Member Info for BB_hoppa

I refer to the price action the last 5-10 days (and before that, the sustained support in the 60p's since early July):

Looks like we'll get to £1 well ahead of FID.

Don't want to jinx it but seems kinda obvious to me... 7 September Navitas GM is eyed not just by us mere mortals but surely the pro IIs. Their hands will be on the buzzers come 8:01 am 8/9.

Hi, I'm writing because I am seriously considering a buy-in here. I'm hoping someone well-initiated in TLW's case would help me skip the tedious work of reading the board history.

What is the investment case (at 10p) here? Why is it a buy?

Where should the SP be by year-end? What are the main milestones ahead?

If I go in with say £100k, is there enough daily volume for trading that kind of stake?

many thanks in advance

Come on! We're doing this!

Hope I'm not misleading anyone but this is where I went:

https://www.rockhopper-shares.com/welcome

register here and can then access the account to submit your proxy vote electronically on here.

"You will need your Investor Code for this step - you can find this on recent communications such as dividend confirmations or your share certificate. It is up to 11 digits long."

About to do the same with my 1m+

Looks like we'll be testing 80p this week (albeit on low volume). Judging by how few sellers there have been for many months now, I have every confidence we'll get to the critical 8 September date above the 80p mark. Assuming Navitas GM produced the thumbs up, we should see some more IIs jump in and push this to £1 that week. Though at the psychological £1 mark I expect there will be many sellers. I think we'll then settle in the 85-90p range in the period up to the actual FID announcement. On FID I expect we'll see 120p, a quick retreat (profit-takers) and then the smal-investor frenzy (tabloid share-toips etc) should kick in. From there it's anyone's guess. Mine is we'll briefly see £2 this year.

I see no need to caveat the above scenario. We all know the timetable and the (known) risk factors.

I like your sell strategy Silverfoil. Though in the case of RKH I am not exiting if I can help it. My objective is to attain 0.5 to 1% ownership and pass it on to my family so they can collect the divvies and give a little thanks to my memory once a year.

At 70p my personal rule to top up at every 5%+ retreat will have been triggered. One’s gotta put his money where his mouth is. Just need to come up with the funds though, a minor detail 😅

The slide in the SP annoys me. Low volume slide indicative of zero retail interest in the share. And they say the markets are rational🙄

Anyone here thinks Tullow could be the next play for them? Seems the SP bottomed out at 9-10p mark, awaiting the debt structuring.. Reminds me of Premier (where I lost money in the end) but I'm keeping an eye on it.

PS I post this here because I value the opinions of posters on this board. The TLW board in comparison is poor.

I more than agree with the benefits side of your argument. There should be ZERO benefits. But at the same time I'd like to pay no tax if I can help it.

I'm sure you'll see matters very differently when Labour come for your SIPP/ISA.

I don't get those who are trying to trade or short this tbh... The wide bid/ask spread and the still low volume (~2m avg) make it very very difficult to trade RKH, especially for those who hold 500k+ shares. That said, there is a case for selling around the FID announcement to buy back 15-20% cheaper once the exiters have executed their trades.

I take this chance to reiterate my HOLD stance. I also see any meaningful SP retreat (10-15% lower) if any, as a top-up opportunity. I have a true long-term conviction for crude. I'm in RKH for my children. Want to see them collect the dividends.

Also been reading the Argentina discussions here.. People say silly things as they don't understand that Milei is the opposite of blindly-nationalist. Sea Lion does not have an Argentina risk factor so long as Milei is in power. It has a UK one however. The UK government is textbook socialist and outright dangerous. I'm sure you've read the news that tens of thousands of millionaires have left the country. That's a serious risk for us. I pray Trump and/or Vance are still in at first oil.

Reading the presentation..... "FID expected in H2-2025" bit has caught my attention....Not Q4 but H2.

My read of that is FID will be announced on the heels of the Navitas SGM 7 September.

HI100, I've been thinking the same... I'm never selling my shares but at FID announcement we may see a steep correction (from the then SP level). That correction may be a very good buying opportunity. Also, as a rule of thumb, every 5% retreat is a buy opportunity for long term holders.

Supra3, yes and this is exactly where Harbour made the wrong decision. They had it in the palm of their hand but shockingly they let it go... Now someone else is going to monetise... Corporate stupidity!

Do yesterday’s SP x number of shares to see yesterday’s market cap. Then do the current SP x number of shares implied by today’s RI to see the mcap and you will understand.

Must admit I am annoyed at the forced dilution but nothing I can do as an individual investor 🤷🏻‍♂️

We are officially in Institutional Investor spotlight now. Not long before we see the FT article and this’ll see 100p+ by end-August. Not that it matters now (for me).

Sit back and enjoy the fireworks now

Daily volume above average but definitely no large buys around just yet. Understandable institutional investors wouldn’t buy before first oil but where are the hedgies? I expected at least 2 or 3 new players to build a 1%+ stake in RKH pre-FID. If they miss the sub-80p mark, imo they will have missed the 3x opportunity.

Re: Buy and Never Sell

Hi Ladytrader, if things go according to plan 60p will soon look like a great buy-in. I'm a relative newbie on the board myself but have owned RKH shares for 8+ years now. I own 1.2m shares wrapped in my SIPP, averaging 24p I think... The current SP for me is just a morale-boost. Like everyone I love to check the SP and admire my paper-gain ;) But if this gets FID'd I'd like to add to my stake over the years to come (every time there is a dip). Assuming things go ok in my life too and I don't need the funds, I plan for my stake in RKH to outlive me. Hopefully it'll be my legacy for my kids, who will collect those very nice dividends in the years to co come!