Member Info for BB_hoppa

My read of the SP rise this week is the primary broker(s) taking advantage of the dry order book. They were able to drive the SP up with minimal gunpowder (5-10k buys early in the week and 50k buys yesterday and today) to later sell at a favourable level. Which they just did in 2 lots in the past 30 mins, causing the SP to drop from 68 to 66 now.

Don't get me wrong I'm delighted to see the SP, but just a word of caution don't get too disappointed on retrenchment to high-50s next.

The bigger picture remains the same. On Shenandoah 1st oil I expect we'll see 70+, on Insurance payment confirmation (fingers crossed) we may see 80p, then it's end of summer and we're in the FID territory. I'm guessing we'll see a giant spike to £2 once that happens.

I'll finish by saying I also assign a 25% chance for a real black horse event prior to FID. Something like BP coming on board as co-investor (no insiders absolutely not, but we know publicly they are looking in general).

More like a 10-year high.. Last seen in July 2015, if I'm not mistaken.

One of the first things I was thought as a young banker back in the 90s.... "Insurance is never an insurance". Have then witnessed the reality of it play out many times over the years.

The insurance firms business model is partly built on finding a way to avoid honouring claims. I sincerely hope I'm wrong in this one instance.

I know this won't be a popular post but I was hoping for some financing-related uncertainty so I could top up.. I'm eyeing mid-30s and if we'll need a RI that's the level where it'll be imo..

Hormuz closure won't happen. It's not even in Iran's agenda.

Bloomberg anchors: “Market is saying nothing to see here”.

Correct!

Based on the US strike which was literally scripted on a Hollywood movie, it's very difficult to be in the "markets are complacent" camp. The strike was a show that fitted all relevant actors' domestic agendas.

Israel: look the US is with us ✅

Trump: look we're still relevant (and as promised no US soldier died) ✅

Iran: ha-ha didn't hurt didn't hurt ✅

Russia: nice higher oil prices ✅

China: no disruption to energy flows (and no need to engage in high-stakes geopolitics away from home) ✅

So it's understandable that the markets price oil at 75-76$ (about 5 bucks each of re-established geopolitical risk and a loss of 1-1.5 mmbpd of production at risk). There's no regime change, no invasion, no protracted war, no oil disruption. We can safely stop drooling on the prospect of 3-digit Brent on Hormuz closure.

Brent went as low as -4% just now.. When I see such strong "market consensus" which comes across so counter-intuitive, I pause. The contrarian trader in me screams long long long...

Is it just me?

Final chance to scoop some RKH (in the 50p range) before the following announcements start coming one after the other:

- Announcement that the bank funding for Sea Lion FID is in place (now that the OM issue is behind us, banks will not take long to close a deal with Rockhopper).

- Announcement of the same by Navitas.

- Announcement of the FID (September imo).

BB

News of the OM Award had become immaterial the moment the insurance was put in place. Today's annulment news will have zero impact on the SP. Unlike some trigger-happy amateur short sellers, the market is wise. In fact I believe the SP will go up from here.

40.85!!

Astonishingly, RKH is the one green item in my otherwise sea or red portfolio! And luckily I'm heavily overweight on RKH :) Not for a second have I thought of selling during these crisis days. Only gutted I didn't have dry powder to acquire more RKH at 35-36 levels this morning.

Thanks to veteran posters here who kept an eye on things. we know the SP is going up steadily and it's likely stake-building by one party, and an orderly one.

It must be insiders close to Navitas and it must be due to knowledge of a Q1 FID. Otherwise OM etc don't justify such a sustained purchase. I also observe the buyer alternates - one day heavier morning buys and next day near-close-time buys.

Just got quoted £0.38 for 200k sell.

Not sold, of course ;)

Yes D, I share the sentiment. As I posted here before I can see the SP do a 2022-covide-era-style frenzy here.. Hydrocarbons have been ostracised by the climate loons for some time now. When's the last time we saw an oil discovery story?

This, is it. I expect the SP to do crazy things on announcement of:

- FID

- External (3rd party) interest for partnership

- OM cash-in

- Broker upgrades

- First Oil

But especially FID. We'll see crazy things here!

Just tested this yes, got quoted 35p for 80k SELL 10:12am.

Didn't sell. In fact I intend to top up at every ~5% daily sp drop but from here it's looking increasingly unlikely (e.g last Friday I tried at 32.90 but got quoted 33.80, then close was mid 34s)

That's purely speculative/sentimental of course. No new material information to go on. But the combination of lack-of-new-info and the steady flow of new buys (modest 20-10k lots), is absolutely what a small investor like me wants to see. On top of it we know institutional interest is around the corner. Great mix!

I no longer lose sleep over Argentina's territorıal claims on F/I. Javier Milei is openly aligned with Trump and Israel (again openly). With the state of business in the UK in mind, if I were an islander I wouldn't regard rapprochement with Argentina as a bad thing. Argentina is now the laissez-fair economy versus the socialist Britain of Starmer and the WEF.

Already 30p+ this morning, I may have been conservative with my end-Jan 50p target!!

Though one thing I know I'm definitely right: things will move fast here... The FID etc, these are matters for long-term holder institutionals... For us mere mortals, share-dealing 101: buy expectations sell realisations.

Reminiscent of the Covid-era hodl penny shares this will hit insane levels first, retreat to fundementals-driven sane levels later. 200p this year I'm quite optimistic.

As its surrounding factors* are moving fast the RKH share has been bid for a sustained period now. Obvious shortage of sellers as evidenced by the exploding SP. There is nothing atm to stop the share from remaining bid. I expect the SP to jump from here to 50p very fast (by end of Jan), then correct and resume, again correct and resume.. Also along the way geopolitical developments may make the SP spike.

When the FID is close, the news of its anticipation will flood the press. At that point I expect to see 3-digit prices.

So, buckle up!

(*) Navitas committed to FID asap in 2025,

Politics (the weak UK gov't versus Falklands, Argentina, Trump) aligned in favour of Sea Lion exploration,

Brent outlook balanced for the FY ahead (e.g. US WTI bullish due to declining reserves but cautious given Trump's drill baby drill policies)

Geopolitical risks that point to energy (oil) security as a problem,

Reshuffling (if not entire revamp) of the world's trade regime to increase not decrease the importance of oil wells in the short-to-medium run.

Finally on the most important aspect, China: More likely than not Trump will cut a deal with them. China will keep growing and demanding more energy.

Hi, I've been following the board for over 5 years now. This is my first post!

I hold 1.2m shares in my SIPP. YE2025 view:

1) zero - as we are likely to be taken over as soon as insiders know the FID is coming. Btw I'd expect that offer to be north of 100p for sure. Let's see.

2) Absolute mania reminiscent of the covid era craze around Gamestop, BBB etc. We will see 200+ during the year. Year-end total guess 125p.

Either way DO NOT sell and try to top up on any dips of 5%+

happy NY!