Member Info for joseywales

From memory that largely drawn to fund the rental business? Not too concerning at all as you have to take the upfront cash hit to fund that model. Rental income should more than cover the increased costs of borrowing.

Only becomes an issue if other parts do not perform so well or the maintenance of rental installed base becomes cumbersome (e.g. warranty claims etc).

In agreement with you KatStrangeler It looks like it has increased the EBITDA driven by cost saving and moving away from trade based device acquisition which flatters the top line but delivers little real profit. Looks like a 10% or so decline in device revenue and 20% in media. Seems that the profit came in Q2 which I imagine was clearing down the backlog generated by the Royal Mail strikes. With that done, I think the revenue decline is ominous when you have established UK and US business, along with newly installed ATM base and rental service running.

I've sold most of what I had and will weigh up going back in at the 15/16 mark. Thing is, declining revenue and increased eBITDA is ok but if it tilts, cash burn becomes an issue.

It not really a high level of debt since the receivables from the laminates sale would have reduced it post year end. The debt's manageable and as mentioned before, taking the divi off the table is prudent cash management and should lend itself to debt reduction if necessary.

The debt/interest rate argument is clearly low hanging fruit to support the short narrative in a lot of tickers at the moment.

I know the SP and MCAP history ... was saying it simply was not worth it. Anyone who's touched this trade would have told you that.

Some time before, Outerwall took EcoATM for $350m (from memory) and imagine that was part of the 'story' MMAG went to key investors with. Gazelle sell through and EcoATM collection was the strategic 'package' . However, the supply is always the kicker to growth and profitability and maintaining high yield on premium sell through lines.

So, in my opinion, as it is today, maybe a trade suitor would go in at £30-40m. At the end of the day it's a proven business but bottom line is really challenged and the continuing move to rental is cash absorbent in mid-term.

The sure bet is there is no sure bet!

However ... they sold that laminates business and got $260m net proceeds for a £200m revenue, £16m ebitda business. So factoring in currency, a multiple of 12 or so on EBITDA (which seems crazy high).

So let's say this year is not so great and happens to deliver 2bn revenue and 170-200m Ebitda ... it really does not take a math genius to work out a £420m market cap is under true value. Even at 6 x EBITDA you're looking at well over double.

It becomes just a matter of time and the white noise the hedge funds and the like create in the SP, just have to remain white noise.

We should be due a trading update within the next month should we not?

Don't know why they just did not mention this in the full year results presentation in a couple of weeks (unless they were obligated to). Hard to work out but I imagine the Greek business alone could be worth up to half the current market cap for what is around 15% of the group revenue.

Can only imagine some of the large investors have put some pressure on to address value.

Don't know the story at IPO but it has never been worth that. 30-40m quite likely. Issue with all secondary market/circular economy stuff is that it all sounds great but very few build a true barrier to entry. Ultimately, sustainable scale is all you can build. For that reason they need more geographic reach and succeed in corporate. At the moment they are just a bit too singular in terms of buy from consumer, sell to consumer.

Yes, in the 84's the opportunity to add had to be taken really. Can understand why it's getting hammered but it's just a downturn that all businesses have to manage their way through and frankly by holding off the divi till 2024 they ensure a decent, robust cash situation to manage things should the downturn cut deeper.

It could just be that they have cleared down the voting rights held through financial instruments. This could well have been for someone else.

Other than an opportunity at multi-year lows on many tickers, there's just not much incentive for big funds to keep their money in UK PLC. The greater outlook is dire if you actually speak to many people running SME businesses in the UK. The Brexit factor is starting to bite and government have got their heads firmly buried in the sand. There's obviously other issues but it's been enough for me to move some money out of UK only managed funds. There is simply no pathway being presented to support SME growth, diversity and strength. (Just some minor pandering to big corporates).

Long winded, but I expect some big fund managers are betting against any significant boost to the UK PLC and putting their money into other geographies where they expect recovery will be more 'dynamic'.

When it comes to NEX I expect decent results end of July and no reason why the divi cannot remain. Whilst debt is not significant, so long as there is no downward margin shift, it's manageable. What the debt does actually mean is that return to a a bigger divi (in p) is a way off.

Certainly seems a robust business which is just having to navigate the challenges which most companies need to right now. I've grabbed a small holding. Will be a tough year for them but it seems like the market has been particularly brutal. I just think these types of companies are worth holding just in case PE or trade buyer tries to take advantage whilst the business and SP are both a bit battered. These bad news times will turn ... just a matter of when.

B2B is significantly different to the B2C for device buyback/re-sale.

To capture the product it's much more around compliance (data and e-waste) and often you'll find networks and OEMs are in the chain for the large corporates as well ... needs multi-channel dynamic trade-in/up solutions to be truly effective.

A guy from Asda would not be the right person to run that side anyway. Fancy he was just used to get the kiosks in play as he'd of been able to cut thorough some lines of communication.

It's not clear if they have a clear strategy and B2B platform to take to market or simply trying to flog the musicmagpie model. The latter will not deliver big numbers in my opinion.

PR, TV ads paid for by Boots!! ... clearly never worked with, or in retail. MHC will have to be coughing up for any sort of campaign which could be tied to Boots taking on the product. 'Marketing' package would be incorporated into the contract details usually. If the product does not sell though, it would usually cost the vendor dearly.

Actually if you drill into the detail, Boots are not two feet in with all the product lines. Many of the lines are using the Boots site as a marketplace type deal and it expressly says you are buying from a different legal entity other than Boots.

DYOR but devil is always in the detail.

That said, still really positive and hopefully more retailers will be announced.

An update is pretty pointless as the market will want to see sell through numbers and how retail relationships are 'trending' for the business .. I imagine it's simply too early to tell.

I am in both too. However I think Currys will not get any interest until the Norway issue is sorted. Just like NEX, just need to be patient here. In a few weeks the full year results are issued and so long as they are in line with the trading update, at the very least, there will be some divi cash to look forward to even is the SP remains depressed.

Hopefully the First Group results have prompted a closer look at NEX from some funds. I fancy NEX as a business is trailing FG by 12 months simply because it has not sold assets. Hopefully share buyback plus divi come through on publication of the 2023 results next year.

Very strange. I was waiting to see if I could top up sub 16 but the best quoted was 16.48.

Unfortunately nothing to do with MM/Decluttr. CExhcange are a white label trade-in outfit based in Texas. It will generate some volume but generally in-store trade in is not volume effective outside the usual tech retail / mobile provider retail.

I think the postal strikes were good for business. They made many companies re-think their logistics structure and gave further scale to retail drop solutions. So whilst commercially painful is has lead companies to find alternative solution which in some cases are lower cost. (Reverse logistics for retail clothing did this ages ago).

Obviously MM have their kiosks in Asda but I never really liked that solution much as you need significant per site throughput to make the cost to collect/process equation balance. Also MM pay too much for the devices that go in them (when they do) and the biggest issue Eco-ATM had was the percentage mix leaning too much to lower end devices. Yet to know if MM experience the same. I just think that level of investment would have been better spent developing effective solutions for the corporate space.

Brexit's probably screwed it all up but I always thought marrying Rebuy (Germany) and MM together would create quite a European powerhouse in consumer buyback. .

The US side should really have seen some gain from competitor sites closing and the like.

Well lets wait and see the shorttracker tomorrow. If they were buys, that would be enough to clear GLG's short ....

I'm not reading much into that and at this stage and I don't think they need to support the price. I would just be patient. If the product does what it says on the box and they have operational/supply chain cost well managed to compete if necessary, I think it will be a winner.

I say that because I have seen the secondary medical device market in the USA and it's mass proliferation into homes. (Largely due to the system there). Parking the issues, home med treatment diagnosis etc is an ugly necessity there. In exactly the same way, the NHS while free its overburdened. £50 for a test is cheaper than the 150-300 private hospitals charge if you want something more immediate. So right now, I am only concerned about the product range/solutions, effectiveness and ability to scale at pace. I also would want to know what they hold as USP over challenger companies and the like - is this simply a solution which becomes commodity priced and ends as a trace to the bottom or can margin be maintained.

The SP is white noise at the moment as far as I'm concerned.

......and finally, will the real Paul McManus please stand up!