65p does not seem like a bad price to tie up some capital for a few months.

Not sure what their guidance was for 24. In 23 they were 300m EBITDA with a plan to grow EBITDA margin by 1% a year. Would guess that's out the window and this year the EBITDA will end up at the mid to high 200s. So this is trading at about 1xEBITDA currently.

Debt level is similar to MCG with cash conversion similar ... but higher EBITDA % right now and no individual shareholder with enough clout to block a takeover.

I think now it's in the 60s, it's probably best to expect the worst in terms of low 60s before a recovery. There's either a seller or the shorts have hold of this. Sticking to plan to simply keep buying tranches down to 60p and accept the red number could get ugly over coming week or two. Shame as a fast bounce would have been a nice end to the month!

I'd also add here (and its the concerning part) that management don't care about the SP. They easily have the cash/resource to put 20-25m into a buyback to bolster it. They genuinely seem more focussed to delivering the business turnaround objectives ... slowly!

Hi Walkitalkie, been a minute!

You over at VANQ in the 40's at all as well? I also dipped back into IQE on that tech sell off.

Not seen value here for a while but the reaction to the update clearly has spurred a couple of funds to play some games and maybe some retail shorting still to close. Keeps testing that 70p so imagine at some point next week it might buckle possibly...or else back to the mid 70s and up.

Roulette sums up anything on the UK exchange! I'd say if you bought at 70/71p it's more like splitting a couple of aces.

I think it really depends on whether they maintain the promise to deliver divi's still. What they have mentioned is all non-cash impact stuff on the whole. Still in a couple of weeks we will hear but it seems like management are trying to deliver an all at once dump of negative/risk issues so the bounce is strong later in the year/early next. Imagine this will waddle around in the late 40s / early 50s for some time.

Well I'd buy it on the basis it's getting oversold again and within weeks we'll be in 80p plus territory. Will be no surprise if retail players will close out before end of play today. Will climb back over 80p in a month or so and maybe more as the chance to buy at a 'lowest ebb' presents itself again.

Company definitely has challenges and is no long term hold for me, but has done well historically delivering short term opportunities. One thing to consider is that the team that was batted away last time by management will be back for another round and may make it a little more hostile, if need be. Just need support of one or two larger holders willing to exit at that 1.50 mark or whatever it was.

The UT trades caught my eye too. Probably just trade gossip or you'd see a hell of a lot more trades. Can't get an instant quote for any decent volume right now.

That’s pretty leftfield thinking. Schroeders won’t be in for a quick win. That 33m could be a 10c special divi or a split between divi and increased buy back. This half will likely show a loss so what they can do it ‘defend’ the SP. The FY they should be back in profit, divi paying and a realistic income investment for funds.

What you refer to is not all free cash…some is for compliance.

I wish they’d stop buying back so many and let the price deflate. Want them buying back as much as possible with that 25m.

Maybe they all knew Shroeders had finished buying!

I’m pretty sure that if you are in conversations under the takeover code, any change in your holding has to be declared alongside the fact that you are in conversation around a takeover. Also if you had access to the ‘deck’ there’s no chance you’re allowed to load up.

Can't help but think they are defending against something. The comment about PBT margins of more than 15% probably got some attention.

Whilst I don't think things will happen before day 250 ... I think they will come September before entering Q4. If it's an MBO they want to get in at the worst 'climate' and not when falling rates become a reality and reports of increased consumer confidence start appearing.

I also think that if it is an MBO and they drag it out too long, holders who are not happy with the end price exit might have recourse to a legal challenge against the directors claiming that the officers of the company were not running the company to it's best interests during the 'takeover code' period.

Well with the last divi being 1p, the interim here only needs to be 0.5 if that. I think that's less than £1.5m. Whilst they are 'pressed', if they could put something like £10m into a buyback, that's all it would take to flush the remaining shorts and re-rate somewhat.

That said, no-one seems to be swooping in to take a chunk at this level.

Shorts are just below 0.50, it's just the need to disclose has disappeared. Whilst the pension fund reduced, would say another added to the pool to keep the price where it is. Just need patience as if they report what they have been saying in August, you'd hope this would right itself after the summer and if they stay on track then hopefully this might double over the next 12 months.

Whilst they committed to divi's maybe doing a buyback might be better to avoid any lowball offers/hostile type activity.

I've got to be honest, I'm missing the notional debt element. I assume the c.8m relates to rental assets in field less depreciation? Anyway we are still talking in multiples of where the SP is.

As for robswire ... in these businesses (at this stage) you follow the cash not the book. At the moment they are treading water with no intention of over-stretching again. Would say he's likely trying to swing trade this ticker ... good luck with that.

Yep we'd all like one of those businesses with less revenue and more profit!!

My simple take on (it if you were potential buyer for the business):

EBITDA seems to be stabilising so 7m seems a reasonable for the year and we know from a statutory perspective it gets decimated by impairments/depreciation. A 4-6 multiple would be 28-42 and right now in the climate we are in, 4 at best. Strip out the net debt and 15p per share would be the higher end you would consider, since you have to consider the weeds.

From a point of view of the seller, clearly you will be presenting a forward looking forecast and in particular one that delivers cash conversion on profitability. The issue is credibility in coming close to achieving this in a substantive manner. There is a flatline to the achievable margin since your core cost (tech devices) is wholly commoditised with very little scope for value add. The cost to capture is where savings which drop to the bottom line sit and I'd say on a consumer tech takeback programme alone, there is not much scope for improvement.

However, just like a consumer focussed reseller would look as average packsize as a key metric in their business ... MMAG needs to do the same and this is where diversification into other asset classes becomes important. They can then start looking at average 'household' recoveries per annum and 'participant' numbers. Create a dashboard equity houses get/understands.

The other more 'grey' area is the monetization of their opted in participants down the line. Not an area I'm overly familiar with. but getting to hear a lot about this and some wild values per opted in consumer.

Anyway there's a rambling ... but bottom line if you were a buyer I think range is 12-15 currently unless there's someone buying into the future. Management won't sell for that ... but reckon they'd buy at it.

What you say all makes sense Mike. Personally I think their revenue will continue to decline but what you will end up with is a business with stable margins and cash generation. Over-reaching has cost the company dearly.

You cannot completely dismiss the clothing opportunity since it is a model which works elsewhere and fits easily into the buy from consumer, flog it on ebay model. You can easily see a future where this stuff is sold into a network of designer 'thrift' shops.