Member Info for Genghis15

munzhino, you are right that the Talaxis transaction unsettled me ; I had held here previously on the assumption financing was secured. That seems to me no longer the case, and that, no matter the strategic or monetary woth of the asset, the company is nor beholden to funders, who usually extract a high price for such.

i may, of course, be wrong, but I'm wary of risking my hard won cash until I can see it won't be hugely diluted in the coming months. dyor and take your own view, but that's mine.

Another milestone.

Bt I am puzzled by the euphoria when afaik there is still no financing in place. Have I missed something?

All irrelevant.

What we need to hear is that the plant has been delivered, not "expected". That's when we'll see a sp move, and not b4.

rivaldo, thanks, v useful background, I have only just seen your reply.
i bought in early Tues, will likely add more on any dip. It was the IC alerted me to this share.

After reading up it seems the IC article was right to pick the only non obvious risk factor is the large % of revenues from 1 customer, Centamin. hopefully as revenue grows that % will redue, and is only a risk should the contract be lost, for instance if CEY were taken over .
All in all the co still looks too cheap.

New to this share and that was a good set of results. Will be doing more DD, but is there a quick answer to, or cooment on, the investment potrfolio?

Not something I expected to find here.

"· The total value of investments (listed and unlisted) was US$38.7 million as of 31 December 2022, versus $47.3 million at 30 June 2022 and versus US$60.2 million at the end of 2021; The portfolio recorded investment losses (unrealised) of US$9.55 million in H2 2022;

· Capital was a net seller in 2022 and has invested a net total of $12.5 million in the investment strategy since forming the Investment Committee formally in January 2019;

· The portfolio remains concentrated around a few key holdings with our holding in Predictive Discovery accounting for ~50%;

· The Direct Investment portfolio will provide a mark to market contribution to results."

I see this bb is no different to most small cap growth stocks ; full of faithful followers who only want to hear +ve views at all times.
Well, life (and shares) ain't like that. Listen to views that may not suit your hopes, dreams, and vested interest, it helps to prevent confirmation bias and just may be telling you something you hadn't known or considered. I won't be visiting often cos I've seen it all b4, but wyndrum makes valid points.
There is a good chance this flies over the next month, just as there is a good chance of a TO within a year or so, possibly even at several bags from here, imho.
But there is also a chance that the boss wants to keep his baby and is planning a raise to push on alone.

Place your bets, or not, but there is room for a range of viewpoints.

"upgrade end of month mid February MIIF looking to be onboard...that for me will result in a SP of 75p.."

Would yu care to share your rationale for that?
my assumption is that MIIF will want in at a discount, which is acting currently as a drag on the SP. ergo, they will enter somewhere below SP at the time, which is why NH is doing the rounds trying to boost the SP prior to that.

I agree post MIIF stake the brakes will be off, but let's see the extent of any dilution b4 making SP projections.

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/five-aim-share-tips-2023-ii526360

11.8, 14, and now 17.5 and still buying. Great sign that at least he's confident.

Just checking up on SFR, see they are only 1Q away from Motheo prod, and mb 18m from adding , up to 15MT pa. A4 alone est $6.4m pa to MTR, per Simon Thompson, on a £29m Mcap, ignoring the capped $2m on T3, potential at A (uncapped 2%), and Kalahari, and the remaining SFR shares net of borrowings. I exoect ST to do a sum of parts valuation shortly, musy come to much more than today's SP, as MM clearly knows.

https://www.share-talk.co.uk/announcements/bus/metal-tiger-plc/director-dealing/20230117153600Z4401

Get that raise out the way (assuming there is one, there r other possibilites, but all likely dilutive) and that will be time to fill your boots.

Doc's been pushing this 4 a year or so. One day it will come good, hopefully b4 more funds needed. looks to me that someone didn't grease the wheels for that kit on the quayside.

Remember there are likely some forces at work that still don't want another coking plant.....

Malik has a point, imv, tho perhaps not well made. OC they can't sack half the workforce ; we must assume those employeesare necessary to do the job ; if you question that, you are questioning the mgt and Bod , and in that case, shouldn't be here.
So give the Bod the benefit of the doubt (such as it is0 and assumethe headcouint and costs are necessary.

Where Malik has a point is that if all these employees/costs are there at current turnover, how far will that cost increase with more orders? It's all about whethers costs are as elastic as demand, ot less so, and when will IES be cash +ve.

And that's what we need to know, but have no way of finding out.

It will be a TO target one day, but when?

On the one hand golferboy has it ; profits are a long way off.

Otoh, the £ and mkt make UK cos attractive pricewise atm.

One day this must fit well into a portfolio of testing/treatments for a much bigger co, likely Us. cOULD BE TOMORROW BUT MORE LIKELY TO BE A YEAR AWAY eITHER WAY, THO i DON'T HOLD, i WOULDN'T BE SELLING AT THI LEVEL, EITHER. Apols 4 capslock.

just for clarity, tho i rarely post here anyway, I am not connected at all to GenghisInvestor, coincidental handle choices!

https://kereport.podbean.com/e/thorexplorations-%e2%80%93the-doutadevelopment-projectcontinuesto-delivermoresolid-drill-resultssegilolaproduction-ison-track-for-annualguidance/

i bought in here sub 40 couple months back, held at the peak, and was planning a long hold.

i reconsidered post the TW rant ; not bcos I give him much credence, but bcos in this unceretain market any co 2 years from production, and still needing funds (tho not too uch) is vulnerable imv at a £200m+Mcap. Yes, i know the Ghana SWF is mooted as lined up, but at who knows what price, and tho the ML should be a formality, nothing is a given.

So I'm still v bullish in the LT here, but can see more drift until funding/SWF and ML sorted.

That said, even in this market-mb esp in this market- there are predators about and the IRR here is v attractive.

As ever, we must wait and see. For clarity, I exited in low 40s for now, will likely dip my toe back in in NY, SP permitting!

Jenslehman "It has always been priced higher than our brent- $20..."

That's not the point. The point is "The final outcome and impact on realised prices remain uncertain".

That could mean anything, or nothing ; but i doubt the MNR is planning on generosity....

Comments s far miss the most worying point imv :

"The Company is currently negotiating with the MNR to amend the Shaikan Lifting Agreement, including a change in reference price for Shaikan crude oil sales from Dated Brent to the local benchmark KBT (“Kurdistan Blend”), effective 1 September 2022. The final outcome and impact on realised prices remain uncertain and further updates will be provided as appropriate"

Commiserations to all here......I exited a long time ago but was keeping an eye for possible re entry. That seems a long way off now. need to lok at cash burn again, I guess.