George Frangeskides, Exec-Chair at Alba Mineral Resources, discusses grades at the Clogau Gold Mine. Watch the full video here.
Let's face it, the divi is negligible, even with the Kentro payouts.
It is far from the only co at a ridiculous discount to NAV, but the current 30%+ is extreme for a co with such a track record. The same is true over at OCI.
I saw the tweet and it was pretty clear, words to the effect he would arrive as an explorer, and leave as a miner.
I don't know any other way to interpret t other than he's flown out in anticipation of the ML being granted. Thought at the time this must be market sensitive. Careless, really, I would expect the co to clarify.......cats cannot be put back in bags.
Not wanting to pick a fight here, but tho much of what you say mb true, the thing being punished most in current markets is not lack of trust (bad tho that is) but lack of cash. Any hint that a co is strapped 4 cash sees big moves down, natural in a mkt where bond yields are rising, QE being reversed, and hernce capital is both more expensive and more scarce.
They really need to muddle thru now, or any cash will come at a steep price.
We of course have the benefit ofhindsight, but the Bod should have had cash flow forecasts sufficient to tell them that a raise would e prudent, at least 6 months or more ago, imho.
That mamagent failed tp provide, and/or dorectors didn't ask for, such forecasts, and /or they were inaccurate, or that the Bod were happy to sail so close to the wind.....or whatever factors you can think of.....either way, it does not reflect well on the corp governance here.
Nearly 2 months since 10 Aug RNS re prepayments and cash management. Sometime this Q we will find out if the co has managed to get over its cahflow hump without a raise. Until then, i suspect every market down day sees the sp ratchet lower. Only clarity on cash, ruling out a forced raise on punitive terms, can change the mood music here.
Everything else is noise.
The old saw, "Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity but cash is reality" .
Q7 update was early Aug. Q2 is not going to happen b4 Nov, and then expect more of the usual ; lots of figures about production, waffle about building mkt share, etc.... but short on hard facts about cash. Go on, Shishir, prove me wrong.
TP raised from 40 to 60p here. https://x.com/Robin25461631/status/1703676552536322389?s=20
Yes, it's a paid for broker note, but still....
Binbin
Many tx 4 posting. Much as I hate to be the doomster again, your 12. causes me concern
"12. The battery minerals semi annuals were released a few days ago. They note that they need to raise cash and an option is to liquidate their TGR shares. However I can see no reference to actually doing it. They have 5m shares and 6m which vest in Dec 23
Combined with this from Andii's reply
"Further, whilst there is inherent uncertainty in the capital markets, the Group has adequate liquid
assets in the form of Tirupati Graphite shares should they not pursue capital raising.".
So, more potential share sales? Oh dear, are we in falling knife territory?
At some point this share will be a bargain, but catching that knife is a risky business.....needs some +ve news on cash, and soon.
HarChris
Your scenario is ceetainly possible, and is what the co is indicating. Trouble is the co has ever indicated anything else, preferring to focus on feeding us production figures rather than cash projections ; so it has a credibility problem with all but the most committed investors. That will change once it demonstrares cash problems are behind it.
I would substitute "should" or mb "would" for "will turn things around" in your post, but hope your faith is rewarded.
I'm afraid a co relying on its buyers to finance its st (?) cash problems is always going to mean SP weakness. the bullet should have been bitten long ago, and failure to do so indicates poot cashflow forecasting and planning.
There is no saying what the floor is here now, the market is merciless once a co is cash strapped, as TGR clearly is. Holders, of which thankfully I'm not one, must hope recent creditor/ debtor arrangements see the co thru. If not, a pretty ugly set of options face the BoD.
Https://twitter.com/Robin25461631/status/1700053193911140798?s=20
Broker note here shows further funding need of $38m, tho possibly partially offset by current cash (adj for MIIF inv) of $20 to $22m. No doubt this will easily be funded, but clarity on this is the final piece of the jigsaw.
Good news, and as others say ML cannot be far behind.....BUT by my calc the funding gap still stands at c. $30m.
DFS capex $185, less Piedmont $70m =$115m, less 50% PLL = $57.5m, less MIIF $27.9m (addnl $5m corporate) = $29.6m.
That's the big Q now, where does this come from, equity (raise or pardters), convo, debt?
I had hoped the MIIF deal would plug the gap, but unless I have missed something it doesn't.
Please advise if I have missed something here.
I fear Hazbeen is on the money. Given usual 90 day settlement, cash may not be sufficient to keep things rolling. It is possible offtakers mb induced to pay early by discounting, tho. Wait and see, but the co has a record of disappointment.
Cigam
Thanks 4 comments. OK, it's not unusual, and i guess often oes in hand with the higher risk jurisdictions, too. They say they have stockpiled product, which mb explains why offtakers were happy to prepay...tho it perhaps begs the Q as to why that stockpile wan't being shipped earlier.
hatChris
yes, your scenario is quite possible. I was pointing out the possible and many reasons for current SP weakness, not saying they cannot be overcome.
Anyone buying at these levels could do v well indeed,BUT....given market backdrop i suspect the fear factors i mention will predominate for some time yet. At the very least, the co now has a credibility mountain to climb.