Member Info for Genghis15

"tt has always been my belief that if you don't hold then you don't post "

You need to reassess your beliefs. Why would you think that? Nonsensical ; ppl can have an interest in the co without holding. If you only attend a church of the converted, you get only groupthink.

Why ? i am a former holder who has followed the co since inception. this is a bb, not a fan club.

I suggest listening to views that do not agree with you will contribute more to balanced judgement than only those who agree.

NVG
As I said earlier, my faith in S&S is gone. Its my guess that they are now trapped here as much as shareholders, mb more so. Their credibility rests on WN ; they have little choice but to keep it going in the hope it comes good ; but using investros' money, of course.
No more of mine, tho.

I rather knew my post would attract replies of the sort above. all i can do is invite you to consider the points I make, If you want to ingnore them, and omly look at the upside, fine. You might do very well indeed ; but I fear this saga will run and run, and not end well for shareholders.

if you disagree, well, it's your money.

It's worthless in the ground. You have to assess the chances of it actually getting out. Then assess the time needed, and the risk to your capital for that unknown period of time.
I invite you to think about the points I raise, rather than point out the possible upside IF everything goes well. Remember, these share were 1.4p some years ago when WN first drilled. The track record here ain't great.

I'm afraid I side with persimmon here, tho i would put it in defferent terms.

The review identifies potential, which will need drilling verification, and clearly requires some complex reservoir/drilling mgt to achieve optimum flow.
First, my faith in Rathlin to drill as expected has gone ; huge expectations raised b4 and drills simply don't work as expected.
Second, even if it DOES all work, it will need time, which = $$$s, both for well planning, permitting, and mobilisation. And the mor time lost, the more the climate protesters will grow in their demands to stopnew oil wells.
Thirdly, even if all goes well, and fast, more cash needed. Not ALL from RBD, of course, but most of it. Rathlin doesn't have independent cash ; RBD as main shareholder is on the hook for most of it.

Addd all that up, and today's rise is a selling opportunity, imho.

(btw, and for clarity, I sold out last year @.25. I keep an eye here but have no intention of buying back in or trading. My fath in S&S is gone)

Looking v interesting. The spike on earlier rumour shows how this moves ; could easily attract some speculative $$$ as we await real news anytime soon.
And on +ve news, bagging potential, at least.

Investoroilgas
Exactly.

Few seem to know that, leading to some very misleading conclusions on here!

If you take putup's 2.67, roundbitnupbyo say 3 and x 365 at 55k bpd you get net results not far short of current mcap, at 85 Brent.
Sound investment case, imho.

So, my post deploring ad hominem attacks is met with.....ad hominem attacks.

Only Fatsam really looks at facts ; but even there, only looks at broader issues unrelated to the reservoir/well, which is at the heart of risk here. Look at operational RNSs ; pressure decreasing, bpd decreasing, water cut rising. Next update a week or so away.

As we go thru Q1, i would be very, very, nervous if I still held here. If you do, good luck to you, but I really hope you all understand the risks. It does not appear so.

Well, I drop in 4 the 1st time in a while, and what do I see?

Sad to see ADUk passed away, I must have missed it at the time.

Otherwise, we have new poster Jimmy calling sensible posters children ; irony indeed.

The few posters pnting out the risk here being derided with ad hominem attacks, rather than being engaged with facts.

HUR is doimg well, on the back of PoO, and its looking likely bondholders will get their money, which was inconceivable a year ago.
But a single well in a poorly understood basement reservoir, an increasing water cut and bubble point risks.
Contract uncertainty over the FPSO. Rolling 3 month OGA approvals re production and flaring..
No certainty any well interventions would work even if OGA sanctions it, and uncertain how it would be financed.

Bonkers levels of risk imho. Keep tellin 'em, NGR, but don't expect them to listen.

Redwood is a prat. If you thought otherwise this post proves it. Complete drivel.

No saying what games r afoot here.
Connected to rus/ukr tensions, either as Russia mischief or US designed distraction 4 Putin?
Or simply what it appears?

Either way, other actors will b drawn in.

Likely caml will sail thru it, but unknowable........its looking too risky 4 me atm.

I thought it prudent to bail out at 252 earlier today. I imagine It will pass over soon, but you just never know. Should manage re entry lower later is my bet.

If I'm wrong so be it, but capital preservation comes first. Oh, and second, third, and fourth.

Rev recd post period end but b4 accounts preparation/sign off should be included in the period it relates to. No doubt at all.

"FFS Bartlebobton, are you on the spectrum.?"

"senseman one can only realistically conclude that he is baited by the number of likes you receive,"

I try to keep my posts factual rather than commenting on individual posters, but this is an exception.

The no of likes senseless receives is an indicator that this bb has become a home for those "on the spectrum2, as you put it. Or perhaps just out of their depth, deluded into thinking they understand the stock market, finance, geology or amything else. It is beyond parody to see posts attacking the Bod for and talking professionalism in a manner that ckearly belies their own lack of it.

Instead of attacking Bbton, NGR, and other voices of reason, I suggest the time would be better spent boning up on finance, economics, and markt regulation.

fang
Tbh I don't look in often and haven't seen your prev post. credit to you if you have done detailed analysis of the issues ; my view is based on the high level of uncertainty and risk over the well. If others think that risk worth taking, fine by me. i only post these things when i drop in and see many posters who seem to think the current cash accumulation means this is a low risk, long term prospect.
Even if the bonds are cleared by, say, mid Q1, none of us know what comes next ;. Robert Trice thought he understood basement ; he appears to have been quite wrong. Do the current Bod, or anyone else understand it better? I fear not ; basement granite appears to be terra incognita, unlike carbonate Fb around the world. Will the well continue, decline, or fail? Will there be a credible geo/business plan to resurrect it, and can it be financed? What will be the attitude of the OGA, esp given env concerns over continued flaring? Will BW be happy to extend?

That's a lot of uncertainty,. As long as ppl know its there, fine. Mb it all works out. As someone pointed out buying at or near the lows would have turned out v well indeed, tho (as NGR also points out) that is a fortuitous PoO issue which few foresaw. Mb Poo goes higher. the equation changes.

Most here still missing the elephant in the room.
Whilst+ve that some debt has been repaid, it is beneficial for the co to redeem at less than par, but someone was willing to take the discount. Bcos they still perceive some risk, real or not.

The real issue is the well, which HUR have warned is likely to have serious issues by sometime Q1. So HUR might, just, be debt free at the point production falls away and needs major cash to remedy, if that is even possible.

I just cannot see how the R/R ratio justifies an £86m Mcap.

Don't wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty, and the pig enjoys it.

Attributed to Mark Twain, i believe.

" Is the market still worried about tech issues like the bubble point or water cut"

Of course it is, deluded to think otherwise. repaying debt at even a small discount to par is wise ; but the issue here is uncertainty over how long the well will deliver, and at what rate, into 2022. And then, even if bonds are repaid, how much capex will be needed to restore production by new wells/water injection etc, even if that's deemed feasible, and how will that be financed?

Oh, and then there's the flaring consent, the BW contract....so much uncertainty.