Member Info for Genghis15

Cebo, yes, mb it is Worst case I'm painting ; but seems to me both the Co, and the OGa, see it as quite a high risk possibility.
The fact is none of us know whe it will happen ; nor do we know if it will be either technically feasible, permitted by OGA (remember flaring consents!) or economic at a reasonable Poo projection, to restore production from a highly uncertain reservoir.
So yes, by June it looks likely the co will be debt free, decomms provided for, and may even have spare cash. Will they still have a producing well? A FPSO contract? OGA consent? That's a lot of uncertainty to be risking mney on, imv.

As I said, GL to all those invested. Just know the risks.

And, btw, as a general observation, it is easy to forget that the old BoD , whatever faults it may have had, did not know when it painted the scenario of bond default that Poo would go from $35 to $90. the bond default has been avoided only bcos the rise in Poo filled the coffers. I doubt they would have rowed back on that without the CA action ; but only the rise in Poo made it possible.

prple
Almost everything you say is not so. They will NOT be washing coal until Q2, clearly stated. Unclear if any can be sold in Q2.
they will NOT be turning it into coke until Y/E, at least.
They MIGHT be turning it into coking coal after Q2, but it is unclear if the Chinese are staging a buyers strike now CGO plans to compete with them by making coke later in the year. And if they is a buyers strike, how long will they keep it up, and will it extend, eventually, to our coke in 2023?
What alternatives are available, export routesetc, mb to SA ?

These are the issues the podcast should have addressed. Instead, after waffling thru the news that coal may be stockpiled for much of the year, no clarity on how / when sales will begin, nor on how a likely funding gap may be addressed.

Imv, this has gone instantly from an assured cash cow with first revenues weeks away, to yet another cash hungry miner for another 6 months or so.

Now, of course, there is always the possibility that having dropped our Mcap by creating this situation, a bidder scoops us up on the cheap. But otherwise, there is now a risk that cash will be needed b4 Y/E.

I wish all holders here well, but it seems most think future production a given.

The risks have been well flagged by the co, 4 which they gety only abuse from most on here. Production past buble poit, WC rising, and a rolling 3 month permit only from OGA as they monitor GOR etc. So we have a Mcap of £160m for a co whose sole well could fail at any time. reasonable/?

Make your own call. But just be aware of the risk.

I think your analysis mb right. It was a dreadful podcast, wuth the interviewer overtalking and failing to draw out the specifics around cashflow ; several times when Carl seemed to be getting to the point the interviewer then talked over him, doing mental arithmetic out loud and not nailing down anticipated sales and timelines.
Note to carl Esprey ; do your next podcast with Katy Pilbeam or Sarah Lowther.

It is not entirely clear whether there will be significant cashflow b4 the coke batteries are built ; but certainly the wash plant is now slated for Q2, 3 montha later than anticipated.

There's still huge potential upside here, but shifting timescales mean both a longer wait, and the chance of a raise later in the year. (tho a Mali disposal might just avoid it? But these things normally take a long time ).

I have halved my position, but will hold the rest, bcos there may be scope for +ve cashflow surprises along the way.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/02/07/targeting-high-yielding-property-to-hedge-off-inflation-risk/

Statement re Share Price



Contango Holdings Plc, the London listed natural resource development company developing the Lubu Coking Coal Project in Zimbabwe and the Garalo-Ntiela Gold Project in Mali, has noted today's share price movement and speculation of an imminent capital raise. The Company would like to advise shareholders that it is not contemplating a capital raise and remains fully funded to bring the Lubu Coking Coal Project into production by the end of the current quarter, following the previously announced £2.5 million placing in November 2021 (see RNS dated 18 November 2021 for further information).

Your post yesterday below has slipped down the thread, as has my subsequent question, so a new thread...
"On trends by July 2022 (6 months from now) BHP will be circa 1558psi, BOPD c. 7545 and WC c. 49%

Certainly not the end of the world assuming there are no other external factors such as the impact of reaching the bubble point as yet undefined, an ESP failure (which would still allow for some natural flow) or AM contract not being extended.

My concern is still around the GOR which does increase exponentially once the bubble point is passed. The steady decrease in production could mitigate for some of the increased gas and indeed liberated gas could provide some additional natural lift. I'm not expanding on this (pardon the pun) further without more without data on flaring and consents."

"on trend".....yes, fair enuff, but can we rely on trend?

i have no expertise jhere, but my understanding was that oce past bubble point, gas issues could stop or severely limit production. Similarly, that steady rise in WC , again, could jump unpredictably. Those are the messages I took from previous co RNSs regarding the new reservoir model.

NGR1616
"on trend".....yes, fair enuff, but can we rely on trend?

i have no expertise jhere, but my understanding was that oce past bubble point, gas issues could stop or severely limit production. Similarly, that steady rise in WC , again, could jump unpredictably. Those are the messages I took from previous co RNSs regarding the new reservoir model.

Bcos I assumed, from thev no of references to an imminent CPR, that the co had announced it publicly somewhere. SO I'm looking for that announcement. Where is it?

Surely not confined to those few who have emailed to ask, that would be well out of order.

Tx, but this bb is full of assertions like that ; i am trying to find where the co has stated they are doing a CPR, and what the timeline is?

What's the expected timescale on this, and why? Looking thru RNSs I see no reference to it, should I be looking elsewhere?

I confess I don't know the precise terms of the possible extension, nor what pressures there mb on Namib govt to do so.

But in straight negotiating terms, needing a FO to meet terms must put BP in a pretty weak neg position. Only someone from a major oilci contract/legal dept is going to know the ropes here, and I don't ; I suspect no one else here does either?

i guess there ARE reasons to farm in, if only to get in ahead of any competition. but I suspect GBP's apparent weak hand might mean a really hefty dilution.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/02/07/targeting-high-yielding-property-to-hedge-off-inflation-risk/?xnpe_tifc=bfeNh.ssbIxj4FH84.sLxMpsafeWaeiWhFWDEkUdhfJLau81qfJLRfXcbdiArFYXb.ELxFeNx.zl4Do7xI_T&utm_source=exponea&utm_campaign=Investment%20Daily%20Email%2008%20Feb%202022&utm_medium=email

I refer you to Phoebus' posts earlier. 3 basins away.
And...being in the same basin is not in itself a guaratee, either. But let's agree that isencouraging that Shell have found a working petroleum system. That we know.

We DON'T know how much ; we DON'T know what flow rates might be anticipated ; we DON'T know if it will be commercially viable. Just pointing out that anything not in the RNS is speculation, much of it (as in Spike's take on the Ministerial statement) having a strong whiff of wishful thinking about it.

Plenty of confirmed flowing, oil within 1000km of me, here in the New Forest. No one's clamouring to drill on my garden, tho. Perspective. 1000km is a LONG way.

"they will get extensions if they get a farm out"

Ok. I don't normally denigrate other posters, but tbh that is both stating the obvious, and a dumb response.

The whole effin point here is that FO is a BIG if. And any farminee knows GBP's position, and, unless there's multiple bidders, can play hardball.

In the absence of this fairy godmother, GBP either have to raise, or most likely lose the licence.

So let's again stress what's at play here.
IF a FO happens, there's a huge potential resource, BUT any FO will be at a massive dilutio of GBP's interest. But likely still leaves room 4 considerabl
e SP upside.
If it doesn't happen, SP will tank.

That's the gamble here. Yes, mb a good spike if Venus is a gusher. But then basics reassert. It's a **** or bust share, simples.

Whilst I agree there is great fwd looking cash generation, b4 getting TOO carried away, consider jurisdictional risk. Either thru legit govt intervention (taxes, royalties), or more shady means, the govt/rulers will have their paws in the till in some way if they see profits looking too juicy.

ST, tho, all is looking good.
I'm hopinf for 15 to 20p by April, mb June.

When making attemptee valuations I would be VERY wary of ascribing ANY value to coal in the ground. Value on annual production/net profit overthe next c. 10 years.

Sooner or later, coal in the ground will stay there ; . ST, there is no alternative to met coal. But it will come, at which point coal in the ground will be a stranded asset, imv.

Btw, I believe in the story here, and am invested. Great cashflow to come. just don't bet on exploiting all that Bn tonnes of "resource".

PaulFG
"I don't think he mentioned share placing or equity"

They never do......would YOU flag it to the market and put the SP into a doom loop?

Encouraged by director buys here. The investmet case is unchanged from when the SP was 30p, with the stakes in SFR, Cobre, Trident et al backing the SP with the NSRs in for free.
With SFR now completing its Spanish acquision, the director buys, and ongoing construction at Motheo bringing the royalty stream closer by the day, I should expect to see some +ve SP movement soon. I'd also expect another ST article b4 much longer, which always helps.