Member Info for BB_hoppa

Sums up my position @Backagainbaby .

I have positioned 60% of my portfolio for the $150 oil. It will happen as soon as cracks show in the IEA's reserve rollout coordination. This is now a game of who blinks first. Bets are open.

Re RKH, shocking we are flirting 75p again...

At $150 oil there will be panic M&A activity. Patience!

Sorry but the guy's just not credible. When someone's being personal about a prediction and it shows, it looks poor. This video was one of those.

Having said that, he happens to be right in general. But not for the reasons he's elaborating.

Oil price is high despite the audacious (and desperate) IEA Reserve rollout, because Iran is a tougher nut than US and Israel though they could crack. Evidently the Iranian economic pain threshold is higher than the West's. They would be stupid to sign a deal when they are so close to the real effects of the SoH closure being truly felt in the West.

Knowing Bigly, he will double-down on this because the alternative (defeat) will go under his skin.

No. Exactly like Israel wants, the US special forces will now mount ops in Iran. They may even try the Urainum-heist again. Not that we haven't got historical precedent with the Embassy catastrophe.

I have positioned 60% of my portfolio for the $150 oil. It will happen as soon as the cracks show in the IEA's reserve rollout coordination. As of today, this is now a game of who blinks first. Bets are open.

The question is wrongly structured. Has IRAN agreed any of this?

Good one... Anyone trading oil, its derivatives, or oil-related stocks should print these words and stick on their screens:

"the market’s shock absorbers are running out"

And that, is the Iranian negotiating strategy. Their (regime's) economic pain threshold is far higher than comfy western democracies. Makes no sense for them to cut a deal right before the shock absorbers run out and give that card away for good. It won't happen.

Couldn't resist to seeing the SP at 78 :) Added 100k just now at 78.20.

Can't believe we're still here tbh but one morning we'll wake up and boom it's triple digits... Remember this post, folks.

Added another 200k at 15.5, that's 1m this week. These beauties will come soo good when cars start queuing up at the gas stations..

It's clear as daylight there will be no deal.

Painful gas prices in the West is the core of Iran's negotiating strength.

I added another 300k just now at 15.53

Santos, yes the government shouldn't. But the Admin very much does manipulate the futures prices. This is done through “friends” in places like GS who still have oil trading desks. The Autopen Admin before Trump was the first audacious one. Trump if anything would have amplified it.

Many have come up with the same analysis. Including myself. It's not holding though, is it?

Something's gotta give. And so far it's been the paper price. Brent is HEAVILY manipulated by a coordinated release of strategic reserves and log-end trades. The Autopen Admin had started the SR release practice in the early days of the Ukraine conflict and has been successful. Now other nations do the same. In the US, also the specialist banks with trading desks (GS?) simultaneously keep the shallow long-end of the curve under pressure.

Add to that the Iran-US coordination in releasing cargo from the SoH to prevent demand destruction.

So no. The price is controlled and will likely remain so in the near future.

Added 500k at 15.89 just now. Was oversold and this will look very cheap even if the SoH reopens.

Canaccord Genuity view

Rockhopper has provided a positive update on Sea Lion development progress and indicated the exciting possibility of accelerated development of subsequent phases.

Sea Lion development => ontrack for first oil H1 2028.

velopment works for the expanded dock and shore base facilities in the Falkland Islands has started. Additional construction of worker accommodation and other infrastructure will begin in H2 26. Manufacture of long lead items for Sea Lion is ongoing. Drilling is still planned to begin very early in 2027 with first oil expected in H1 2028.

FPSO refit => now shifted to Asia.

The Aoka Mizu FPSO is due to disconnect from the Lancaster field (West of Shetlands) by end May 2026, and will then sail to an Asian shipyard for upgrades to match Sea Lion requirements. The shipyard has been switched from the Middle East due to the uncertainties in the region. This will add gross c.$45m costs but post Navitas loan it will require only $5.25m additional Rockhopper equity. A small impact.

Possible accelerated subsequent Sea Lion development => faster growth potential. Navitas, the operator of Sea Lion (WI 65%), and Rockhopper (WI 35%) have signed an MOU for an additional FPSO which could increase Sea Lion production capacity by gross 125 kbopd, in addition to the Aoka Mizu's 55 kbopd. This was always part of the longer term field development plan, but there is now the possibility of accelerating that increase. There are no further details yet and as an MOU there is no certainty that it will convert to legally binding agreements.

Valuation, target price and rating

This is a positive update on both the Sea Lion progress and the possibility of accelerated field development. There is clearly confidence that the first oil target will be met, but we continue to assume in our valuation a more cautious production start at YE28. The shift of Aoka Mizu refit shipyard makes sense in the current circumstances, and the additional cost is a small price to pay for that security. Our valuation already included some possible cost overruns. The potential for more rapid delivery of higher production rates from Sea Lion is enticing. But it is still early in the process and there are no details of possible costs or timing, so we make no changes to our current assumption of increased output from YE32. As a result, we leave our risked NPV12.5 based target price of 130p unchanged based on our long-term $70/bbl Brent price assumption, and we keep our BUY rating.

CHINESE OIL TANKER MAKES SUCCESSFUL HORMUZ CROSSING AS TRUMP’S BEIJING VISIT KICKS OFF - CNN

I'm not American and cannot support Trump with my vote. I say that to disclaim my political views on whether he's good or bad etc... You dismiss the guy at your portfolio's peril. He has accomplished so much this term from a purely business point of view. And that should be the sole focus of an investor. Well, I speak for myself. I look at him purely from an investor's lens. This China visit is monumentally important and history books may well refer to this week as the summit that shaped the 21st century.

Just look at the line up:

President Trump is currently flying to China with all of the following people to request "deals" with China's President Xi:

1. Elon Musk, Tesla and SpaceX CEO

2. Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO

3. Tim Cook, Apple CEO

4. Larry Fink, BlackRock CEO

5. Stephen Schwarzman, Blackstone CEO

6. Kelly Ortberg, Boeing CEO

7. Brian Sikes, Cargill CEO

8. Jane Fraser, Citigroup CEO

9. Larry Culp, General Electric CEO

10. David Solomon, Goldman Sachs CEO

11. Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron CEO

12. Cristiano Amon, Qualcomm CEO

Trump will do extremely important deals with China. That's what he does. And this time he's not flanked by embedded saboteurs like Bolton etc.

- Taiwan is gone. Not overnight of course but alla Hong Kong. That stupid game is over starting this week.

- Chips, REEs and Critical Minerals: there will be a deal. We will know if we hear China soften its export controls a tiny bit, as a gesture. It will mean a deal has been struck to carve the world markets.

- US will scrap almost all tariffs imposed on China.

- SoH: an unnamed control system will be put in place. This, we'll know if Chinese vessels come and go with ease.

- Relevance to RKH: it will almost certainly be a supplier to the American sphere of influence while the American oilies themselves can sell to all markets including China. Oil price will be determined ex-Opec, between US, Russia and Israel.

Agree Nick. And imo, China will blink first because Trump being Trump will do a deal around handing them Taiwan. Watch!

We have to see through the narrative. I don't even believe they sought regime change beyond killing the key persons. No. Both the US and Iran are content with the current situation. The Israelis are also content so long as the impasse isn't broken (god forbid peace or something, in their view). The status quo is morphing into something new. We don't know what it is but Trump's China visit this week will shape the future of the conflict. None of the plausible scenarios points to a happy ending with abundant cheap oil. This is why I'm adding to my RKH position.

Added 100k at 79.99 just now. Nice 0.01p psychological cushion there :)

Trump will be in China this week. Wednesday, May 13, to Friday, May 15, 2026

It's widely reported in the media that Critical Minerals and REEs will be one of the hot topics, if not the #1 item. Export regimes definitely on the table, as covered by the FT last week.

Keep an eye on this as the SP may react extremely both ways.

Good luck all.

*good week, ugh!

Hi all, wish you a good weekend. Back from the Dubai (and Riyadh) business trip. Nothing earth-shattering to report. Life goes on. Except the KSA is unmissably hungry for business. I think we'll do well there. For those interested to explore, country-specific ETFs might be interesting...

Anyway, sorry for my short-term SP mumblings but I think the SP will have another sub-80p dip soon. Another great opportunity to top up, which I will.

Why do I think that? Well my chart-reading skills aren't really beyond looking for shapes and patterns (might as well be reading tea leaves). But looking at the April trend, it feels like we'll take a dip towards 77-78 again this week and bounce from there towards 90p again..

Good chance to trade!

Bigred, agree re takeover/out sentiment. As much as I like holding shares in RKH there is indeed a high risk of de-listing. And with each of these voting rights notifications, it does feel like we're headed in such a direction.