Member Info for joseywales

GMHK ... that RNS from MCG was a kick in the goolies. Looks like it will be months till a re-rate happens there. Surprised what you say about WINE. After the run from the high 20s to the 60's, I did not think we'd see under 50p again.

In. Sold half of mine in the 27 as bought loads in the high 23s. I think it's ages till news comes still ... there was a minor upgrade from SocGen and not sure if that's kicked the algos into override.

No idea ... do you know what the LuM is in the US? Probably easiest to take that and build an assumption based upon x/million.

Someone seems to be selling into the buyback at the moment so once they finish, we should see a nice slow increase which will jump on announcement of US deal.

One thing after another! Sold a few chunks just in case this ends up in the 50s again. Such a mess.

I also think FRES has great potential. OCDO I have but will sell once they break through 500 . Never been in AML ... I love risk but that's been all over the shop for so long. I stay away from ASOS.

WOSG has also just got very interesting. Have bought a couple of tranches. Started on WINE again the other day also.

I'm as loaded as I'm comfortable with in MCG, JUP and THG. I still kept some FCH as the buyback and US sale could still catapult it some more. Strangely JUP is the one I think might be disappointing ... was expecting more traction by now.

MMAG is the 'outsider' for me.

Considering CURY again now the takeover buzz has cooled. Might see if it goes mid 50s again.

WT ... also bought DARK first thing this morning...that KKR news seems to have given it a clobbering for no huge reason.

Yes, being serious for a minute GMHK... Taking the EBITDA at 6 times and stripping out net debt, the SP is now at a far more sensible level. Roughly loosely 250 would be spot on. Guidance on a path to 200m+ EBITDA has not yet been provided and H1 update and results may become more pivotal. I don't see how this gets to 350 without further positive update from the company.

Whilst the outlook is one to be positive about, the path is still a rocky one. There are plenty out there which have stronger prospects of that sort of uplift in coming few months.

For clarity, I have no SYNT shares right now so my narrative is swayed to a pullback preference.

Hi WT ... I 'd not bother. Wigwammer has a history of digging people out. When not doing that, the comments generated are generally plagiarised or simply lack any substantive commercial acumen. Often piggy backs articulate, thought out commentary. I look at it as just another manifestation of the small person syndrome and a desperate attempt to find a relevance amongst peers.

Had to chuckle that the thrush subtext clearly went over WW's head...thought it would.

Was wondering when I was due another dose of thrush. My chat history is there for all to see. There will be something there where I talk about how futile it is to simply hold and hold and not trade within the ticker. I think Wigwammer the little petal, got a bit flustered and confused by it all and should probably just have invested in managed funds rather than try this out for him/herself.

On the sauce since 9 I’d say.

Roll on Wednesday. You don’t add that many shares to your holding without some relevant insight.

PK…obviously options make a difference but the CFDs should not really play into it at all really? The volatility is lacking to use CFD hedging?

Would not describe it as a price spike. It went down quite quickly from low 80s to high 60s on low volume. You have to think those short will want to be holding stock going into the results. In my opinion even chasing a quick win from the 60s…should not sell till it gets sticky below 80p. But who knows with this wretch!

If you look at the trading volumes, there's no manipulation. Lots simply sold on results once any kind of quick win was off the table. Turning 7.5m Ebitda into a 6m loss PBT (and cash churn reflecting that) is the sort of headline most would tend to run away from.

Get back to basics. Quit rental and cease any further ATM expansion. Management swung and missed. They need to focus on month on month cash generation and forget the rest of the noise. If they can't get the support for the MBO they should close the offer period too. Either they accept Eq will heavily dilute them on structure because of the state of affairs ... or get off the pot!

All that said, they could turn the ship very rapidly ... that's the beauty of secondary market business.

Hi GMHK. Yep MCG getting a little pounded. Not too concerned and will load more at 65 and 60p if it gets down to there. I'll probably have quite a lot going into results but only because it's been in that 55-90p range for so long now.

I'm still not convinced of a SYNT charge ... when RR. went it was a very different set of reasons/dynamics. Will keep watching and for me buying back in at sub 200 will be the initial target. Those broker targets are dependent on the company delivering to plan and a recovery in the chemicals sector ... I am confident both will come but I still feel shorts will engage once funds and the like tail off their re-investing.

I think if the results come out and they are as they've already indicated without more surprises, this could go over £1 very quickly. On the flipside, another surprise and we are in the 50s all talking about 2025...for those that remain.

I think they have to publish by the end of March to comply with rules don't they...so 28th March latest? I assume they could also let the results drop without notice?

I know GMHK ... it's just I don't think I've seen a ticker go like that on what was effectively nothing outside the update already provided. Whilst I felt the extension on covenant relaxation was important, to gain almost £1 in a couple of days seems too fast for a company that's not quite out the woods yet. That said ... regretting the miss on the 8% today!!

It's tough in fairness. I have taken the opportunity to buy way more than I had over the last couple of days and my average has plummeted. It's purely profit I've made elsewhere so I can risk it. However, if I was to look at the red number that still exists against MMAG long enough ... I'd get emotional too!! Just part of the process and just need to win more of them than you lose. Hopefully this turns to a win but we have to remember that failure is always 0!

Personally I think there is a chance you are right Hedge. By pumping some sales into the system, there is a slight chance that whoever it is could scoop up a significant % just taking the SP to say 11p. It really depends on what that free float in retail is. Also has to happen fast because of the 1% RNS rule we are under.

Bottomed out? I was thinking this could go to 60p next week. Think I just topped up too early.

The BOD are no good for shareholders. Their communication is weak at best and they have no interest/motivation to get the SP to any kind of 'sensible' level. They were slow on the US sale in that they were caught napping, failing to comprehend the interest rate rises. They are slow to sort out the UK bus business. They clearly gone a little blindly into the German Rail contract and managed to have negotiated something onerous when in fact German Rail needed them more than they needed german rail!!

What they have achieved is a change of group name and caved into unions giving what must have been one of the biggest % increases in the UK for a part of the business that makes no money anyway.

The thing is, their incompetence will not break the business. ALSA is still heavily Cosmen influenced and the USA is too far away for them for their stench to stick.

Any idea how many shares are in the 'available/retail' pool?

I just hope for the best and expect the worst with this one generally. I think Mr Market has priced in negative profit. It's the cash position I would be more interested in, and how that moves.

I view it like my comment on CPI results which I think you were on ... their substantial increase in their net debt basically means they are running non-profitable contracts...you can't invest in that. The decks are somewhat clearer with MCG but any increase in net debt would likely relate to the UK business and I've said all along they should exit the wretched bus game.

Not a single shareholder can be happy with this management team ... they really need to blow the doors off for a change.

Yes WT had XAAR before back when they were something like 40p during Covid and doubled rapidly. No idea where they are now. Really good business, IP protected and the type of industrial processes I can't imagine disappearing. In fact increasingly burdensome EU rules for marking product and the like probably help them.

I'm out of SYNT for now. I'll live with the regret of not holding a lot easier than not selling. Long time till we get any news again.