malrees As well as Clare Slightam, there are other geos at HUR still, (afaik) who have cut their teeth on FB under Trice. Daniel Bonter is one who has papers to his name, tho I don't have the links to hand. On the one hand, they will possibly still think in Trice mode, if you like ; OTOH, they will retian all the knowledge of why the Trice monel was considered robust for so long.
I agree with many on here pointing out that the Trice model is not yet entirely disproved. But the results of WD, WW, and the well behaviours of the last few months, do throw a lot of doubt on it. I suspect the BoD will go in a cautious direction after September, modelling a higher OWC.
But without more drilling, the jury will remain out ; unless, of course, well performance deteriorates further.
That is the big worry, and is why the SP is where it is.
Given no new equity has been raised specifically for this deal, I'm not sure where your 40% loan to equity comes from?
They are taking on interest rate risk, and inflation risk. 3 month LIBOR can move fast, tho it's currently hard to see rates rising much, if at all. But the inflation risk matters, imv ; sooner or later all this govt debt will have to be inflated away. wWy have they agreed to a 3% cap? That would be a deal breaker for me, and skews the benefit to Morrisons, who, like all supermarkets, will have no difficulty riding any inflation wave.
As you sat there are variables, but also the CMd feom memory was less than clear on those cpsts that were truly fixed and those which were not.
The main thing to remember, tho, is the calcs ppl are making on this are based on the 18k bpd annualised figure. that is NOT comparable to any quoted current figures, which will need to be reduced for a 10% downtime allowance.
On 8 July the co said ".A planned annual week long maintenance shut down is provisionally scheduled for September 2020."
On 6 Aug it said "On 2 August 2020, the Aoka Mizu FPSO underwent a controlled shutdown to undertake an inspection. The inspection identified necessary repairs which have been ongoing in recent days, with production expected to restart imminently. "
I see no reason to connect the two, and fully expect a fiurther planned shutdown in September. To the extent the two statements allow for misinterpretation, the co should immediately clarify, imho.
Yes, this is the possible flw in nic's theory, however we don't KNOW its water from near the heel, that's HUR interpretation.
There is just so much uncertainty. When the BoD does reach any new conclusion/model, I would really like to see a full presentation, to PIs as well as instis, of how and why all te previously presented Trice models are not valid.
The least we deserve, imho, and in due course I shal make my views known to HUR. I suggest others do the same.
This will rise or fall when we see a future update with solid news on cash income, and/or on any major market moves. It is the silly season, and market collywobles always seem more likely in the Aug/Oct period.
gonzo I live near the A31 London to Bmth, and it was chokka last avo/eve, normal Fri in August stuff. And it will be chokka Sun avo going the other way. Add in the Hotels are reportedly full tooo, and those beaches will make a few headlines I imagine.
Bloo Clearly the Bod no longer believe that model, they believe it more likely well behaviour is consistent with a higher OWC, meaning we are pulling on the aquifer, likely thru a downward fracture leg(s).
If they think that firmly enough both to sck the co founder and RNS it, it's hard to hold to the original theory.