Member Info for Genghis15

Take your point, AS, but it's just NOT the norm for shares to rise on news of an upcoming placing. These things tend to be a bit leaky, so one has to suspect that the raise is at a premium or contains some other elements that add value at the current SP.

But who knows, strange things happen in the markets, and mb today's exuberance is just spilling oiver, as you say. Roll on Wednesday!

Puzzling. It CAN'T be arb news, surely? That couldn't be kept under wraps?

Mb a strategic investor at a premium, perhaps tied or leveraged to the arb award when it happens? I too had been thinking of adding, but think I'll wait till things are clearer.

Well you're likely more knowledgeable than I on Japan, tho i believe their huge debt/gdp ratio has been somewhat mitigated by it being largely held domestically in "sticky" accounts.

Trump wasn't the first to weaponise the $, but has wielded it far more carelessly, while alienating allies as well as foes. I fear this doesn't end well for anyone, but gold sems as good a safe haven bet as anything, and mb more than that.

We are certainly living in "interesting" times.

I would suggest the JPY stress is largely a by symptom of $ stress in a classic feedback loop, and that thesource hass been the $ all along. Imbalances were built up over a couple decades, but until Trump there was confidence that somehow things could be managed.

It is plain to all now that few in this WH know anything about managing, they are all about disruption, dismantling, and free for all. I dread to think how they would manage a real crisis, financial or otherwise. Arsonists are better known for fuelling fires than extinguishing them.

Will delay things a few moinths, perhaps. But much of the MAFL valuation now rests on the Golden Sun IPO. That's the one to watch.

Currently 1.68CAD = 90p, so even a divi drop tomorrow should leave it higher than today's London close of 86p.

But logic doesn't always apply ; gold is also up $75 to $4900+ as I type. £1 by February?

GS forecasts are like the proverbial rable rouser who sees a crowd then jumps in front of it shouting "follow me" They just movetheir forecasts to follow the herd.

Even their lower case of $13.95 has some optimistic assumptions on AISC, valuation multiple, etc. But If PoG steadies or rises, Douta timeline goes to plan (and mb even updates to a larger MRE ), and Cote d'Ivoire drilling proves up at least 2 highly mineable prospects, £5 is not beyond reach by 2028/29 imv.

Everything has to go right, tho, and there are risks around PoG, politics/taxation ( windfall taxes?) , and all the usual mining risk. Still, if I didn't think £2.50 was achievable by 2028 I would have top sliced and looked for that sort of upside elsewhere. My biggest position by far, and I'm not reducing it.

Currently At 1.63CAD = 88p. Do we hit 90p tomorrow, or does the Xdiv knock it back a couple of pence?

We'll see. but that £1 mark is looking easily achievable by end Q1 as long as PoG behaves.

I'll be surprised if AISC is anywhere near $2k. I'm expecting to see more like $1500. Remember the planning for this started when gold was only c. $2k, so even a PEA wouldn't have got off the ground.

Not long to wait, we'll see soon enough.

Quite.

But whilst not in the least cheering it on -I'm frankly appalled by it-it was my fear that the Great Orange Baboon would undermine the $ (and possibly much else) that underpinned my decision to not just hold here but to increase (last buy was in April at 37p) and to go large with other gold plays MAFL and GPM.

And while the madness continues, I can see no better place to be than gold, and no better gold play for the core of my gold holdings than THX.

I'm sure he will!

Jacques very matter of fact, but an IPO of Golden Sun (OK that would likely be a year awaY) could see this bag, at least.

So NAV is up to 37.9p @ 30/09 34.5p from at 30/06/25. But 55% of invested capital is not revalued since their las financing, in many cases years agosince when not only have metals prices rocketed but most have made significant and value enhancing operational progress. Some must be close to a liquidity event.

And as custardpot says below, this sort of valuation disconnect surely should not be left to continue; it is not hard to imagine a simple yet cautious and credible methodology of revaluing investee stakes to reflect major movements in underlying factors.

OB below posits true NAV to be 75.5p. Since his post PoG is up 7%, other metals also up. I'll wager next time he covers this his estimate of true NAV will be 80p+. All imho, dyor, etc.

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/mafl-can-baffle

Well that says stay tuned for Jacques. Bring it on.

"Of course there will be a corresponding dip to follow. " Mb. But don't bet on it with gold flying and updates due.

Don't bet on it. Sometimes it's Feb, and i think one year it went missing entirely. Not sure how much reported NAV will grow if thety continue to value unlisted investees on historic basis, rather than using an updated valuation to reflect metals pricing and ops progress.

True NAV including those metrics could well be near OB's high case 75p.

Just read the Oak Bloke link.

Adw

Yes, that's my recollection too, I think he mentioned a split of $100m/$150m cash/debt or vice versa, too. A recent interview I think. we will get a much better idea on 26th.

Just using ISAInvestor's figs (corrected for stockpile) and cash $137+GIC $23m+bullion $14m = total cash/near cash of $174m = £129m so Mcap £493m - cash = £129m = EV £334m. Against stockpiled ore w contained gold c. $200m (£149m) and who knows how many future years at Segilola and no value yet on the NPV of Douta or Cote d'Ivoire.

OK, we await Segilola extension and Douta FID, timeline , capex and debt/cash financial split. But once we get that, Mcap has to be significantly higher by H2, and mb much sooner imho. All dependent oc, on usual mining risks and PoG.

Not quite true, they are currently running cash +ve and ramping up. I guess it's historically regarded as a safer jurisdiction, Trump notwithstanding......