Member Info for Genghis15

Don't wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty, and the pig enjoys it.

Attributed to Mark Twain, i believe.

" Is the market still worried about tech issues like the bubble point or water cut"

Of course it is, deluded to think otherwise. repaying debt at even a small discount to par is wise ; but the issue here is uncertainty over how long the well will deliver, and at what rate, into 2022. And then, even if bonds are repaid, how much capex will be needed to restore production by new wells/water injection etc, even if that's deemed feasible, and how will that be financed?

Oh, and then there's the flaring consent, the BW contract....so much uncertainty.

ST on hols till January, and he will have a lot to catch up on.
Expect him to follow up on this by end Jan, tho.

Supposing you outline for me a scenario where that happens?

I confess to not deeply researching, but from what I've seen the plugging costs are not a mojor concern. For me the concern is over exposure to interest rates, and the impact of a rate rise on what i think is mostly LIBOr or similar linked debt. Again, happy to be corrected.

I'll try, (no promises tho!) not to come here too often while I'm out, cos i don't want to become too much of an irritant.
But I will congratulate the BB, pleasure to post contrary views here and not get the flood of abuse some bbs generate.

GLA

Misleading headline. Nowhere did he say that offtakers would finance the mine, just that they would seek one that helped to do so. Confess I'm a tad releived, really, cos if he'd been able to announce, or even indicate, that such low dilution finance was in place, the SP would certainly have responded.

As it is, I don't think there is a "news rich" period coming until February, at the earliest, and we all know that timelines tend to slip even with the best cos/projects. I'll be surprised if both ML and finance don't follow the same path.
So whilst I wish LT holders well, it looks like my decision to stay out for a while may be the right one. Fingers xd, next trick will be timing re entry!

If not, you all have my full permission to gloat at my misjudgement, ......

Well, I bought a chunk at 37p+, enuff to cover my loss and make a small overall profit at 42p. Clearly shoulda bought more!

Most of the above posts ignore that OPEC+ is already showing remarkable resstraint and solidity in keeping c. 5. bd off the market. Not only will they e reluctant to back away from scheduled increases, but many will be looking to maximise production, and their own shares, as we go into 2022. OPEC's current solidarity/restraint is not to be taken for granted for too long.

Paul
yes, wider mkt concerns i think. In the 18 month lockdown market this would be a firm hold for sure. But current AIM mkt is just so prone to downward drift, and rises hard to come by without firm news. As I say, we'll see.....I could be on the wrong side of this, but just cautious atm.

Paul
"I don't know where the 'talk of a placement' originates, apart from a couple of people on here"

Yes, including this from BBB Tue
"I wrote to the company a few months back asking about capex and they replied saying they expected it to be a mix of debt & equity but weren't sure at that point of what the mix would be."

But we don't need it spelling out, do we?

Mine finance will be needed, offtakers MAY provide some, but there will have to be debt or equity, and debt funders will want to see an equity component. Barring a very favourable farm in or TO ( can't be ruled out) there will be a raise at some point.
But when, who knows ; quite possible price goes higher b4 then on news. But I've chosen to be out. We'll see....

Out too. Long news free period ahead, current AIM listless likely to mean a drift down.
And....talk of partnering, offtake finance, is all v well, but debt/equity will be needed too.

I may be back at that point, but much happier to be out for now.

HL inform me this is bcos they have not provided rekevant info on cocts and fees.

"£5mil this is priced to fail " Not quite.. failure would likely see the sp even lower. But the SP is where it isbcos there are significant riska that
1 Oil is not found
2.Farmonee is not forthcoming

What are the odds?

None of us know. Huge upside here. but a pure gamble.

Be careful what you read into this, contracts have break clauses, etc.

Unrest at RB's stewardship, perhaps?

as in my previous, agree tax losses are key, and may be the lions share of any value here. Be careful of assessing value, tho, as a time discounted model would apply.

i should add that my guess, and it is only that, is that any future may depend on a clever corporate action that creates a vehicle enabklin another entity to some how take advantage of at least some of the accrued tax losses, before the climate lobby pressures the phase out of such. In part, they will already be somewhat ring fenced, i suspect, anyway, but I'm guessing they will be key to any financial solution, However, the main challenge first is the geo/technical solution, if there is one..

Negatives
Bubble point looming closer than prev guidance
water cut increasing
Positives
Bod says it is engagingw B/water to extend FPSO contract, indicating that they must have a plan 4 addressing the bubble point issue.

So, where does that leave HUR/

First, cash; 99m at 31/10, with 152m CB ue june. Production might reduce/stop early in 2022, spo no certainty of ability to repay bond w/out someaction to enable further production.
BUT....HUR would not be negotiating with BW if that was not a realistic option. How much would i cost/ At what cost could the CBs be refinanced? How long would any production extension last?

Without answers to all these questions, and more, (which will be being asked by financiers atm) it is impossible to assess an investment case here.

So dyor, believe whatever you like, but imv you might as well stick a pin in the racing pages. Until the BOD RNss a plan that addresses all this, there is no way to know what HUR is worth.

Apologies, i somehow missed the 17/9 RNS, which I will scrutinise. So we have figures to 31 March, unsurprisingly showing a net loss. However it would be good to see prelims for the half to 30 Sept asap. Some positive nos there would go a long way to stopping the SP slide, imv.