Member Info for Genghis15

It transits, tho, en route to Turkey. So there is some sanction risk there, depending on how 3rd party exports are processedthru customs (or not) or how sanctions are written. I am assured by IR, tho, that there is an alternative, oft used, route thru Turkmenistan ; and that Kounrad's position near the Chinese border could also be utilised, tho a different end user would have to be found (by traxcys).

It's been mentioned by a few of the Fintwit crowd ( I only follow a few of them) over the last few days.

The fundamentals, if all goes to plan, make it look incredibly cheap. Execution risk, as ever, tho.

CT
i had a tel conversation today with Louise from IR, which reassured me to a great degree. Nothing of course is 100%, but the availability of the Turkman route, the robust contractual factory gate offtake agreement with Traxcys, the ability to stockpile while still being paid, all reassure me that the risk to the export route is not as significant as I feared, tho not zero either.
i have put my toes in the water, the market for Cu is such that I'm confident that alternative export routes could be put in place

Of course, this depends on Kazahkstan staying out of it.

Thanks for your correction.

But how long would they, could they, continue to do that if they're not selling, and the revenue not coming in? I know they're big boys, and owned by Carlyle Group, but these PE groups hold their cash tightly!

Btw, Ihave emailed IR and got a similar response to yourself. I have asked for further clarification along the lines I was saying earlier, but received no reply as yet.

i am much more relaxed than I was, but these are strange times, to say the least.

I thought this was an investment bb.

the thread below "Share Price" turned into a catfight, allied to political ranting.

There seems to be a schoolboy attitude on thesec bb s that reporting to the mods is somehow running to teacher. It is not. It is all our duties to report these posters to keep bb s fit for purpose.

Just report all these OT posts and get these clowns kicked off.

I they're still here next time I drop in, I'll do it myself, but time presses n me atm.

Thanks

CT
Thanks. Sage advice, and I don't but bb CAN sometimes help....even tho most talk on them is just that.

My only comment is that stockpiles do nit = cash. tho oc they are a store of value once exported.

As you suggest, I will plough my own furrow.

CT
Thanks. But of course if Traxys finds its route closed, it will stop buying. How sure are you of the alternative Turkmenistan route? Was that an assurance from Inv Relations?
Perhaps I should email them myself.

I asked in Jan about the export route, which he BB seems to be ignoring. It seems it goes by rail to Turkey, presumably thru Russia, tho I can find no confirmation. I have no idea if an alternative route exists, or is practical, in the event that route becomes unviable.
This is , surely, the elephant in the room. Can't see anything in co presentations. i sold at 245, and won't be returning until this question is clearer.

Imho this is the time to add, not sell, tho its not my place to advise anyone on their decisions.

NPV of the NSRs is only increasing with time as Motheo gets nearer to production; Cu price will rise from here too imo.

I'm holding. and may add.

"Not an issue. Offtake goes to Turkey"

Check out the map...it doesn't fly there!

Investor/Spike
Thanks 4 replies. Interesting points. i would just observe in reply to "who would be wasting their time signing NDA's and visiting a Data Room if they knew that GBP would not have the PEL extended beyond September 2022 ?", that mb they could peek at the date and STILL wait for expiry. But mb not, I have no experience in these situations.
As for other posters, I have been watchimngGBP for mb 18m now but only drop in on the BB occasionally, s haven't picked up on posting history.
Fwiw i do not currently hold ; unusually for me I have been in and out 3 times ; equally unusually have been on the right side of the trade 3 times to. Normally i am a LTH, not a trader, but after each rise here I get nervous of a fall.

But GL to holders ; if it comes in it will surely multibag. if it doesn't.....

Investoroilgas

Play the ball, not the man.

Is he right, or not? personally, i wouldn't put much store in Italy ; too slow and that ain't changing.
So, licence ; will they extend? Have they done enuff 4 Namib to do so? namib cld relet if obligations not met.
Interested partners will know that and could play hardball over a deal ; OTOH getting in now with GBP rather than competing 4 a licence steals a march on rivals.

Problem is, we don't know.

We just have sit, wait, and see if the company will **** or bust.

Yes, i did some quick sums today, and the value of our SFR holding (net of the collared fin shares) plus eiyjrt the NPR of the capped royalty, OR the other holdings. covers our current Mcap.

So, either the non SFR holdings, or the capped AND uncappedroyalties, are in it at 0 value. And we are getting closer and closer to Motheo production.

At some point there must be a serious leg up here, back to previous highs above 30p, at least.

Thank you all, understood.

Defo something to look forward to, if it confirms anything like what he co is saying, there must surely be a huge rerate here.

Tho it should be borne in mind that CPRs are not always borne out by drilling, of course, so there will remain some grounds 4 caution till a well or 2 proves it up.

I have asked this b4, but will try again,. Can some one point me to where and when the co dvised it was commissioning a CPR, and on what precise aset/acreage?
I have combed twice thru the RNS feed and come up with nothing. It would of course make perfect sense 4 the co to be getting a CPR on the recent discovery ; tho it might also make sense to drill another producer on it first. So where and when did it state a CPR was being done, and what the timescale might be?

fwiw the resturning Doc Holiday podcast wasc very positive on CGO last night. Spoke +vly about it for some time, tho didn't afdress the issues I raise here. seemed to think Carl wasn't +ve enuff in the interview ; the Chinese buyers strike ignored. Seemed, again, that he thought wider issues would mean that one way or another, the mined coal will sell, and cash will come in. Many here here seem to have the same confident overview.
Who knows. I will plough my own furrow, for now.

P79u

https://twitter.com/MlSTER__X/status/1495680380543852544/photo/1

nurse
Mb. But that only moves the problem around. Cash is king ; if you need cash for capex, it costs. Whether a placing, debt, or partnering, it costs, and the cash provider has the whip hand in all cases. It was suposed to come, largely, from cashflow. That now appears unlikely.

Nurse
Mb. But I took the comment to mean that the Chinese companies, now they see us as a competitor, don't wish to help our revenue, and hence path to coke production, in any way, so are non co operative.
Mb conversations can be had, compromises reached. Mb there's an export route. Mb.
But i suspect transporting coal unwashed (2x volume!) is uneconomic over any distance.

As I said, it was a dreadfulpodcast that moved timescales, raised problems, without providing any clear guidance on solutions. My impression was that either CGO id hoping the buyers strike breaks (price concessions? )or stockpiles will build till the coke ovens are ready.
Mb there will be some mutual solution . I'm sure in a many jurisdictions that would involve M&A activity to harvest te clear economies on offer to both parties, and that may apply here, tho it might also come down to who's most in favour with the powers that be,

The point is, we just don't know. It's still quite possible this share will bring it's huge potential upside to fruition. The risks have got greater, tho, at least imv.
But as ever, each must dyor and make your own call.

Fwiw, Mr X/ Doc is still v bullish. imv he's worth listening to. But he would be the 1st to tell you, he's not infallible.

If so, why not say so/ And can some be sold, with no wash plant? I don't know. The podcast sort of said so, but not clearly, and with no numbers. Who buys unwashed coal? the same ppl who are NOT now gonna buy our met coal?

Again, I don't know. Esprey didn'y say, and every time he started to say anything useful the interviewer talked over him. It is quite possible some MIGHT be sold. It's posible other buyers are found for our met caol in Q2. Will it be enuff to pay for capex planned on coking ovens?

I've learnt the hard way on AIM that if the hard questions over cash are not answered, it's most often bcos that answer in unpalatable. Not always. But too often for comfort.