Member Info for Genghis15

I think we csan see from SP movement the market judgement on the interview. It doesn't pay to thumb your nose at investors.

This may well come good, always a chance bigger fish step in . But AN's slowly slowly approachrisks being ovetaken by (possbly as yet unknon) technical/medical advances.

All such things need commercialising asap, or risk obsolescence and failure. cf ; Betamax. etc.

" wouldn't know how to ask hard questions if you paid them"

Who do you think pays them? !

Shear
Quite right.Imo as an investor that's a car crash interview. Great clinical news, but this is not a charity, it's an investment. No mention, at all, of investor return. Long term investors only, please, but no indication of how long, nor even of when AGL might become cash+ve.
Yes, options outlined, but essentially if not enough partners on good enough terms AGL will "need to grow the balance sheet" on its own. So, the door leftt open for a big equity raise

Altruism is all very well, but it ain';t investment.

OK, understood, rax.

"fully repaid by December" ?

Projections by ARC show debt repayments continuing past 2024, tho co will be net cash sometime in 2023.
Tried to copy and paste, but the format screws up, sorry.

Pleased to see this ""The Company's performance in Q1 2022 provides a solid foundation for the rest of the year. Segilola is now running efficiently and the Company continues to be on track to achieve its guidance of 80,000 to 100,000 ounces of gold this year within our AISC guidance of US$850-US$950 per ounce."

Was getting a little worried a the lack of an update on April production ; that statement puts ay worries to bed. Looks like they plan only Qly updates now..

All good on opex, AISC, can't see any worries here at all.

Why would they raise to set up their own distribution network? Huge diseconomies of scale. Partner with existing med devise makers is surely the way forward. IF a TO doesn't come first.

they must surely be in touch wit such companies, esp in Us, to get this rolled out at beneficial terms for both parties.

Agreed, Carrot. Mkt still behind the curve. Opens the door to multiple other approvals, both in US and RoW.

Be v surprised if no TO forthcoming over the next year.

Pipkin
The Nov 21 placing RNS said $3m would be spent on items including the wash plant, so it should be paid for from cash. As long as installation goes to plan, there should be no problem there, but with stockpiles (presumably) buildimng an pdate might be helpful.

The critical thing is offtakers. we know local Chinese were baullking after initial interest, bcos they saw financing a competitor to build a coke battery as cutting their own throats. So it's now a poker game ; can CGO find other takers, mb in SA, will that be economical, what will e pricing. Will the Chinese come back to the table once they see CGO has alternatives? Or will local (ahem) politics come into play, via vested interests in the Chinese owned plants, obtaining export licences, etc?

It seems to me these are the questions investors should be asking. CGO aren't saying, mb for unrestandable commercial/political reasons. But that's the poker game, and we ain't got a seat at the table, or even in the balcony.

Imv there are any no of possible outcomes here, from a best case of offtake agreements fallin into place imminiently, to worst case of a politically engineered TO by an existing local company., and lots of other possibilities that would dilute S/holder value.

The best case above may prevail, I hope it does. But too many here are ignoring the risk of less rosy outcomes.

Almost 2 months of stockpiled production now, and no news on
1. Wash plant, scheduled "during Q2"
2. Offtake agreements.

Is no news good, or bad?

https://twitter.com/sportschris/status/1529022795761565699?s=20&t=oMSHJXW2a_jlSNKX9b3Myg

"Audioboom has projected annual revenue of $80m+, and very likely to be $100m+." Gotta source for that? Note below projects $8m EBIDTA for 2023, for a co with a current Mcap of £208m.

https://twitter.com/sportschris/status/1529022795761565699?s=20&t=oMSHJXW2a_jlSNKX9b3Myg

Rachel

The Annual Accounts, and comments therein, should be illuminating, tho we already have the figures from the RNS of 12 May https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PHC/results-for-the-year-ended-31-december-2021-oybq015q2apxzo4.html

That shows operating b/even but an overall loss of $4.6M, with cash @ 31/12/21 of $9.1M. I am comforted by the assertion therein that
"We are confident that Plant Health Care will reach profit within these cash reserves."

Fingers crossed, but PHC does seem atm to be in the right place at the right time.

GG, thanks for correction.

Not so.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TGR/half-yearly-results-my9y11jpykzyzd8.html Half year to 30 .9 21.

But you do, I believe, have a point. HY to 301/9 loss of £1m, but net current assets of c. £9m. But what we DON'T know, is how much of that £9m has been spent on capex, plus another 8 months losses. And that's what we NEED to know.

Not unusual for companies to keep this info to themselves, but punters should be cautious, imv. I have seen no asserttion from the company that it will rewach cash b/even, with self sustaining capex, within existing cash resources.
I would expect that assertion to be made if it were possible to make it, so i have to suspect it is not so.

This will, of course, not be a popular view here in the church of the converted. Dyor and make up your own mind, but remember, cash is king.

Reg
Certainly that is strongly the view of Mr X/Doc. Take him or leave him, he makes good calls and bad ones like all of us, but he's very sure an offtake deal is coming.
I'm not saying there isn't. I'm just saying it's a binary bet atm. You/he think it's a bet worth taking. I'm less sure, that's all.
Different risk perceptions.

Ok, parkeg, up to you.

No cane soul would dispute that Zim is a hugely corrupt place to do business, look at global rankings. https://www.factsinstitute.com/ranking/most-corrupt-countries-in-the-world/

I unblocked you to see that post, in the hope it might be constructive. Mistake. Fi;ltered again.

arkeg

Re yr Wed post.

I'm not saying it's"badly run". Anyone can see that it lacks governance . It shares kleptocractic featires with Russia and many others. .
i suspect the Chinese offtakers/cokers will be well placed to deal with that. Is Carl Esper, or has he been outplayed, is the question to be answered.

Market is in bear mode and any early stage smallcaps with no revenue visibility being punished.

No coal sales till Q3 ; cash currently being spent on wash plant etc. and on costs of production. No visibility on funding for the coking plant, which was to rely on washed coal sales in country for financing.

Oftakers can see the co is in a tight spot ; will it soldier on alone, possibly needing a further raise? Will it be squeezed by the state to somehow share the future golden goose? Or does it have friends(ahem) in high places who can pull levers?

Too many questions, and not enough answers, for me atm. that, I think, is why the SP is being battered.

OTOH, Mr X, alias Doc, is bullish, tweeting that it's back to 10p soon. Does he know something? I reckon not, but.......make your own call.

I can see this going sub 5p, or doubling overnight, big poker games here it seems.

Agreed.
As Flawless posts below, IF an agreement is announced, current sp leaps.
But it appears to be quite an if.
Look, ZIM is not US, EU, or any other well regulated jurisdiction. Ap[art from the normal commercial considerations mentioned here b4, (Chinese users don't want to undercut their own ops) there will be serious vested interests in those existing coking coal companies, and CGO may well have to give away a big pound of flexh to get over that.

Don't underestimate the governance risks here.