Member Info for Genghis15

senseman
Thanks for putting me straight. Has it occurred to you that at the time the Bod made their plans HUR had no prospect of accumulating anywhere near the cash necessary to pay the bonds ; that's why they were trading at such a discount. And that is ultimately their fireproof defence against any legal action.

Much comment here seems, again, to be missing the point.

This is a RB RNS aimed at his own CA shareholders, so he's bigging up the blame on HUR. Fine, but don't take the threat of litigation seriously ; what saved HUR was Poo, enabling the court challenge to succeedbcos the increased revenuesmade bond repayment a possibility. The former BoD may look monkeys now, but they will have been well aware of their legal and fduiary duties ; if a court action is ever launched, which I doubt, ti's Cos will be very, very, small, and i suspect RB knows it.

The significant part of the RNS is "The Fund notes that Hurricane is evaluating options to bolster production from the Lancaster field, as well as pathways towards development of the substantial Lincoln discovery asset. The Fund believes that in addition to the existing P6 well, substantial quantities of oil can be recovered from the Hurricane portfolio." Now, CA will have its own geos, so they disagree with HUR's.
Now, I don't know who's right ; I'm not a geo, and I don't have the data. But I am concsious that so far, the rservoir is behaving in line with the new HUR model, so i see no reason to think them wrong.

But there is no certainty ; if CA are right, this could multibag if not, it's a dead duck. That is not an investment proposition ; it's a coin toss.

So its a casino cxhare, gents ; place your bets.

https://twitter.com/ReaboldPLC/status/1452583640425287685?s=20

adamant that they are well funded.

First +ve news here for a while, but....

First, 84k is a significant sum even to relatively wealthy ppl and I can't believe they would buy if not convinced that WN is what they have been saying it is. So, imho, it shows directors backing their convictions with cash.
Secondly, it would seem very odd to buy now if a discounted raise was anywhere close, so mb it isn't. But strange things happen.

i think we can take fom the above that S&S have complete faith in their reservoir modelling.

So the question for the rest of us, must be how far do we trust their judgement? Given that so far, neither Wick, Colter, Cali or Parta have delivered, and that for all their confidence we still have no flow test from WN, I'd uggest it would be fair to have some doubts.

NGR1616

" I listened to someone I ended up trusting when initially I thought the same of him as you do of me"

i guess you mean the guy posting on TLF?

Interesting.

If i can sum up the replies to my post, I am accused of bitterness, deramping, and negativity, not to mention sensemans childish name calling . Not one reply has addressed the points I made ; those who did manage to remain factual focused on ST cash and past court actions.

Wrll, don't worry, I won't trouble you all much longer, but most replies have perfectly illustrated my OP by allowing emotion and unfounded certainty to reinforce, rather than question, what should be a cold blooded investment decision.
And not one reply addressed the reservoir and future capex issues which will have to be addressed in 2022.

You are doing it again. Please address the points I raise, and leave emotion and name calling at the door.

So, it seems sensemans rant has got my Op and thread deleted. I'll just repost my reply, not my OP, and let's see if anyone can argue sensibly that it is incorrect.

i never denied the possibility of ST speculative gain here ; but since shortly b4 RT's ousting there has simply not been a LT investment case here, simple as that. The Poo has dug them out of the bondholder hole, but they still have a single well in a reservoir is not thought to have much life left.
To get more oil - if indeed it id there commercially - will require further large sums. (several hundred$Ms) to drill, tieback new wells, a gas export line, and a new deal with Bluewater ; all to drill into unproven reservoirs that may be very shortlived.. Not to mention approval from a sceptical OGA.

I'm sorry if that is not clear, but it is from the company's own RNSs, tho my words. Or you can read the article in todays IC, which essentially says the same thing. https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2021/10/15/hurricane-energy-saved-by-energy-prices/

This is what prompts my first comment ; many here are not listening to the BoD, the investment professionals, nor to the few industry professionals like NGR1616. They are bamboozling themselves, and seeing only what they want to see.

Cimney, if you don't like what i say, filter me. It's your loss.

I welcome any constructive, factual, posts that disagree with me ; that is how we learn. I commend the approach to you.

So, the start of the fire sale. Good moves, but make no mistake that's what it is.

Only question is when can they cash out the shares, and will it be soon enuff to avoid a raise?

Always focus on cash.

the Bod cannot plan new drills till it knows it can clear debt, and will not be abnle to raisec new debt until it has done so. In the meantime, the reservoir must perform. Only then can they plan 4 the future.

It's no good railing at the Bod. The problem here is the reservoir.

Note the careful wording ; " fully funded for all of its upcoming work programme requirements." Som current well is funded, of course.
What next, tho? The project needs more drills to progress, and that will need more money. And when will the next drill be?

Smoke and mirrors. Where will rathlin get cash, if not from its largest shareholder, and it would constitute dilution if it did. Money is not magicked into existence ; ownership comes with obligations.

Thjis is good news, in a way, bcos it means S&S are finally trying to get some cash in without another raise. But it also indicates the position they are in, I think ; to date they have preferredto raise and cary onrather than sell assets. Imv this sale is forced by the difficulty of raising their share of costs for Victory, never mind Corallian's other assets.

But the sale will not bring in cash tomorrow, so the other big question is, how much cash does RBD have, and how much do they need in the next, say. 3 months to meet obligations on progressing WN, Parta, or anything else?

So, what's next? as i see it there are 3 possibiities ;

1 Corallian fast sale gets them off the hook
2. sale of other assets....parta, calti..if buyers can be found. Or even....a % of WN, which if a buyer could be found, would also reduce RBD's share of costs.

Any other views welcome, but plaease don'e say they are Fully funded. Bcos i just dont thimk that plausible.
3. Rise and be damned, if they can, and plough on.

An interesting presentation. seems we're nailed on for a 10 bager next year! Yeah, right. This was James Parsons (SOU) on steroids.

It DOES look promising, but I would like to know just how they can have a "capital light" model which needs little funding to magic up the goods, but no one else can.

Quite right. And i am normally v reluctant to pan Bods ; in buying shares you show trust in them, so losing confidence in t5hem means you made a mistake of judgement yourself. But that's life, and (sh)it happens.

And it seems to have happened here, as i posted on thirsday , project selection and execution have been dire evidenced by a fall in Sp from a 1.4p peak to a diluted 0.15. So S&S must take the can, if they performed like this at a fund manager they would have no funds left to invest.

schlemiel
It means that any further develiopment needs a fgas export solution, unless the OGA permit flaring (unlikely imv). So any development would have to justify the costs of such.

Rodney
It is not impossible, but seems to me well behaviour to date is still consistent with the new model. If that were to change, and we reverted to RT's original "perched water" theory, then the sky's the limit. Seems a vanishingly small prospect, imv, but ......

Can you share your calcs on that?

NGR1616
I feel you are too quick to mollify your detractors. I didn't see your earlier posts as I don't drop in much, but from this thread it doesn't look like you, or I, got much wrong at 0.7p except PoO. It's the rise in PoO which has completely changed the outlook for bond repayment, together with the minority of bondholders who must now be kicking themselves for accepting a reduced price in settlement.

PoO has given a prospect of repaying the bonds on time, or near enuff that finance can be secured. So far, so good.

What has NOT happened, as you point out, is any significant improvement in reservoir prospects. It is still quite possible that by June 2022, say, there is enuff cash to repay bonds, meet decomm liabilities, but not much else ; and at the same time the reservoir may start to flow less, or not at all. So, Bluewater permitting, the co may then have to decide to raise more cash (if it can) to drill another potentially producing well if it judges that viable, and if OGA permit. Then there's still the question of the extended flaring permit, and a gas solution if a Lincoln well is pursued. Rather too many ifs there for me.

So, a great ST victory for any who bought in low ; a small recovery for those who held pre 2020 ; and who knows, if Poo keeps climbing SP could even go higher ST. But reservoir issues mean still little prospect of LT gain from here, and still downside risk, imho. DYOR, of course, and take your own view, but that, fwiw, is mine.