Member Info for Genghis15

Manwell
Yes, there is something in what you say ; but there is no compulsion on UJO to do the deal; If the timing doesn't suit, they can play hardball and risk losing it ; or they can assess the balance of SP risk and raise now,.

That they have chosen the latter does not sit well with me, tho that is largely a matter 4 UJO holders. But there is an indirect read across, i that it does not display the sort of huge confidence in WN that DB effuses publicly.

I'm afraid my confidence in S&S is gone. Leaving aside previous failures at Colter and Wick, there isd still considerable uncertainty ove Romania, and WN is yet to convincingly flow. All now rests on the ongoing WNS well test, .

Many here (including, previously, myself) have inho been rather dazzled by the success of last year's deviated well, with Hc columns, porosity, gas shjows, oil, etc. But the fact remains that recovering oil or gas to surface is not the same as a well test. We had first the wrong kit bcos oil was not foreseen. then the well was damaged. Now we return to WNA and it's **** or bust. DB at UJO seeking a raise (and leaking, AGAIN!) does not, imv, demonstrate great faith in WNA.
If we get a stonking flow, game on. Neither Rathlin nor S&s have a good record, tho, and the downside is a SP death spiral as the begging bowl comes out.
And let's not forget, either, that as time passes onshore HC development will become more and more difficult politically, The longer this drags on, the less likely it is to ever get out of the ground, even if it does flow. Time was always of the essence here, and the combo of Covid and operational mishaps/geological problems has robbed much of it.

So, the UJO placing plan confirmed, tho not yet finalised. no mention of intended timing.

Whilst there is no direct read across to RBD, it must raise a few doubts over DB's confidence in WN ; why raise pre test at this level, whatever the intended use of the cash? And are S&S thinking similarly? The risk/reward of holding here is shifting underfoot, imho.

Watts, the reason this bb gets few serious posts are the 5th form squabblers who think its their FB page. Poist something relevant to the RBD investment case.

i see rumours of a placing on UJO bb, I stress only rumours. But given the history it would not be surprising. And as persimmon has pointed out (as always, in the most smug and irritating way possible) RBD are quite likely to be nearing that point, too.

So it is a very nervy time to be a holder here.

First, is WNa going to flow ? It's taking time.
Second, at what point do they raise? After a +ve WNA, ok, into strength. But if WNa has ANY problems whatever, a forced raise could be at low levels, and very dilutive indeed.

As i say, a very nervous time here now. If WNA is anything short of a riosnorting success, shareholders are in for a shafting, imho. As ever, dyor, but that's my take on it.

Impossible to be sure, but fwiw I rewad it that TGR is one of his top picks, doubt he is the seller.

RBD, not RNB

Unabashed
Ignore the trolls.

The only clear statement of cash runway came in the Annual Report RNS, which said RNB is funded "for all planned activities in 2021".
Some seem not to have noticed, but we are already nearing end Q3, and the WNB drill overran with presumably addnl costs.
I do not expect a placing just yet, but will be surprised if there isn't one b4 Xmas. Holders must hope that by then a WN drill has propellled the SP to a decent level.

The fact is that RBD's varous projects are not coming in as planned.

Cali was always a distraction. Corallian have failed at every turn. Romania is still problematic. And at WN, which I have no doubt to be a viable sizeable gas field, this drill has been screwed up with what looks like an overbalanced entry. we don't yet know if it's failed to find oil, or gas for that matter. We do know HCs have flowed, just not how much. We could yet be in for a very +ve surprise, but it's a very nervy time.
I rather lost faith in S&S a while back, but WN still looked a game changer. It still may be, but.......

GG, Jing, thanks, understood.

"Jingall66
Perhaps will drop to the issue price? 1.03?"

The last raise in April was at 90p. Lookin like that's where the next one will be, too. I am very positive on this co, but have been nervous of another raise for some time. The results RNS could have calmed my fears with a clear statement on the cash position, both y/e and current, and a clear statement on the cash runway.
It avoided all of those, saying only "The Company remains on track and with its recent capital raise of £10 million in April 2021, is in a sound financial position to deliver on the current phase under its medium-term development plan which will see its production capacity in Madagascar increased up to 12,000 tpa in the immediate term and up to 30,000 tpa in the next financial year (see RNS dated 16 April 2021)"
Now that is not unsual in early stage miners/producers. But it falls short of saying "we have enough cash to deliver ..the current phase".

I know saying this is not popular ; and who knows, it may not happen. But I fear a raise (inevitable at some stage, of course) may be closer than some think.

Very selective figures. Good as far as they go, but why no net figures, y/e and current cash?

https://twitter.com/Ophidian18/status/1429370544533786627?s=20

Looking at the stone here it doesn't look to me that it could be cut into a particularly lage single item, nbut i am no expert..

https://twitter.com/_BlueRock/status/1427229440384319488?s=20

Bmeister
Agree. i was losing faith here with the delays/overruns/placings, but much more comfortable now that I will see a decent return here b4 too much longer.

Yes, they did ; but there is no evidence theat HUr/Spirit were committing to it anyway. And if the OGA are saying no, well....I'm afrais that's final.

It ain't gonna flow, at least not for a long time. I'm afraid what e have here is a co that eats capex faster than it generates income ; that's why the EIB agreed a 50% w/down of its debt.

There really is some nonsense on here these days. Lincoln was not "only" £150m tieback. It also required a LT gas solution for both fields. It was also, as NGR says sub optimal, tho the etails elude me now ; I do remember clearly it was a disappointment.

Also, that gas solution requirements has not gone away. How long do you thing the OGA is going to permit flaring post COP26? a year, 2 years? If Lancaster can't justify a gas solution by then, its finished, even if )and its a significant if) the well continues to perform.

There really is some nonsense on here these days. Lincoln was not "only" £150m tieback. It also required a LT gas solution for both fields. It was also, as NGR says sub optimal, tho the etails elude me now ; I do remember clearly it was a disappointment.

Also, that gas solution requirements has not gone away. How long do you thing the OGA is going to permit flaring post COP26? a year, 2 years? If Lancaster can't justify a gas solution by then, its finished, even if )and its a significant if) the well continues to perform.

Good points, J, m hought is that they just wouldn't want MTR's other baggage. But there are ways to deal with that, of course.

Anyways, more than one way to skin the cat, and I'm sure SFR will look at the ; and agree SFR themselves look vulnerable.