Member Info for joseywales

Patience that's all it needs.

The CFO purchase for me was an indicator that the implications of the cyber issue are behind them to a degree. I can't imagine he'd have stumped up if there was significant risk around regulatory fines or significantly more cost than that 25m already mentioned.

Just want to check my math. If you had 20K shares at 45p, the nil value rights would need to be trading at a 25% discount to the 1.97 for you to effectively break even?

This in on the basis of 20K at total of £9K becoming 1000 and 6000 nil value rights (for 1.97 if you choose to take them).

Whilst it suits me right now for everyone to think this is more debt, I really don't think it is. Every year they publish this prospectus since they started the euro medium term note. Right now there's no way they'd be getting 1.5bn even if they wanted it!! This is just a consolidated cap of all the bonds offered under different entities/currencies etc.

There's one of these every year. Assume it's like an annual report for bondholders.

I had not realised it was an 18 month bridge. That's plenty of time with the trajectory they are on.

Yes, paying interim divi only to do an RI down the line would probably a feet of mismanagement that would seat Frank Spencer at the helm of the company.

Look I am really just flagging the possibility which I absolutely thought irrelevant before. They are cash generative, but that EBITDA needs to really climb H2 - that 166m for H1 really is not cutting it. H2 profit is going to be so important to fuel market view and alleviate pressure.

Start getting to a run rate of 450-500m Ebitda off 3bn ... debt gets reduced, divi's paid. I think their target EBITDA % is higher than that so future really should be bright as we know.

Yes JG. They already have the bridge in place for that. That said, there has been no info on it being anything but a bridge. They'll need to work out another bond placement or close the bridge some other way as it will be a quite a premium I imagine. I can't quite remember how it all works but I think their SP/MCAP would need to be a lot higher for an effective bond issue.

Well Lordloads, I bought in case of any unexpected positives and bought again on the results. IQE has made me a lot of money over the years and I am sure this lull will do the same.

I use basketcase wrongly really. What they do scientifically is brilliant. They just don't know what to do with what they create, where to sell it and who to deal with. They are a necessary component to the tech hardware industry. Their market cap has no relation to their commercials. It should (and to a degree is) measured as a value to the industry it serves. It has been clobbered before and rose, I am sure it will do the same again.

On the flip side, the smartphone market has no real innovation. I like the play courting China/India players. Upgrade cycle times are only increasing in western Europe/US and carriers/OEMs have run out of marketing ammo to improve these hence the fact is £1K for flagship devices. IQE needs to succeed on the diversity play they are trying to make and yes, AI application will be a massive part.

That was certainly my thinking JG. I don't think we hear from management till late october/november now so the only thing to drive recovery in SP is some eating away at the inflation figure and a stop to rate rises. Maybe they will also confirm what they are doing with the 400m bridge as well.

I still think fear of RI is actually the biggie here over rates and it's a better option than selling off parts of the business. I know the counters to that and on the whole I agree. That said I want an RI here to accelerate the SP growth of this company. An RI for that 400m would mean doubling down but I think it would seriously accelerate the SP recovery into 2024 and take false debt concerns off the table. They could table a significant share buyback down the line in 2025 as well.

Nothing surprising in the results. All priced in really so was happy to by more just now. This company will likely always be a basketcase until brought into a larger entity. Just embrace it and don't hold long.

I'll double down if there's a big drop tomorrow. The demand cycle they are in, sucks. This share has done me well in in the past but I definitely don't consider it a long term hold type share. At some point it needs to be swallowed up by someone.

I think 90p will just be a bit of a barrier for it to get through. So many will have bought in the 70's and sold a batch this morning. I'm with LWHL on that front and sold some just shy of 90p figuring I'd buy back in the low 80s. I'm betting on concerns over CPI numbers. Reading some of the stuff going on, certainly looks like food inflation may be far from under control.

Yes, it's a low margin business but hopefully, despite failing in most his objectives, JL has succeeded in installing some discipline and focus around profitability in all the tenders CPI now participate in. I won't hang around for the long term here but the decline seems over-done which interested me. I just don't believe this will climb to 50/60p ... going back to when it first hit the teens, it seems to recover and then there's always something dragging it back down.

Seems like these have been sold into quite considerable over the last weeks or so. Just bought in as the news seems already well covered and can't imagine anything more drastic coming out of tomorrow. They are simply in a real demand trough but their technology is a pretty essential one feeding into the hardware industry.

Sorry guys, I really lambasted the idea only a month or so of a RI here. Synthomer's commercial profile is very different as they go through a low demand cycle.

You are right in terms of them managing the debt profile all along ... however that was in an almost ZIRP type environment.

I've gone from absolutely positive there will not be an RI here to 80%. MCG can definitely manage the debt with the increasing revenue, cashflow conversion rate and climbing EBITDA. I think they may well have said at some point an RI was not required. Anyway, I hope you are right and they don't choose to accelerate debt reduction in any way.

Most like director buy ins but, what they don't like, is when they buy at the bottom. Dropping it lower is a little smack on the backside for him.

Having bought back in again the other day I've gone back through the info available. Such a shame what has happened here. JL had a good reputation and despite the Covid interruption showed signs he would deliver. Ultimately he's ended up failing. All he's done is trim this down to a low margin focussed business which will likely be vulnerable to contract losses and sector challenges. It still has debt, is still eating cash and could get a fine on top. Adolfo is being handed a re-admission to the hospital.

On the positive, having seen first hand some of the service Capita are providing, they have seriously cleaned up their act. The digitalisation of processes and increased efficiencies reducing admin personnel requirement is impressive. With AMZ background Adolfo should be able to pull on further software advancements to integrate more AI into the process. Whilst there will not be an eradication of manual process it will eventually get damn close as the wheels turn to our dystopian future. He could deliver a far more robust and investable Capita.

I absolutely agree with what you say Carrington. It really is just a waiting game for this. However there is a big but and roadbump I am now concerned about. I hold Synthomer as (like MCG) I saw it as significantly undervalued with debt perception being the major anchor holding it down. Now my opinion of value has not changed but I am now in a position of stumping up another 35K to take up the RI and stay in the game for what I still believe with double and then some.

There's nothing stopping MCG from doing this and it really was not a consideration of mine until yesterday. It would in fact need to be similar to SYNT's which ironically would handle the bridge on the bond in November.

I'm an out and out believer in this stock but consideration of an RI is now on my radar. In fact I wonder if this was already looked at and there was some leakage pushing it to that 75p. It would need Cosmen support and for various reasons they may withhold it.

If you took the discount from 60p and factor in the ability to trade the nil issue shares at 197. I figured 51p was fair target and then discount from there for some reality in the short term. So 47 mark seems fair in run up to ex-rights.

It just seems like a case of agree to disagree with dissenters. We're all looking and interpreting the same sets of information in our own way.

At least I have been able to use this repeated error to explain to my son how both comprehension and math can compliment each other in his educational journey.

MCG is still my largest holding soon to be surpassed by this I reckon.

KG...one of the reasons MCG is where it is relates to the markets belief they either sell assets (e.g. US business) or do an RI. You really need to get your head around working this stuff out or you'll just keep losing. If the forecast is for rates at this level for a long period, MCG will need to take action somehow as it will take too long simply by profits to eat into the debt. Personally I think it's priced in but as you can see the shorts are not going anywhere and I'd suggest it's for that reason.

Expect more RI's in this higher rate environment we are in. If the business is stable enough for shareholders to buy in then it's better than the significantly higher rate debt. It also paves the way for buyback sooner rather than later to balance things in the future.