Member Info for BB_hoppa

@11.05p

Topped up 500k just now.. Irresistible at 8% down!

This was shared on another board. Essential read!

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Is-No-Longer-Trading-Like-a-Market.html

If you had any doubts that SeaLion would be developed....

Thanks for sharing, essential read for all oilie shareholders!!

Why wasn't there an RNS? And why is the share selling off?

Tullow Oil to redeem USD 100 million of 10.25% secured notes at par April 23

20 Apr 2026

Tullow Oil issued conditional notice to redeem USD 100 million of its 10.25% Senior Secured Notes due 2026.

Redemption set for April 23, 2026 at 100% of principal, with accrued and unpaid interest from Nov. 15, 2025 to April 23, 2026.

Accrued interest for that period estimated at USD 4.5 million, or USD44.99 per USD 1,000 denomination.

Redemption depends on completion of a consent solicitation expiring April 21, 2026.

Tullow may delay redemption date or cancel redemption if conditions are not met, subject to a 60-day limit from notice date

https://docs.publicnow.com/viewDoc?hash_primary=4D7A52B0ADE4F1BB6610AF83AA561C06CFD0281D

I topped up my TLW by 500k this morning and acquired some ENQ as well. Two best-positioned in terms of being 0% exposed to SoH and with lowest hedged production. Let's see...

Tony, do you know what percentage of their production TLW hedge?

AI tells me "TLW typically leave 25-40% of their production naked"

Hands on buzzers 7:59am Monday. This may be the last chance to grab oil/gas stocks and take a long Brent position sub 100$. RKH under 80p also very good entry point and/or top up chance. I posted before that I like North Sea assets. Now I like them A LOT. The market will eventually realise the SOH problem and the wider conflict in Iran will play out very similar to Ukraine and last for years. Dawn of a Golden Era for mid-size producers in the North Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Africa, Asia.

As for RKH: I think our brokers’ (arbitrary) 100p target will be in the fear view mirror before the end of Q2. Sooner if we read a surprise TR1 this month.

An amusing thought: the world is changing. Will the Italians now rethink their Marxist position on Ombrina Mare?

P.s. if you own/trade oilie shares other than RKH, I would strongly recommend you look at your holdings/targets a little closer at this point. Look for those who have cargoes coming up in April (from non-gulf ports onv’ly) and for delivery (ideally to Europe and Turkey) in May and June. Then if the info is available look at whether they hedge their production (a moronic practice imo but most do). I found one or two in that sweet spot.

Echoing LTTs views in the below post - Friday’s nose-dive in Brent is a joke. Typical. The markets (invariably) choose to ignore that commodities are physical. To further exacerbate their wrong positioning, they seem to completely ignore the extent of the damage in the gulf infra and more importantly the timeframes involved. They will find out, the painful way.

Re RKH: had been hoping for (but not really expecting) a dip below 80p - alas voila! Annoyed I missed it on Friday afternoon but plan to top up heavily on Monday morning if we stay under the psychological 80p mark. Had been underweight RKH for a few months but will now correct that mistake.

Good post by this oil guy. Worth following imo.

https://x.com/AlaliQasem/status/2045135149658992972?s=20

Oil just dropped 11% because the Strait of Hormuz is “open.”

Let me show you why the market is making one of the biggest mistakes of 2026

Dear medium-term and long-term holders,

I believe I posted some good analyses and views on this board. I would encourage you to click on my username and return to those posts over time. The best arbiters of truth are crystallised numbers. We shall see.

I have a 8-figure stake in SML, which I plan to hold. So I'll keep an eye on this bulletin board.

Good luck all.

What? Bluegrass... What did you say? "I" turn to insults? Show me. Which post?

Hear hear! And I suppose I am one of them as I traded out 2m this morning.

SP is 5.8p now. I have been on record several times saying Broker FV assessments are unlikely to make an impact. In a very narrow sense I am wrong, 46m traded by 10am (30% over daily avg) and 10% up, the Zeus note did make an impact. But in the grand scheme of things, the broker FV assessment comes at the wrong junction (like I said I feared) and has played a manipulative role. I say manipulative because it comes in the absence of the upcoming assay results from the current Infill Drilling Programme.

In other words, because of its timing, the Zeus RN has said nothing new and should have come last month immediately after the RNS update or after a couple of new IDP updates.

I repeat. Until we hear "Consistent High Grading" after a couple of good Infill Drilling results the company is unlikely be re-rated.

Beware the rampers, including the bulletin board sheriffs here, and brokers etc, all market professionals. You must see through their choreography.

Set your own tone. Patience! We will get to double-digits when we see those assays results.

375k and 400k averaging 12.45p.

Target 25p. Horizon: publication of 2026 Q4 results.

I took the following from this post: https://x.com/ALikhodedov/status/2043711552826585553

***

Crisis Categorization: Stock & Flow Dynamics

I’ve categorized the current crisis into three primary drivers:

A) The Structural Deficit Underproduction during the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) closure and subsequent ramp-up has already locked in a massive supply gap. If the SOH remains closed for another two weeks, we face a 1 billion barrel liquids deficit and 800mb in global inventory draws. While Gulf storage helps immediate flow post-opening, recovering these stocks would require 1.5–2 years of surplus. This suggests sustained high prices rather than an immediate global recession.

B) Operational Minimums (The "Tank Bottom" Risk) The "real" available supply is significantly lower than the 2 billion barrel nominal crude stock. We are approaching operational minimums—linefill, working stocks, and tank bottoms—that cannot be drawn without halting infrastructure.

C) The Imminent Flow Collapse The "buffer" of oil-on-water (sanctioned barrels and tankers in transit) that mitigated the initial shock has been exhausted. The flow problem is now deteriorating in real-time.

Conclusion: While Category A sets a high price floor, the risk of "crazy" price spikes and systemic breakdown is driven primarily by the intersection of B (operational limits) and C (exhausted transit buffers).

***

My take: as always, the short-term nature of white-collar remuneration (bonuses) incentivises the market to play the 3 monkeys when it comes to MTM'ing their books and crystallising losses from the long end of the curve. In other words, the narrative that Dated Brent at $132 is "temporary" suits the market. Will they be able to avert the reality? If you ask them they'll probably say look at Ukraine, $120 oil only lasted for weeks...

Why, I suppose because it has to update the market that it has overcome last year's production obstacles and it can pump oil?

Hi, I bought in last week, taking the view that TLW is one of the most highly geared to higher oil prices.. There was a great post here last week but I can't find it now... One that talked about how TLW will benefit from the current price climate and significantly improve its debt-servicing.

Any insight on when such positive update may be shared by the company?

Broker updates (that contain price targets or updated FV assessments) are generally timed to amplify the effect of recent material news. Contrary to the never ending proclamations of the rampers on here, Brokers have not used their ammo upon the RME update last month. Nearly 3 weeks now, surely enough time to feed numbers in an excel sheet and press a button. So no.

I would therefore include an update scenario to your hypothetical 10p case. For example, if there were at least two good results of infill drilling (showing consistency of high grades with previous assays that led to the good MRE), at the announcement of those updates a broker might come in with their new FV assessment, say 10p as per your example, and then the SP imo would jump to 7.5-8 and settle at 7p in the short run, until the next material news.

I yield!

None of you can say any of these with your own name on it. Stop pretending. We as RKH investors are guests in an Israeli house. Do you not understand the recent Institutional ownership profile? Do you think they would take the very nice view that "There's a difference between"?

Consider where your (completely unnecessary) words can go. Utter m...s.