Member Info for BB_hoppa

What a day yesterday... Phew, glad it's over! A little bitter as I was caught mis-positioned and lost money but hey. As I said I would I sold all my non-war stocks yesterday and added North Sea oilies. 8-10% in the red as of this morning and missed out on the 10%+ jump on the other side. You win some you lose some. Investing... I take some consolation in the fact that I didn't make money when the livelihoods of innocent civilians were being carpet-bombed...

Not a big fan of Bigly, but he played this very well - I must credit him.. Played the complete nutcase for a week and (against all the experts' opinions) got the Mullahs to back-down without bloodshed. It's a huge win. I hope this is it and he can take it as a win and pull out..

I have to say a 0.3p cost as insurance for a historical cliff-hanger is not high. Well-played london_ Also getting back in at 4.30 is an achievement as per current SP.

I was caught mis-positioned. Sold all my non-war stocks yesterday and added North Sea oilies. 8-10% in the red as of this morning and missed out on the 10%+ jump on the other side. You win some you lose some. Investing... I take some consolation in the fact that I didn't make money when the livelihoods of innocent civilians were being carpet-bombed...

Not a big fan of Bigly, but he played this very well - I must credit him.. Played the complete nutcase for a week and (against all the experts' opinions) got the Mullahs to back-down without bloodshed. It's a huge win. I hope this is it and he can take it as a win and pull out..

Re Potential sanctions against Israel: one must live in a different reality to believe Israel can be sanctioned by the "international community". A cold day in July!

I only ever mentioned other company names in a comparative lens, like you did using GMET. And in fact on one post today I said I'd rather buy SML. So, I rest assured my SML zealotry is not in question then...

While I'm at it, there were other posts questioning the parallels I drew earlier with an oilie... Sigh... I have no response to that. I can't promise I will not write potentially informative things and keep regurgitating what limited material there is on SML ATM. Maybe best if you filter me out. It's very simple and would be a win-win-win.

T-man, as you spoke blasphemy and mentioned another company name on the SML board, I looked at GMET. The answer to your question is simple, GMET's project is in the US. Hence the company has aligned itself more closely with the U.S. market and listed in the NYSE last month, raising ~$68 million in the process. They have therefore already transitioned from being a retail-driven speculation to institutional-grade development. SML has seen negligible institutional interest and that's very common for AIM shares. We will get there and I believe that's your intended point. If our current ID programme for the PFS yields consistent high grades, I believe we'll get there very quickly.

If the war for Hormuz worsens, SML will be the textbook example of panicky idiots selling and calm savvy investors benefiting. Which one do you want to be is the question. Tungsten is the "war metal". Both Tungsten and Tungsten Powder are extremely critical in weapons manufacture. Look it up. Even if SML is not yet in production only an idiot would sell when there are two large ongoing conflicts at the same time. My two pence.

I respect the overall sentiment to keep the discussion to SML. True, it is annoying when someone with a newly setup username pops out of nowhere and talks about something totally off-topic. But but but.... I only heard of SML thanks to a tipoff on another board and now have a significant holding. My heavy purchases of SML shares have contributed to your (paper or realised) PnL. Those on the other board who followed like me have found a fantastic company in a unique position and have pocketed multi-baggers here. Those who didn't are bitter and surprise surprise, are the board-police over there...

So my humble experience is being dismissive of other prospects is not a healthy investment strategy. There are literally thousands of companies out there. You will never study them all by yourself. It's your choice.

Vezzer thanks. Your post prompted me to take another look at EEE. If I never invested in any mining shares and had to take my first pick right now, I'd definitely buy SML and leave EEE to others. Won't elaborate the why as people don't like off-topic discussions.

It won't be a stellar day for the market. SML SP is taking some flack due to overall nervousness but will not be hit as bad as other shares if things go in a bad direction.

I posted on another board yesterday, looks like the chances for a de-escalation in the Iran war are slim now. Trump has little room to TACO on this latest Tuesday night deadline. Expect a 2-3% minimum retreat across the board if Iran stays defiant today. Worse if Trump then escalates overnight. The Private Credit market is worrisome in particular.

We are lucky at SML as it counts as a war stock despite not being in production as yet. Hold what you have, don't panic! And BUY if the SP weakens within a range.

With a purely RKH-long lens, I think we’re in one of the best possible positions. True, SeaLion is not yet in production but RKH is one of the shares that’ll be best insulated from a market-wide meltdown, which is coming imo.

I plan to sell all my non-war-share holdings on Tuesday and position into long-oil, specifically with the UK North Sea players.

Any thoughts?

Don't overestimate my input guys. If Iknew I would be running my private firm doing this :) Having said that, the question you're asking is exactly what analysts at the broker houses are trying to work out with accuracy. It's a sophisticated analysis but in a nutshell they look at the inferred quantity of the resource, take a certain market price for the commodity to calculate the value, then NPV it to today with a conservative approach.

So I'd say when they publish their FV assessments, take the average FV and as a rule of thumb add 20% on it. So if they come in at say 8 on average, I'd say the share is worth roughy 10p - that is, if the tings I outlined in my yesterday's post go according to plan...

I spoke too much lately so I plan to go quiet for a few days now and observe from the bench. In the meantime, I shall also remind myself one thing: there is ALWAYS the risk that things go in the opposte direction. This, we PIs tend to forget rather easily!

Excellent finds, thank you. Made me think (probably like many of you) what role the current wars would play to expedite the progress to production at Redmoor. Which then took me to the logical next question how a government would act if the shortage became a serious impediment to the war effort. Not that I think we are close to that point but here’s what I found. Emphasis on the last item with a reference to recent US Exim LoIs in the UK.

The United Kingdom (WWII)

The UK passed the Emergency Powers (Defence) Act 1939, which gave the government near-total control over the economy. Unlike the U.S., which usually returned firms quickly, the UK sometimes transitioned into long-term nationalization. 

• Short Brothers (1943): This famous aircraft manufacturer (builders of the Stirling bomber and Sunderland flying boat) was forcibly nationalized because the government deemed its management incompetent and its production rates too low. The Ministry of Aircraft Production took over all shares, and the company remained in state hands for decades.

• The Coal Mines (1942): While the government didn't officially buy every mine, it took "operational control" over the entire coal industry. This included the famous "Bevin Boys" program, where young men were conscripted to work in the mines rather than the military. 

• Shadow Factories: The British government also built and owned hundreds of "shadow factories" which they then paid private motor companies (like Rover or Jaguar) to manage and operate on the state's behalf.

And if he did, that would constitute the best possible price floor. We would skyrocket to 5p+ at least.

I view the asset disposal news as irrelevant to the share price. Of course the A$1.75m (£900k?) injection of non-dilutive cash is a major positive for the balance sheet. But it’s not a “liquidity event” at the £100m Mcap we currently enjoy. Would have been big 3 months ago, yes.

Also I reiterate, I don’t view the impending Broker FV assessments as a big positive. The FV was 1.9p for a long time and I bought in at 1.25p. So. And no institutional will add in the 4-6p range (which is what the short term traders dream of) when there’s no new material update from new assay results to confirm continuity of high grades.

Coffey - I wrote about this last week. I think he did add. Even gave the timeframe when this may have occurred. Last Tuesday 9-12am.

There will be many exit points along the way. Each investor, depending on what they want out of their holding, can pick a different exit point. For example at 6p I sold 2m shares because it came too soon and the unsustainability was rather obvious. I then bought back more on the way down. I did so because I plan to hold medium to long term and hopefully see this to either production or takeover.

I know this won’t be popular but I caution fellow holders to moderate their expectations. Following every big uptick these past 2 years RKHs SP has seen a minimum 15% retreat. Therefore I think we’ll now descend back to low-80s and trade in the 79-82 range while we the wait for the next big news.

Happy Easter weekend, folks. I continue to draw parallels between SML and my other large holding RKH (oilie).

The RKH SP had been dormant post FID news since December. The SP just made its first significant move two days ago, when an unexpected re-rating occurred. This was on the back of an “updated independent technical report” moving barrels “from the Contingent Resources classification to the Reserves classification”.

This is very similar to what we are waiting to hear for SML. The word “Reserves” is the holy grail we’re looking for. Hopefully (and very probably) the results of the Infill Drilling for the PFS will help move the inferred resources from current “17.4mt inferred” to a similar or higher “indicated” tonnage. Attaining the “Indicated” status isn’t sufficient but a very big step forward.

Here’s how it’ll likely play out for SML (the Mining Ladder):

1. Infill Drilling Results (Happening now): Expect a steady stream of assays from the drills. If we hear words like "high-grade intersections" we’ll know things are going well.

2. Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS): Once they have enough "Indicated" resources, SML will publish a PFS. This is the document that outlines how much it will cost to build the mine and how much profit it will make. 

3. The "Reserve" Declaration: Within that PFS (likely late 2026 or 2027), they will officially announce their first Ore Reserves.

And btw independent reviews are a legal requirement for the results to be published and should be integrated with the announcements.

So it’s:

inferred resources (we are here now) >> indicated resources (SMLs current goal) >> proven reserves (the publication of a good PFS).

Of course the SP will never wait for the above to play out. Pros will know when the reserve status will have become likely. Watch for unusual SP movements when there’s no material news. The news almost always follow unexpected heavy buy volumes. Seen it countless times.

For my part, I repeat, the words I’m looking for are “confirmed consistent grades” during the infill drilling campaign. That’s also the buy signal for heavyweight funds (or for takeover).

Patience!!

And it’s not even Saturday 🥴 ahah the lingering effect of yesterday’s 89p close🍻

Was curious what Argentina’s current warmaking capabilities were so I asked Gemini. In short the answer is they’d fare far worse than the 1982 war. Here’s more detail if you're interested:

https://gemini.google.com/share/c728ff1cb4e3

Thanks Daikihaku1. Your swift response makes me regret my direct words earlier. I apologise for not bothering to write your name properly the first time.

I’m not maga myself as I’m not American. If I were I’d be further right of maga, in the AF camp.

Whether it’s maga or the greens, it’s a very common mistake for the moderates to brush aside a movement by thinking they are “uneducated” or “not bright enough” to know what’s best for themselves. Perhaps they do and you don’t. That’s at least a possibility. Since 2000 this very mistake had played out again and again and again. Yet people don’t learn. You cannot dismiss a rival on an intellectual level and expect things to go your way. You must go in the field and do the grassroots work. That is the only way to regain political power.

Trump: not gonna defend the guy as he is not a good man. But despite the fool’s appearance he knows what he’s doing and I would not bet against him. He will win in Iran because he is unencumbered by the calculus of the future. The history-maker type, whether one likes him or not.