Member Info for Genghis15

Whew! Narrow escape for me, nearly dabbled here yesterday. Suspect a down day today.....

I don't recall doubting their ability to get coal out of the grund ; my concerns have always been over cashflow. First the Zim buyers strike meant a new offtakeer was needed, now in place, but several months later than hoped.

Not sure about EGM requirement ; AGMs ofen give a blank authorisation up to certain limit. But if one is needed, I'm sure it could be done in short order.

I'm not saying "a placing is coming" ! Just that there is enough uncertainty to give me pause, and the opportunity to rule one out was missed today.

On the +ve side, mb a small, keep the lights on, raise would not be too dilutive, and once sales commence SP should respond. Tho CGo still needs offtaker finance after that to progress the coke batteries.

There's a lot of potential here, and if it all alls into place 20p is quite possible.

But it is not, imv, the nailed on multibagger a few here seem to think. At least not yet.

Jay, do you have a view/cooment/correction to make on my post, or not? Am i missing something?

notrac

I share your concerns. we have no idea of current cash balance, nor if they can get to first revenues on current recources.

Today's RNS states "we expect to deliver first revenue to the Company by the end of the calendar year.", which is fine, tho note that end year is a bit later than the previous "during Q4", from memory.

However, neither today's RNS, nor the June one advising of the Non Convo loan of £1.5m, gave any assurance that would be enough to reach cash+ve on existing resources.

Today's RNS offered a golden opportunity to clarify and reassure on this point, but they didn't do so. Why not? If they had, I'm sure the SP today would have gone up significantly.

Now. mb my scepticism is overdone, but we'll see.

The best phrase in there is "· We continue to monitor the long running dispute between the Federal Iraqi Government and the KRG on the management of oil and gas assets in Kurdistan. Our operations currently remain unaffected"

All is as expected, co will mint cash just as long as the political risk remains dormant.

Tx.

looking at the latest pyr of $44m, X12 would be c. $500m, so damn near the Mcap less net cash....tho not multiples.

I guess the difference between the $500m I extrapolate here, and the much greater figure given by ave prod of 55000bpd x SAy $80 netof opex, is the MNR production/profit share agreement?

Has anybody done the nos for likely net free cash at end Aug?

It seems to me (VERY back of envelope, needs more work) the figure id at least $200m+, which leaves a Mcap net of cash of on;y $250m (and mb less) for a co netting multiples of that at current Poo, even after capex.

Either my maths is out, or the market is nuts. Mb both?

The IC, from the FT stable, appears to take a different view.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2022/08/11/m-g-s-reorganisation-bears-fruit/

I think you are misreading it, this from RNS Proposed Funding Highlights



COPL has agreed and signed a non-binding Bridge Loan Term Sheet to finance the Cuda acquisition (the "Bridge Loan Funding"). The key terms of the Loan are as follows:



· US$ 20,000,000 drawdown.



· 12 months maturity ("Maturity Date").



· 12.5% interest per annum fixed coupon, payable on the Maturity Date (6 months).



· Convertible at a 25% premium to the placing price of the placing required as a CP for this Loan (the "Convert Price"). Upon the earlier of a default or the six-month anniversary of the Note, into the Company's newly-issued ordinary shares at a conversion price equal to 80% of the lowest daily VWAP of the Company's ordinary shares over the 10 trading days immediately preceding each conversion.



· 7% implementation fee deducted from proceeds.



· Two Year common share purchase warrants representing 50% of the Convertible Loan Drawdown will be issued to the Investor, exercisable at the Convert Price.

CoplHodler
Tx 4 post.

You are keeping up with thimngs here better than I, confess my full attention has been elsewhere recently. But I ommend your post, it's exactly the kind of thing investors should be aware of, and weighing up, not ****ging off MMs, commentators, bb posters, and the City generally.

I think you are misreading it, this from RNS Proposed Funding Highlights



COPL has agreed and signed a non-binding Bridge Loan Term Sheet to finance the Cuda acquisition (the "Bridge Loan Funding"). The key terms of the Loan are as follows:



· US$ 20,000,000 drawdown.



· 12 months maturity ("Maturity Date").



· 12.5% interest per annum fixed coupon, payable on the Maturity Date (6 months).



· Convertible at a 25% premium to the placing price of the placing required as a CP for this Loan (the "Convert Price"). Upon the earlier of a default or the six-month anniversary of the Note, into the Company's newly-issued ordinary shares at a conversion price equal to 80% of the lowest daily VWAP of the Company's ordinary shares over the 10 trading days immediately preceding each conversion.



· 7% implementation fee deducted from proceeds.



· Two Year common share purchase warrants representing 50% of the Convertible Loan Drawdown will be issued to the Investor, exercisable at the Convert Price.

$20m bridge, not $250m.

I am not defending or attacking anyone. Just healthily sceptical of rainbow chasing and blind enthusiasm, when sober assessment needed.
$13m raised in April, less 7% fee= $12m, less 12.5% int on the $250m bridge = $9.6m/

Placing and loan with 50% warrants attached, and the $20m with convo terms at VWAP after 6months.

That's a lot of dilution to raise not much.

Will it be enough to see the co thru these first 3 wells, to begin proving up the field/

Or will it be back for more, now the OIP isindependently confirmed?

Who knows? I don't. And nor does any one else here, it seems, all happy to worship at the church of the converted.

Those here ****ging off GN are missing the point. He's not doubting the report, tho bear in mind that the best CPRs are prepared for paying customers who want good news.

The q is recoverability, timescale, and cost. Too many here looking athe (POTENTIAL) prize, but ignoring the path, and possible pitfalls, to get there.

This share might, one day, make you rich. But its a long way off, so take heed of doubters, don't rubbish them. On AIM, they are right much more often than they are wrong.

Yes. i hold ; if I was confident the wider market had stabilised, I'd be piling in for more. But i'm not, so.....not yet.

Hmm. Interesting point.

Certainly in accounting/finance terms that should, strictly, be the meaning. I'm not sure these early stage nat resource companies can often be held to strict meanings, tho, so i will, personally, stay with my earlier judgement. Just bcos I've seen too many cos like this suffering slips twixt cup and lip, so I am sceptical by default, which seems to me a prudent way of looking at investments.

Point taken, tho.

Well, "reg" must be someone I've blocked so i've no idea what he's saying, but if you think I'm talking "waffle" or "silly" that's your privilege.

But consider "The Company expects to be able to deliver on its first sales at a rate of 10,000 tonnes of washed coal per month to AtoZ in Q4 2022". In the absence of any further guidance, and bearing in mind no company that says Q4 expects it Dec, or they would guide "earlyQ4", or similar. Then bear in mind payment will not be instant, especially for first consignments where recipients will want to test and haggle over quality. The best companies pay in 30 days ; many 90 days.

So, ak yourself ; does CGO have ewnough cash in hand to pay for wash plant construction, continue mining and processing, until late Q1 23 ?

Looking back over previous RNss i see no clear reason to think so, tho in the absence of clearer figures I'm not sure.

If you ARe sure, please share with me WHy you're sure, preferably with a link to the info that leads you to that conclusion. I'd love to see it : i am perfectly happy o be proved wrong. That's wqhat these bb s are for ; testing our assumptions and challenging conclusions, not ****ging off ppl who have different views.

The Doc can tweet all he likes, but nothing has changed here.

The question is, still, can CGO reach cash+ve b4 the cash runs out?

If it can, it's hugely undervalued. If not, wait for the inevitable raise. Seems a 50;50 bet to me.

I listened twice to the recording, and am still unclear on finance. There were various references to achieving a +ve bottom line, but, as far as I could see, nothing to put to bed thoughts of a raise at some point.

I may have to listen again, but the assertion that TGR would not raise at low levels seems a bit vague.......now we're upto near 40p, is that still "low"?

Sorry to be a bit of a permabear here, but I couldn't quite be sure from the vid that a raise will not be needed. Mb not this year, now, but .........

Decent update. But still no mention of cxash. $$$s are what we need to see.

skeleor
Agree, but trouble is it's rare for any co to actually rule out a raise, for various understandable reasons. It's usually couched in terms that give reassurance that it won't be needed in the near future, but leaves flexibilty to deal with the inexpected.

Even some limited assurance like that would be +ve, imo. Given current markets, the co should, imv, be considering whether the current expansion will deiver rofitability ; if so, perhaps further expansion, assuming it will require financing, shuld be paused until markets are more certaIN, and/or alt finance,is available (more likely 4 a cash+ve co in say, a year's time?).

This is the sort of strategic/budgetary discussion I want to hear from Mgt.