Member Info for BB_hoppa

Probing 86 a second time as I type. 85.8 bid👊

85p the new 75p until FID? Finally and fingers crossed!

A higher SP at the point of FID announcement is very very important. 🧿

I don’t think in Armageddon terms yet, but a severe correction (mainly in mag 7) seems inevitable now. Oracle’s $300bn openai project being valued at minus $74bn is front page FT. And nvidia results are upon us at the worst possible time. When I talk of nvidia I remind myself that at $5tn this is now a significant chunk of not just US but also worldwide MCAP ($5tn vs $60tn ex-US). The worst possible scenario this week is ok results from nvidia but still selloff. Add to that Powell backstabbing the US admin (dec cut odds from 99% to 50% now), add to that xmas low volume trading window approaching. It’s not looking great.

Brings me to RKH: I pray that we’ll be mostly insulated but this👆is exxxactly why I continuously cursed the timing of the FID announcement. FIG couldn’t have picked a worse time for elections. Complacent.

Black Stuff, the ~100m shares at 53p were a conditional handout to professionals with very different motivations (and credit approvals) than individual investors like you and me. They will most certainly sell them in full. At what price* is the only question. Their respective risk approvals are likely time-restrictive as well. So they will look to offload ALL within a week of the FID news. We'll first go to 125-130p (I approximate that range based on the 91p we briefly saw back in September) and from there we'll quickly retract to 90-100p, specifically because of this 100m coming into play.

(*) remember the 18m offloaded in one go on the 21st October? Risky, but it may have been one of the 53p option holders who somehow was confident of the FID. And if you go down that route... who was the 75p seller throughout October?? In a way this completely invalidates my central scenario because the 100m shares may have already been sold. If that's the case, then it follows that there will not be a retraction after the initial spike.. Fireworks!!

Bull.

Too many false-starts so far by one legged Pete... Until price action (with volume) confirms, I'm not getting excited.

~3m shares traded today, only slightly above the 90-day avg. So.

On my part I revised my FID announcement expectations to 23rd December Tuesday (based on FIG election date and Jewish holidays kicking in 12/12)

This is in the FT's "The Big Read" section today. Amazing sea change for the hydrocarbons industry, isn't it!! Unthinkable just over a year ago (pre-Trump).

https://www.ft.com/content/61eb395b-f28c-4add-b8af-b99d68ee6f86

One day (not long now) we will read SeaLion in the same spot!

You’d expect the SP to climb every day in anticipation of the imminent FID. But no. It is clearly being managed by brokers. Certain powerful interests seem to prefer the share price to remain low and sprint from a lower base when the starter’s pistol fires.

Are there any island folk on this board? If yes can they please shed some light on the main campaign themes? I know from experience that election campaigns in small communities can get very heated. I’d be very interested to hear for example what the islanders think about election timing versus the tantalising SeaLion FID.

Silver, I tend to agree with your sentiment but it isn't that simple. Think of the potential implications. CJA 1993 section 52.

FT today:

World Energy Outlook: In its latest report, the IEA said that if the world continued on its present trajectory, oil and gas demand would continue to rise and there would be no meaningful fall in CO₂ emissions. Until this year, the Paris-based body’s modelling assumed that fossil fuel consumption would peak this decade, a claim that was hotly contested by the oil and gas industry and the White House.

The Current Policies scenario envisages the share of EVs reaching a plateau of about 40 per cent by 2035 and oil demand growing from 100mn barrels a day in 2024 to 113mn b/d by 2050, underpinned by the aviation, trucking and petrochemical industries.

my note: every single year in my career in commodities these clowns claimed peak oil is round the corner and the number was supposed to be 101-102m bbl/d….

Beautiful.

As a lowly retail investor, I emailed what's her name the ceo at the time, not to exit SeaLion and that they'd regret it... I'm 200% sure their PR team in their brilliance dismissed my humble email as the ramblings of just another loser of a small investor. Why wouldn't they?

This now. Serves them right. Aaah, loving it...

In a dream, I saw the eastern sky grow dark. But in the West, a pale light lingered. A voice was crying, "The FID is near at hand, buy, buy all you can, all the way to 177p" ;)

By now we know this wasn't really up 23% but while looking at Navitas' numbers something else caught my attention: their market cap has reached USD4bn as of this week. A serious player by all metrics now.

I lost some money in Premier but more than made it back since we hooked up with Navitas. Life lesson for me is this: there may be disastrous situations (and the poor outlook may last for a long time) but if you believe you understand the fundamentals of an opportunity, stick with it and have the courage to buy the dip. Premier's collapse has left me with a 75% loss in 2020-21. When I sold what was left I put it all into RKH (as a modest top up) at 10p. So.....

Nice to see mid-80s but volume is non-existent. I'll get excited when I see volume.

Chat GPT's dating error.. This happens a lot with the A"I"s. As users we need to constantly remind ourselves not to trust the output. These are language models and don't actually think.

For my part I am impatient because we’re not in a great market overall. Those who look at the stock market and see a bubble are not few. Plus geopolitics is like a minefield with several wars (including trade wars). There is a big difference between getting the FiD news in a good market and a bad one god forbid. Id rather get this done yesterday tbh.

Well ShearClass, at least one fund manager disagrees.. Chunky buy-in today...

Low volume: I'm with LTT. Today's unimpressive volumes so far are proof there isn't anyone in the know out there. That in turn indicates FID has not been made. I'm not getting the fingers on the buzzers feeling either. Feels like there's another box which remains unticked. Something we naturally don't know / can't guess but material enough to stop the pre-FID last minute buying frenzy.

Next marker 85p now. Today’s clean AGM outcome and the strong 4% rise can only mean Friday will be even better.

For the life of me I cannot see how anyone would sell a single share at this junction!!

1 Presentation of 2024 financial statements and directors’ report

Would have been one of the key items the banks needed for their credit approval. ✅

Come on!! So overdue... Hopefully this sub-80p era will stay in the rear-view mirror....