Member Info for Genghis15

skeleor
Agree, but trouble is it's rare for any co to actually rule out a raise, for various understandable reasons. It's usually couched in terms that give reassurance that it won't be needed in the near future, but leaves flexibilty to deal with the inexpected.

Even some limited assurance like that would be +ve, imo. Given current markets, the co should, imv, be considering whether the current expansion will deiver rofitability ; if so, perhaps further expansion, assuming it will require financing, shuld be paused until markets are more certaIN, and/or alt finance,is available (more likely 4 a cash+ve co in say, a year's time?).

This is the sort of strategic/budgetary discussion I want to hear from Mgt.

Quite right, Shareinvestment. I have already submitted my question, focused on cash.

Good update, glad I held my nerve here. Looking fwd to the presentation and Q&A.

I may even ave down at this level, tho I'm still v nervous of the overall market.

Problem is, Shishir in Mhows email reply is hiding behind audit, which does not prevent an update ; audit relates to March22 which by then will be almost 6 months old.

He DOES say co not planning cash raise at this SP, but doesan't say what the cash position is, and at what point it may be forced to raise (equity or possibly, debt) regardless of terms.

I fear by Xmas at latest there will have to be cash from somewhere, which in current markets could be very damaging for existing holders.
Once that's done, blue skies ahead, imho.

Mcap £20m for a co that is still cash-ve, and almost certainly needs to raise again b4 itbecomes cash +ve, may seem oversold when looking at forward rev projections.

But for now, in a bear market, can't see a SP recovery until cash is sorted.

Exactly, candlestick.

Cash can only be spent once, and it seems to ma that with ops disruption to revenue , addnl capex on roads, on top of existing uncertainty ovr financing of next stage expansion, the road to profitsability, and more important, cash positivity, has not yet been built.

That's far from the clarity we need.

We need to know, what is the present cash balance, and will TGR reach cash+ve without needing to raise?

Bcos if it can't, in current markets, SP will likely continue to drift until cash is raised to provide that clarity.

I don't know what options the co has available. loan finance may be available at a price, but i suspect equity and/or convetibles may be more likely.

we shall have to wait and see, but i will only be buying when the cash position is clearer.

SR

It's on the cards. A certain party has them by the balls.

It is not negative to point out risks, disapointments, and underperformance.

his is an investment BB, not a football cheerleaders group.

Overall, excellent cash generation, due to a fortuitous PoO. And that's good enough, in some wats ; after all, cash is what its all about!

But there is no getting away from the fact GKP planned to be 5k bpd higher by now, which at $100 opex margin is over $180m pa. That would be a helluva special divi.

I've done the numbers. I'm sure we all have. They're fantastic, potentially huge revenues.

But until we get clarity on funding commitments, and/or cash is rolling in, the jury remains out over whether CGO can get to cash+ve without raising, and on where capex finance is coming from.

Beevorma

"achieve expected positive bottom line from the current financial year being 1 April 2022 to 31 March 2023."

i too looked carefully at that statement. Firstly,. it can be read in more than one way, ie
for the FY as a whole? Seems unlikely , given that much of the year will have been lossmaking. I suspect it means that they expect ops to move to profiability towards the end of the FY, perhps for the final quarter. Clarity on this would have been better.
Secondly, a "positive bottom line" can onlybe a good thing, but anyone who's ever read, or compiled, a P&L and/or Balance Sheet can tell you that it is often very different cash +ity, and neither does it tell anything about capex financing.

Perhaps most telling in the RNS is what it does NOT say. It is long on rhetoric, but the only nos quoted are for tonnes mined and sold. important, yes.

But critically, no mention of £s, $s, or rupees. None at all. No rtevenue nos, no interimcost of sales/income/gross margin, nothing. No mention of cash position.

I know I may not be popular for pointing this out. But cash is king, and the first thing I want to know about any co is the current and projected cash position. And this co really, really, doesn't want to tell me.

Glengarth
Problem is we are all guessing, the co will not say when it will get to profitability, when it will be cash+ve, nor give any clarity over how the expansion capex is to be funded.

I may be overly cynical here, but it seems to me that any co in a position to assure investors of its cash position will take the opportunity to do so. The lack of any such here makes me think that at some point cash may be needed as apex predates cash profits.

If anyone can point me at a co statement that indicates otherwise I'd be grateful.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/06/20/bargain-shares-exploiting-a-valuation-disconnect/?xnpe_tifc=bfbDx.e.hFLu4uHDOFojx9psafeWaeiWhFWDEkUdhfJLau81qfJLRfXcbdiArkeLxuYXOIzlxdeu4FblxIHT&utm_source=exponea&utm_campaign=Investment%20Daily%20Email%2021%20June%202022&utm_medium=email

That's a big drop today. Does that smell like a placing?

Excellent. "We don't want to be a cash burn, cash call, company". Amen to that. says he wants to build the value, not burn cash.
Waiting for the NSR to kick in is fine by me, too many CEOs go off chasing the next deal, which can just as easily destroy shareholder value as buld it.

Revenue is Vanity. Profit is Sanity. Cash is Reality. Revenues are not what counts. When willTGR post profits, and/or turn cash+ve?

I posted the above for the benfit of others. Abusive poters have been filtered, I'm not interested in slanging matches. If you can't address the issues raised, just don't bother.

I emailed the co asking if the terms of the loan contained anything other than a commercial coupon, such as warrants, penalties, what the repayment terms were, etc.

Unsurprisingly I received no reply, which can only leave me thinking the co doesn't want
us to know we've been scalped. well, not me... after my toe in the water on RNS day I got nervous on the issue and sold, luckily.

i confess to not paying close attentrion here recently, but i am familiar with the co outline plan, which is to ramp up production.
i don't recall any clear statyement of how further expansion would be funded, nor on when the co would become profitable. remember, revenues are vanity, profit is sanity,.....and cash is sanity. This bear market is focusing on sanity, and non +ve cos are being punished, as here, as they are seen s vulnerable to having to raise at depressed prices, which becomes a spiral.

i would welcome sensible cfactual, corection, if anything above is not so, but as I see it, at some point the co will need more cash.

We don't know the reasons, nor the terms.

Imho lenders will have taken a good piece of flesh, which is why terms have not been revealed.